Memorial Day 2022

 

"But in a larger sense, we cannot dedicate, we cannot consecrate, we cannot hallow this ground. The brave men, living and dead who struggled here have consecrated it far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here.

It is for us the living rather to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced.  It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us — that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion — that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain, that this nation under God shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.”

Abraham Lincoln, Gettysburg Address, November 19, 1863


“Those who have long enjoyed such privileges as we enjoy forget in time that men have died to win them."

Franklin D. Roosevelt


“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.  This world in arms is not spending money alone.  It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children.  This is not a way of life at all in any true sense.  Under the clouds of war, it is humanity hanging on a cross of iron.”

Dwight D. Eisenhower


"One of the common failings among honorable people is a failure to appreciate how thoroughly dishonorable some other people can be, and how dangerous it is to trust them."

Thomas Sowell


"The only way to smash this [war] racket is to conscript capital and industry and labor before the nations manhood can be conscripted.  One month before the Government can conscript the young men of the nation -- it must conscript capital and industry and labor.  Let the officers and the directors and the high-powered executives of our armament factories and our munitions makers and our shipbuilders and our airplane builders and the manufacturers of all the other things that provide profit in war time as well as the bankers and the speculators, be conscripted -- to get $30 a month, the same wage as the lads in the trenches get."

Major General Smedley Butler


"War against a foreign country only happens when the moneyed classes think they are going to profit from it."

George Orwell


"Wars do not usually result from just causes but from pretexts.  There probably never was a just cause why men should slaughter each other by wholesale, but there are such things as ambition, selfishness, folly, madness, in communities as in individuals, which become blind and bloodthirsty, not to be appeased save by havoc, and generally by the killing of somebody else than themselves. 

You don’t know the horrible aspects of war.   I’ve been through two wars and I know.  I’ve seen cities and homes in ashes.  I’ve seen thousands of men lying on the ground, their dead faces looking up at the skies.  Some of you young men think that war is all glamour and glory, but let me tell you, boys, it is all Hell."

William Tecumseh Sherman, address to the Michigan Military Academy, 19 June 1879

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Fearless, Into a Three Day Weekend - CrashTrak

 

"Bear market rallies, or 'relief rallies,' are sharp upward spikes in prices on the US equity markets.  They are fed by short covering.  Those who are short, or have positions based on the assumption that the stock market is going lower, are forced to buy stocks either from fear of losses, or because they are undercapitalized and overleveraged.  The leverage may be in terms of time (as in the case of stock options) or money (margin).

The bear market rally consists of a violent opening spike.  That spike will be up to the nearest strong overhead resistance as the short sellers panic.  Then the market will pull back, because there are no serious buyers yet to sustain the prices, and the early shorts have covered.  Also, insiders will begin to feed their dog stocks into the public markets.

The prices will pull back to the nearest support.  Once the bulls feel confident again, the buying will resume, this time more slowly as naive speculators begin to succumb to the 'good news.'  The highwater mark of the opening price spike will be a definite target for this secondary move higher.  Often the initial effort to find support fails, and the bullish sentiment will pull back and try to find stronger support from which to resume the price advance.

Very infrequently there is a 'failure to rally' and a failure to find support at a near support level.  Buyers (also known as 'the greater fool') are not to be found, and the dip buyers panic, and a freefall ensues.  This also can be quite breath-taking, as the insiders are selling not buying, and the small speculators are exhausted and starting to panic.  This is an uncommon event, but can be quite damaging if you are caught on the wrong side of it.  This is how we came up with the term 'chasing nickels on the freeway' to describe it.  Buying the dip in price in bull markets is easy money; buying the dip in bear markets is for gamblers.

The best way for most traders to play these markets is to stay out. The opportunity to be whipsawed is very high. Take a break. Go for a walk. The market will always be there. The greed of 'lost profits' pulls you back in, and then fear will take you out, on a stretcher if you are not careful. 

Controlling one's emotions in volatile markets is the primary challenge for experienced traders."

Jesse, Bear Market Rallies, 17 July 2008


US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day observance. 

Stocks were in rally mode today, what looked like a proper bear market rally.

Considering we have seven weeks of weakness and declines as we *finally* set that second low we have to say that it's about time.

Now let's see if bully can keep the squeeze going, or not.

With the general risk on atmosphere, the Dollar and VIX were lower.

The VIX is now back down to its 50 DMA which has marked a support level in the recent past.

Gold and silver were trying to break out this morning, but were smacked down lower in the general exuberance. 

Next week may be pivotal.

For the rest of the world, try to carry on with US guidance on Monday.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Flamboyant Deceits and a Spectacle of Vulgarities

 

"Undeniably great is the mystery of godliness:
He appeared in the flesh,
was vindicated by the Spirit,
was seen by angels,
was preached among the nations,
was believed on in the world,
was taken up in glory."

1 Timothy 3:16


"And there is no more powerful weapon against the devil’s wiles than kindly mercy and bounteous love, by which every sin is either escaped or vanquished.  This lofty power is not attained until that which is opposed to it has been overthrown.

What is more hostile to mercy and works of love than greed, which is the root of all evils?  Unless that vice is destroyed by lack of nourishment, it will grow in the heart as an evil weed taking root, until the heart springs up with the thorns and briars of vices rather than the seed of true goodness. 

Let us then resist this pestilence of evil and follow after love, without which no virtue can flourish, that by this path of love whereby Christ came down to us, we too may rise up with Him." 

St. Leo the Great, Meditation on the Ascension

"The light will be with you only a little while longer.  Walk while you have the light, so that the darkness does not overtake you.  For whoever walks in darkness does not know where they are going."

John 12:35


"The unsustainable will not be sustained.  And it ends in flamboyant deceits, and a spectacle of vulgarities."

Jesse


The economic data this morning was a bit weaker than expected. 

The markets took this as a 'risk on' signal, thinking that the weaker data would tend to temper the Fed's desires to shrink it's balance sheet and raise the benchmark rates more than what the markets expect.

So stocks rallied.

The Dollar declined a bit back down to the high 101 level.

The VIX decreased further, but still remains elevated.

Gold and silver were hit with this risk on sentiment but also as a follow on to the recent option expiration.

They did manage to take back most of their declines by the end of the day, shenanigans-wise.

I spent a quiet day watching lectures about the Civil war, most from the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library by Mark DePue, and taking care of Dolly who is recuperating from her surgery yesterday.

This reminds me so much of the in-home hospice I did for two years with the queen.  Living for and serving the ease and comfort of another, day by day.

Painful but peaceful, resigned to the good graces of God.

Have a pleasant evening.