27 July 2012

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Mario Daquiri Spikes the PunchBowl, Or at Least Suggests It


The markets were relieved that the first look at Q2 US GDP looked good today (wink wink, nod nod) with such a tame chain deflator number. Especially after all the corporate earnings that betray a growing weakness in the real economy.

But the markets really took off intraday when Mario Draghi, Mr. I will Do Anything pledged to meet with the Bundesbank, presumably to lighten them up on the subject of inflating the currency and rigging the bond markets.

I've got a flask, and I am not afraid to pour it into the punchbowl and liven this snoratorium up. Capice?

Now, we don't know how seriously to take this. Maybe he has looked deeply into the abyss, and gotten a new form of conviction in the matter of a Bernanke like conversion.

But it is also possible that Mr. Draghi might have merely been helping a brother out, in the manner of LIBOR, you know what I mean?

"Yo, Mario. Could you loosen up and say something suggestive of an easing today? I've got these positions on and they're killing me.

Consider it done my good man."

We'll have to wait and see what is real and what is not.

Non-Farm Payrolls next week.


Bill Gates: China Has Created a New Form Of Capitalism

 

This is an old story from 2005. It is getting harder to find on the web, and so I wanted to copy it here for future reference.

I remember vividly when this came out, because only a month or two before Mr. Gates had reportedly condemned the Opensource software movement in the west as the work of 'communists.'

Irony is like candy to the restlessly cynical mind.

Now we must keep in mind that this story was written before the suicides at the factories like Foxconn in China, that exposed the horrific working condition in those cheerless and faceless manufacturing combines where people live and work like indentured servants or serfs. And we do not know what Bill Gates was shown or told during his official visit to China.

I imagine it was also before the Chinese provoked him for the serial violation of his copyrights. Funny how regulation and good government protects property from unbridled, unprincipled greed for the same people who abhor the protections it might also provide for their workers and customers.

And he was certainly not alone in his opinion at that time. Walmart was actually requiring their key suppliers to shift manufacturing to China to break the back of US labor for their stores, and engage a spiral of lower costs for a competitive advantage.

In the technology sector there was a mass migration to the big box factories with their wonderfully 'low medical and legal overheads.'

And I question how really 'new' this 'new capitalism' might be. It sounds quite a bit like the old British East India company to me, without the gin and tonics.

The neo-liberals economists were gung ho for this, and Clinton and his administration was smoothing the way for them, even before the arrival of Bush II on the scene, who delivered the coup de grace. By the way, remember that scandal involving large campaign contributions from official Chinese sources?

As I recall a certain number of venture capital firms made quite a bit of money encouraging that trend. And that has not stopped some of them from running for President. So one might not be hard at all on Bill.

But I did not appreciate his reported remarks about Opensource which I think is a marvelously capitalist free market force for the busting up of inefficient, overpriced, and underachieving software monopolies, which are too often only challenged by other would be monopolies.

This article struck a chord in me at the time, and I wanted to preserve it, and share it with you.

China has created brand-new form of capitalism: Bill Gates
Sat Jan 29, 2005 3:49 AM ET

DAVOS, Switzerland, (AFP) - US software giant Bill Gates (news - web sites) has high praise for China, which he says has created a brand-new form of capitalism that benefits consumers more than anything has in the past.

"It is a brand-new form of capitalism, and as a consumer its the best thing that ever happened," Gates told an informal meeting late Friday at the World Economic Forum (news - web sites) in this ski resort.

He characterised the Chinese model in terms of "willingness to work hard and not having quite the same medical overhead or legal overhead".

Manufacturers have created "scale economies that are just phenomenal", in part owing to companies there and elsewhere on the planet designing good products, Gates said.

Looking ahead, he added: "You know they haven't run out of labor yet, the portion that can come out of the agriculture sector" was still considerable.

"It's not like Korea, Korea got to a point where, boom, the wages went up a lot," he said, adding "that's good, you know, they got rich and now they have to add value at a different level.

"They're closer to the United States in that sense than they are to where China is right now."

Gates continued by heaping praise on the current generation of Chinese leaders.

"They're smart," he said with emphasis.

"They have this mericratic way of picking people for these government posts where you rotate into the university and really think about state allocation of resources and the welfare of the country and then you rotate back into some bureaucratic position."

That rotation continued, Gates explained, and leaders were constantly subjected to various kinds of ratings.

"This generation of leaders is so smart, so capable, from the top down, particularly from the top down," he concluded.

Official Corruption in Russia: The Torture and Death of Sergei Magnitsky


"Justice in these circumstances turns into a process of grinding human flesh, making mincemeat for prisons and camps. It is a process in which people can neither effectively defend themselves, or even realize what is happening to them. One can only think about when it will end."

Sergei Magnitsky

I know this is going to upset some people, including some that I like and respect. But it needs to be said.

There is quite a bit of romantic talk going around these days about what it is like living and doing business in Russia and China.

Although I have not personally been in Russia since the 1990's I do keep in touch with people I have known there. Less so for mainland China I regret.

Even in the 90's, during the breakdown and collapse of the ruble, and the wild west rise of the oligarchs and Mafia, if you were a pampered guest of the power brokers things could look pretty good, at least on the surface.

This is an old, old story. Life is always good at the top, and people see what they wish to see. If you do not believe this, read the accounts of visiting journalists at the Berlin Olympics of 1936.

Oligarchies are by their very nature corrupt. And the brutality and indifference to human rights that marks a government by dictatorship, of the supremacy of state power whether it is of the left or of the right, does not change all that much when it takes on the more finely tailored veneer of oligarchic capitalism. They just become more concerned about image.

Whatever one wishes to call it, crony capitalism, or to a greater degree state fascism, is still a system of the few exploiting the many, and enforcing their will with increasingly brutal repression as needed, just using different language and methods from time to time, and place to place.

People who believe in sustained, benevolent dictatorships are wonderfully self-deluded.  Or just rooting for 'the home team.'

Oh yes, I know, this story of what happened to Sergei Magnitsky was just the act of a few rogue policemen, and government and court officials.  Unfortunate, but nothing to see here, move along.

Fascism is corporatism, state sanctioned crony capitalism if you will, plus murder.

Even early on, as he was being lionized by his fawning corporate supporters in the West, Mussolini was little more than a brutal, narcissistic gangster and violent thug.

I am not saying that from a purely practical standpoint one cannot do business with or invest in any type of government, not at all. And some of the former dictatorships, or more properly captive states whom the West abandoned, of Eastern Europe that are now free are wonderful places to visit and do business. Even during their transition phase, which could be a little dicey, the difference was marked. Although again, it is not the same as home, and one must make allowances.

One can do business almost anywhere. Even a relatively small player such as myself has done it, I have had business dealings in well over fifty countries in my own modest corporate career. And because of the nature of what I did, providing communications to news agencies, multinational corporations, and a variety of official entities, not every place was cordial or safe.

But have no illusions. Not everyplace is the same, and not every corruption rises to the same degree. I liked China, and I love Russia and its wonderfully poetic people. But I do not love their form of government, even now, when things, compared to the Stalin years, are like a summer vacation. 

As for the West, with corruption as bad as it is, if you think this is really bad, then you ain't seen nothing yet. And I hope you don't, but the trend concerns me.  This Hermitage Fund fraud sounds like the bank bailouts.  But that is not the worst.  I have seen what it can be like, especially during a time of intense financial and monetary turmoil.
"On the night of 16 November 2009, Sergei’s condition became critical. Only then did they move him to a prison with an emergency room. However, when he arrived, he wasn’t treated, but was put into an isolation cell and chained to a bed.

Eight riot guards with rubber batons then entered the cell and beat him until he was dead. He was 37 years old."

Bill Browder, Turning the Tables on Russia's Elite: The Story Behind 'The Magnitsky Act'

The Magnitsky Act is currently being considered by the US House of Representatives. Here is a recent story on it by The Washington Post: The Kremlin's Blacklist.

And in addition to passing laws and pointing out the faults in another, and deservedly so, I hope the Justice League of America can take a lesson from it. Because that brutal carelessness towards the weak, and the individual, the progressive reformer, and the unfortunate other is exactly where they are heading in their untempered extremism and unbridled greed.

Violent, careless talk desensitizes a people, and too often presages violent careless actions.