SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - FOMC Tomorrow - Chain of Fools

“He who makes a beast of himself gets rid of the pain of being a man.”

Samuel Johnson

Stocks were on a tear higher today ahead of the FOMC announcement on interest rates tomorrow afternoon.

The economic news is coming in weakly, and I suspect that the market is guessing that the Fed will defer on their first interest rate increase of 25 basis points for a few more months.

There is probably going to be a split on the the FOMC between the hawks and those who view the Fed's mandate a bit more broadly with an eye on the real economy.   I fancy Stanley Fischer to be the leading hawk, although others will speak more loudly on it, and Janet Yellen to be the leader of the doves.  Janet I suspect is also going to serve as a scapegoat and patsy if things go badly, but that is a thought for another day.

There are quite a few who identify with the ruling class because they think it also will bring them riches and privilege.   A lot of these fellows have sold themselves because they have bought the line that the moneyed are trying to uphold freedom and liberty, whereas all they are doing is finding new rationales for their greed, cheating, and looting.  Little do their supporters realize that they, in the end, are just somewhat useful fools, in a very long chain of fools.

Personally I don't think a 25 basis point is going to make a big difference to the real economy given all the policy errors and damage that the Fed and their Bankers have already accomplished, with heaping helpings of bad decisions from the political class.

The chart formations are inconclusive, so we'll all be watching what happens tomorrow afternoon quite carefully, but especially the world's reaction and what happens in the trade going into the weekend.

Have a pleasant evening.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Desperation, Deception, and the Elusive Denouement

"The real problem isn’t what the Fed may do, but the ultimately unavoidable consequences of what the Fed has already done. The cost of reckless Fed-induced yield seeking will likely be felt first in the financial markets as previous paper gains evaporate, while defaults on excessive low-quality covenant-lite credit will emerge over the course of the economic cycle, and the impact of malinvestment will be to limit productivity and economic growth over the longer run. This is all rather inevitable except in the eyes of those who haven’t watched and memorized a dozen adaptations of the same movie."

John Hussman, The Beauty of Truth and the Beast of Dogma

There was little to no delivery action at The Bucket Shop yesterday in both gold and silver.  Delivery and withdrawal of gold in New York seems to have become unfashionable since 2013.

As for the warehouses, they apparently continue to slowly bleed out bullion, as you can see from the reports attached.

We are all informed by very serious people that all of this means nothing.  Nothing means nothing, except whatever it is that they say that day.  Sounds like politics as usual.

There was intraday commentary about the latest public relations campaign against thinking seriously about the precious metals market at Bullion Bank Apologists and Precious Metals.

All is well.

There are a number of odd things happening in the markets.   I do not know exactly why they are happening, or what it all means.   But I do know that many of the 'explanations' for them which we hear are directed at things that are not under contention, as a dodge, and are often heavily layered with hair-splitting jargon that hits everywhere except the target.

And quite a few times they obviously and clumsily make stuff up, and then attack that to prove their points, when fear and intimidation fail.

I think we will cut this Gordian knot with a call to deliver that fails.   I think it will precipitate in the London market, maybe in Switzerland.   And other markets, like The Bucket Shop, will more likely be downstream collateral after the fact.  We might see some indications there, but not the reckoning if we arrive at the resolution that I anticipate..

I know that the wiseguys are quite confident, in thinking that no one will ever catch up to them.  They tell us so in words and actions.  But it is this very lack of reasoned judgment and moral sense that is likely to trip them up.

Maybe these jokers and their enablers are right.   But I certainly have not heard anything that would persuade me, particularly if you watch the tape during the day and see their clumsy antics close up.  No, there is no ring of truth in their words, just a slightly better form of childish rationalizations when caught in the act of doing something that they ought not to have done.

The big tickle this week is the FOMC meeting.   They would dearly love to raise rates, but are afraid of the reaction of the global equity and bond markets.

I have included the lease rates for silver and gold in two charts below, because someone asked to see them.  They are slightly elevated.   But should we even trust these figures?  When have the financial firms released numbers that were not to their short term advantage?   Libor and CDS much?   This is one of the challenges that makes such a liar out of the 'efficient markets hypothesis.'

There was some additional intraday commentary about The Corruption of the Institutions by the Powerful.   Moral behaviour is as out of fashion among the ruling elite as spats and garters, I know, except for some self-righteous Puritanism.   And there are consequences to this disordered outlook, large and in charge.

Let's see how the week unfolds, especially around the end with the mighty FOMC meeting.

Will they or won't they?  And is there any reason for a system to operate in such an obtuse manner?

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Le Cochon Danseur

The Empire State Manufacturing number this morning was a shockingly low miss on estimates.  No surprise to anyone who is looking at the real economy without the rose coloured glasses of bias.

There are plenty of poorly paying jobs without sufficient benefits that leave most Americans in the category of 'working poor.'   The vast majority of all growth is going right to the very top, and by design.

The Fed would like very much to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week.  It is almost like popping the question to the object of your affections for a first date at this point, they have put it off for so long.

They are screwing up the courage to do it, but the market volatility has them spooked, much like the reaction one might have feared in disclosing their tender feelings, not knowing the reaction of others.

The problem is that the financial markets are just a dancing pig at this point, without a firm anchoring to just about anything, thanks to a long series of monetary and fiscal policy errors that favor the wealthy and reckless speculation, both from access to money and tax treatments.

And there has been no reform.

So like that oncoming homecoming dance, if the Fed fails to pop the question this month, one wonders what will give them the fortitude to ask the question at the Sadie Hawkins Day dance, or even the Winter Formal?

Doing anything after the Prom will be tough next year, because it is a Presidential election and the Fed has learned not to get near the third rail of political meddling.

So they linger under the bleachers, revolving in and out of the dance, partying with the juvenile delinquents from Wall Street, doing nothing real and talking smack.

And the band plays on.

Have a pleasant evening.