15 January 2015

NAV Premiums of Precious Metals Trusts and Funds - Gold Rally, Swiss Made


The Swiss National Bank shocked the currency markets this morning by dropping its manipulation of the Swiss Franc in the currency markets against the Euro.

More on this later. They make seek to dampen the effect and diminish its importance, but this is huge.

One has to wonder what the SNB was seeing that made them roil the markets and take this kind of hit to their balance sheet, estimated at around $100 Billion, which is a good chunk of the Swiss GDP.

More on this later. Not many understand what is happening in the currency markets.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. unless you are taking someone else's.

Jawboning and perception management aside, this is huge.

14 January 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Same As It Ever Was


"We hardly need to be reminded that we are living in an age of confusion — a lot of us have traded in our beliefs for bitterness and cynicism or for a heavy package of despair, or even a quivering portion of hysteria.

Opinions can be picked up cheap in the market place while such commodities as courage and fortitude and faith are in alarmingly short supply."

Edward R. Murrow

Certainly sounds like a description for today, doesn't it?

The concept of alienation is nothing new, resounding throughout various authors and schools of literature from even the ancient classical period. We are strangers in a strange land.

In its most recent manifestation, in philosophers like Hegel, Marx, and Rousseau, it is the idea that in the past people lived in harmony, in a sort of natural state, and then the structures of production and civilisation caused people to feel disassociated, separated from the fabric of their own world grown to large for interaction, separated from their fellow men, and ultimately from creation itself.

We fantasize about the naturally good and brave pioneer, hands deep into the soil, living harmoniously with the land and the animals, with a natural kindliness and spirit of cooperation with others.

I have come to believe that this is nothing more than an echo of the transition from child to adolescent, and from adolescent to adult. 

Readers see the above quote and say, 'yes this is how it is.'   But they forget that this is how Edward R. Murrow was describing things in the so called golden days of the 1950s, which I remember reasonably well, and that were anything but placid and golden.  They were filled with turmoil, tension, and fear, that gave way to the youth revulsion, rejection, and revolution and of the Sixties.
 
Each generation grows up and faces the challenges of adulthood, and they seem new to them, especially if they have no real sense of history.    And this phenomenon can be exacerbated if the demographics favor a generation with larger than usual numbers.

We face NOTHING that has not been faced before, many times.  It seems new to us, because we personally may have been able to move through life in happy ignorance, while our parents and grandparents took care of the harder tasks of resisting corruption and fighting for their families.
 
The main difference is that it is our generation's turn to carry the baton, and burdens, of history.  And so we must brace ourselves for our duty, both large and small.
 
We can take some comfort from this, and some equanimity from this when the thought leaders attempt to sow fear, cynicism and confusion in the public. 
 
Terrorists, bomber, civil unrest, economic collapses, corruption and anarchists?  Read some of the less glamorous history of your own country and see what the last two generations faced. 

There is nothing really new under the sun, and 'modern' and 'new eras' are too often old cons and misbehaviours in different sounding wrapping.  Read the quotes from Wendell Berry in the stock commentary below this posting.  He cuts to the heart of our problem.  We think it is all new, when it is the same, age old struggle between the common good and private privilege, between justice and corruption and the need for like minded good people to associate for their own mutual protection. 

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery.






SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - The Dispossessed and the Alienated


"Most of us are still too sane to piss in our own cistern, but we allow others to do so and we reward them for it. We reward them so well, in fact, that those who piss in our cistern are wealthier than the rest of us.

Today, local economies are being destroyed by the pluralistic, displaced, global economy, which has no respect for what works in a locality.  The global economy is built on the principle that one place can be exploited, even destroyed, for the sake of another place.

A corporation, essentially, is a pile of money to which a number of persons have sold their moral allegiance.

No great feat is going to happen to change all this; you're going to have to humble yourself to be willing to do it one little bit at a time.

Every day do something that won't compute. Love the Lord. Love the world. Work for nothing. Love someone who doesn't deserve it. Plant sequoias. Be joyful even though you've considered the facts. Practice resurrection."

Wendell Berry

The Retail Sales results for December sucked out loud this morning sending stocks lower, although they tended to try and regain their footing throughout the day.

Oil caught a bid with USO showing a little snap to the upside. We paid 1.63 for full serve regular at Costco today.

There is no recovery. We are in the same 7 to 8 year financialisation with crisis cycle fed by goofy theories, deregulation, and political and financial corruption.

There is a school of thought that says this 'new normal' suits a goodly portion of the one percent just fine, and it is unlikely to change until the people rouse themselves. But most notably this Me Generation is too self-absorbed to do anything even for its own sake until all other options are exhausted. And the political class knows it.

Have a pleasant evening.