15 September 2008

Charts in the Babson Style for 15 September 2008


Some signficant carnage for the bulls, but not over the brink just yet.

Goldman reports tomorrow morning, and we also get the CPI which looks like a low and outside number.

Ben and his Merry Prankster at the Fed might be trimming interest rates a bit to help the banks.

VIX did a moon shot today so we are in 'dead cat bounce' territory. It can go higher.







FOMC Rate Decision Tomorrow


The Fed has quite a bit of incentive to cut at least 25 basis points tomorrow, and a rationale to cut 50 basis points if they make noises about last one before the elections unless the ecnomy dramatically worsens.

CPI out tomorrow will be lowballed if they can do it to rationalize the cut.

The economy is sinking rapidly and the banks need a steeper rate curve on the very short end. The rally in the Two Year Treasury today was breath-taking.

VIX is quite high. Start watching for a dead cat bounce at least.

Long Term Volatility Index - VIX


Time to start thinking about short term oversold and a dead cat bounce.