Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Survey Says - Option Expiration on Friday

 

"Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve.  I would like to say to Milton [Friedman] and Anna [Schwarz]:  Regarding the Great Depression.  You're right, we did it.  We're very sorry.  But thanks to you, we won't do it again."

Ben S. Bernanke, On Milton Friedman's Ninetieth Birthday, November 8, 2002


"I write to you from a disgraced profession. Economic theory, as widely taught since the 1980s, failed miserably to understand the forces behind the financial crisis. Concepts including rational expectations, market discipline, and the efficient markets hypothesis led economists to argue that speculation would stabilize prices, that sellers would act to protect their reputations, that caveat emptor could be relied on, and that widespread fraud therefore could not occur.  Not all economists believed this, but most did."

James K. Galbraith


“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding [or even seeing] it.”

Upton Sinclair


"Nothing is so unworthy of a civilized nation as allowing itself to be governed without opposition by an irresponsible clique that has yielded to base instinct."

Sophie Scholl

The Fed decided to take the easy 75 that the bond market smoothed the way for them today.

Stocks took it positively after a few starts and stops, and managed to come off their oversold condition.

Tomorrow's market action will be much more telling as we roll into another option expiration.

After a day of more shenanigans, gold and silver found their footing and bolted higher.

So we had a sell the rumor and buy the news event.

Let's see how the rest of the week goes.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Endless Wash and Rinse - FOMC Tomorrow, Options Expiry Friday

 

"When you have allowed sociopaths to erect a system which rewards expediency, cleverness, and winning without respect for human values, fairness, or even common dignity of others; a society which views compassion and a sense of justice as a weakness to the point of a dangerous deviancy; a culture in which harshness and crudeness and the abuse of power in pursuit of even more wealth, or of the weak as an enjoyable diversion for the superior, are enshrined with a sign of growing strength the only virtue— with such role models and rewards, what else would you expect the highly educated but spiritually weak-willed and morally ambivalent professionals among you to do?

They will implement and execute to plan, under the cover of playing within the rules of a rigged game, with an efficient and myopically determined focus as they do with all that they undertake. They will march themselves into hell with a deluded sense of pride and high accomplishment.

And where do you think this madness will end?

Jesse, A Banquet of Consequences Part II, 20 November 2018


"A certain type of person strives to become a master over all, and to extend his force, his will to power, and to subdue all that resists it.  But he encounters the power of others, and comes to an arrangement, a union, with those that are like him: thus they work together to serve the will to power.  And the process goes on."

Friedrich Nietzsche, The Will to Power


Stocks continued to drift lower today ahead of the Fed rate announcement tomorrow.

Rumors are that the Fed will move 75 to 100 bps.

I think they will do 50, but I am not ruling out an easy 75 given the pricing in yields already seen.

The markets are oversold and primed for a relief rally into the option expiration.

The Dollar is at multiyear highs at 105.45.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - We Watched It Coming - Never Say Again You Did Not Know

 

“By means of gradual, treacherous, systematic abuse, the system has put every man into a spiritual prison.  Everywhere and always demonic powers lurk in the dark, waiting for the moment when man is weak; when of his own volition he leaves his place in Creation, as founded for him by God in freedom; when he yields to the force of evil, he separates himself from the powers of a higher order; and after voluntarily taking the first step, he is driven on to the next and the next at a furiously accelerating rate.

Sophie Scholl


“Hatred can be nurtured anywhere, idealism can be perverted into sadism anywhere.  The inferno could erupt anew anywhere.  The history of man is the history of crimes, and history can repeat.  So information is a defense.   Through this we can build, we must build, a defense against repetition."

Simon Wiesenthal


"Everyone knows that plagues have a way of recurring throughout history, yet somehow we find it hard to believe in the ones that crash down on us out of the sky. There have always been plagues and wars, yet they always take us by surprise. When war breaks out people say it's stupid and won't last long. Stupidity has a knack of getting in the way, which we would see if not wrapped up in ourselves. In this our townsfolk were like everybody else— they did not believe in plagues."

Albert Camus, The Plague


“You may choose to look the other way, but you can never say again that you did not know.”

William Wilberforce


What is surprising is not that we are called to do so much, but rather, so little.  Love and be grateful to God, treat people as you would like to be treated with respect, kindness, mercy and forgiveness.  Do not lie or steal or cheat or act with violence and lawlessness, do not be proud and look down on your fellow creatures, and act with honor and respect for the gifts of His creation.

And when we fail through weakness, we are readily forgiven if we are but genuinely repentant for our misdeeds, by action or omission.

But all too often we bargain away our souls, one piece at a time, rebelling from even these small and reasonable requests to goodness— and for relatively so little in return.  A little more money, some prestige and recognition from the worldly, more than the other guy, and a feeling of being superior to the rest of humanity. 

Those people are fools, but I am smart, and fully deserve of everything that we have been given, owing nothing to anyone, including God.  We are self-sufficient; we are like God.

And we may hold on to that poisonous bargain out of stiff-necked, stubborn pride and a willful blindness refusing to repent and admit our errors, until we allow them to drag us into the abyss, often bringing our family and friends with us.  

Misery loves company, and the sinful insulate themselves from a recognition of the foulness of their hearts by rationalizing their sinfulness by excusing it, and attempting to convert those around them to the same wickedness.

Even now most will gloss over this, or assume I am speaking only about their financial investments, or the markets in general.  Or those other guys.  Because that is where their hearts and minds are, with what they truly love and serve, to get what they want.

The worst may be those who embrace the leaven of the Pharisees, and serve some greater good until they kill goodness incarnate, and make their deal with the powers of darkness with their 'righteous anger.'

“Not everyone who says to me, ‘Lord, Lord,’ will enter the kingdom of heaven, but the one who does the will of my Father who is in heaven.  On that day many will say to me, ‘Lord, Lord, did we not prophesy in your name, and cast out demons in your name, and do many mighty works in your name?’ And then will I declare to them, ‘I never knew you; depart from me, you workers of lawlessness.’

Let me be blunt.   In the greater scheme of things the only thing that matters is your soul, for that is what this is all about.  

And most are just letting theirs go, little by little,into accepting anger and hatred, lies and violence and lawlessness.  I have seen it before, in the 50s and 60s.  Every century is like every other, but each think that they are exceptional, and that theirs is the worst.

It is a story old as Babylon, and evil as sin.

Stocks took a dive today, as reality continues to puncture the terrific asset bubble that was fomented by the trousered apes and their financial system.

Gold and silver were hammered today, as they seemed to be no haven from the selling except the Dollar.  Not even bonds.

VIX took a jump higher.

The impetus for this latest selling seems to be the notion that has been spreading among the trading desks and their media is the idea that the Fed is going to surprise the markets with a 75 to 100 basis point rate increase on Wednesday.

It's possible, but not probable.

Did I mentions that there is an option expiration on Friday.

Never forget that these jokers have no conscience, and thereby no shame, in their higher priorities.

The CrashTrak model is being updated since we set some new lows today.

I am struggling with a number of probabilities here.   Did we just reaffirm and more firmly set that second low, or are we truly into a failed rally scenario and a deeper decline.

A crash may be a misnomer here.   The average duration from top to break in a 'crash' is generally about 62 days.  We are well beyond that at 190+ days.

The selling is quite orderly.   And the seasonality is all wrong.  The VIX has not yet topped 40.

The dip buyers keep coming back in, dragged by their perverse need to beat the other guy.

Winning...

I am thinking this *could* be a crash in slow motion, thanks to the interference of the Fed at al.

Or maybe more likely the genesis of a grinding bear market as we had seen in 73-74.

I will be thinking more about it.

For most the higher ground is the place to be.

But if your greed drags you out into the deeper waters, well, enjoy.

Have a pleasant evening.