The London Gold Float Estimates Updated

Tracking the gold held in London: An update on ETF and BoE holdings

"Just over a year ago, gold researchers Nick Laird, Bron Suchecki, Koos Jansen and myself took a shot at estimating how much physical gold was accounted for in London within the gold-backed ETFs and under Bank of England custody. The results of that exercise are highlighted in September 2015 articles “How many Good Delivery gold bars are in all the London Vaults?….including the Bank of England vaults”, and “Central Bank Gold at the Bank of England”, and also on Nick Laird’s website in a post titled “The London Float” which contains some very impressive charts that visualize the data. Some of the latest updated versions of these charts from www.goldchartsrus.com are featured below.

Given that its now just over a year since that last set of calculations, it made sense at this point to update the data so as to grasp how many Good Delivery golds bars held in London is spoken for in terms of ownership, versus how much may be unaccounted for. Estimating gold held in London vaults is by definition a tricky exercise, since it must rely on whatever data and statements are made available in what is a notoriously secret market, and there will usually be timing mismatches between the various data points. However, using a combination of published sources from the Bank of England, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), the Exchange Traded Fund websites, and UK gold import/export data, it is possible to produce some factual numbers."

Read the entire update by Ronan Manly here.

You should also have a look at The London Gold Float.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Oversold

Gold and silver remained under pressure from the early New York open today, falling to the hard support trendlines, and then bouncing back a bit into the close.

There was an intraday commentary that takes a look at the basic metals technical indicators which you can see here.

Gold deliveries on the Comex continued to be robust yesterday, with 757,100 ounces 'delivered' so far this month.   Silver is sleepy on the Comex in October, but I have included that clearing report for you to see.

Gold and silver are obviously undergoing a 'flush' designed to knock down the number of longs in the open interest.

The reason for this is open for discussion, but as I have said it appears that the pressures on the physical market are bringing additional attention to the paper markets, with an eye towards discouraging a rush to take down bullion out of a highly leveraged market.  And the holiday in China makes this all the more opportunistic now, rather than later.

Whatever the reasons for these things, gold and silver are both deeply oversold in the short term.

Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday, heading into a three day weekend in the States.

Let's see what happens.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Great System, Except For the Users

As you can see on the stock charts below, the two major indices are still winding within a fairly narrow range, with big tech a little more perky than the broader SP 500.

Stocks rallied on the ISM Services number this morning which came in much higher than expected.

On the other hand, the ADP jobs added came in much lighter than expected.

The economy would be great if there weren't so many members who are not in the upper crust ruling elite.   Why is the public cluttering up our magnificent system?

It reminds me of an anecdote from my days as a boy programmer, when the systems guys had the IBM 370 stable and exactly where they wanted it.   And one of them seriously said, 'It is working great now.  If only we could keep all those users off of it.'

The states have a three day holiday weekend coming up.

Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

Have a pleasant evening.