28 January 2016

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Uncertainty and Risk


Stocks tried to rally early but were pushed back in what turned out to be a wide ranging day.

The durable goods number this morning sucked out loud.  Not much sign of recovery there.

After the bell, AMZN missed its EPS projection by a mile, taking the stock quite a bit lower in the after hours trade.

GDP estimate for 4Q tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.






Deep State: Inside Washington's Shadowy Power Elite


“Our plutocracy, whether the hedge fund managers in Greenwich, Connecticut, or the Internet moguls in Palo Alto, now lives like the British did in colonial India: ruling the place but not of it. If one can afford private security, public safety is of no concern; to the person fortunate enough to own a Gulfstream jet, crumbling bridges cause less apprehension, and viable public transportation doesn’t even compute. With private doctors on call and a chartered plane to get to the Mayo Clinic, why worry about Medicare?”

― Mike Lofgren, The Deep State: The Fall of the Constitution and the Rise of a Shadow Government


"Our analyses suggest that majorities of the American public actually have little influence over the policies our government adopts. Americans do enjoy many features central to democratic governance, such as regular elections, freedom of speech and association, and a widespread (if still contested) franchise.

But we believe that if policymaking is dominated by powerful business organizations and a small number of affluent Americans, then America’s claims to being a democratic society are seriously threatened."

Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens, Princeton 2014





"As a congressional staff member for 28 years specializing in national security and possessing a top secret security clearance, I was at least on the fringes of the world I am describing, if neither totally in it by virtue of full membership nor of it by psychological disposition.

But, like virtually every employed person, I became, to some extent, assimilated into the culture of the institution I worked for, and only by slow degrees, starting before the invasion of Iraq, did I begin fundamentally to question the reasons of state that motivate the people who are, to quote George W. Bush,  'the deciders.'

Cultural assimilation is partly a matter of what psychologist Irving L. Janis called groupthink,  the chameleon-like ability of people to adopt the views of their superiors and peers. This syndrome is endemic to Washington: The town is characterized by sudden fads, be it negotiating biennial budgeting, making grand bargains or invading countries. Then, after a while, all the town's cool kids drop those ideas as if they were radioactive.

As in the military, everybody has to get on board with the mission, and questioning it is not a career-enhancing move. The universe of people who will critically examine the goings-on at the institutions they work for is always going to be a small one. As Upton Sinclair said,  'It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.'"

Mike Lofgren

27 January 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Continuing Flight to Safety


"If we lived in a state where virtue was profitable, common sense would make us saintly. But since we see that abhorrence, anger, pride, and stupidity commonly profit far beyond charity, modesty, justice, and thought, perhaps we must stand fast a little - even at the risk of being heroes."

Robert Bolt, A Man For All Seasons


"I wonder, Madam, that you have not penetration to see the strong inducement to this excess; for he who makes a beast of himself gets rid of the pain of being a man."

Samuel Johnson, from Anecdotes of the Revd. Percival Stockdale

Gold continued to push higher today after some early weakness.  Interestingly enough the dollar has shown some weakness, but the overall flavor of the markets has the tang of a repricing in of risks that have been sore neglected, and for far too long.

The FOMC deferred on doing anything at their meeting today in grudging recognition of the deteriorating 'recovery.'

There was intraday commentary on the little noted 'informal one-on-one' meeting between Bernie Sanders and the President.   You may read about it here.

Hillary Clinton announced today that she would considering appointing Barack Obama to the US Supreme Court.

"Why Richard, it profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world... but for Wales?"

Let's see if the 'cup and handle' in gold can continue its formation and become activated.  If it does I will go over the formation and its implications.  But for now I will save myself the effort, since no charts may work in markets divergent from market fundamentals.

Have a pleasant evening.