Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Plagues of Moral Hazard - Stock Option Expiration

 

“Against such foolishness we are defenseless.   Reasons fall on deaf ears; facts that contradict one’s prejudgment simply need not be believed – in such moments the foolish person even becomes critical – and when facts are irrefutable they are just pushed aside as inconsequential, as incidental.  In all this the foolish person, in contrast to the malicious one, is utterly self satisfied and, being easily irritated, becomes dangerous by going on the attack.  Never again will we try to persuade the foolish person with reasons, for it is senseless and dangerous.”

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Letters and Papers from Prison, 1951

“The point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.”

Garry Kasparov

"Everyone knows that plagues have a way of recurring throughout history, yet somehow we find it hard to believe in the ones that crash down on us out of the sky.  There have always been plagues and wars, yet they always take us by surprise. When war breaks out people say it's stupid and won't last long.  Stupidity has a knack of getting in the way, which we would see if not wrapped up in ourselves. In this our townsfolk were like everybody else— they did not believe in plagues."

Albert Camus, The Plague

And apparently our Banks and trading firms don't believe in risk anymore, either.

Stocks rallied on the usual nonsense including the worse than expected Empire State report.

The Dollar fell.

The VIX fell.

Gold and silver declined.

Why does the tension on the tape feel like we are setting up for a wash and rinse? 

Oh yeah, this is an option expiration week.

The war in the Mideast is escalating, slowly but surely.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Time to Come Home

 

"Repentance and forgiveness are the two great gifts of God, freely given. But there is the third and greatest gift, which is thankfulness. For with thankfulness our sinful pride is vanquished, our hearts are opened, and love enters. And a light comes into our lives."

Jesse, Love and Thankfulness, 15 November 2018

"We pray for the big things, and forget to give thanks for the ordinary, small, and yet really not so small, blessings.”

Dietrich Bonhoeffer

“People with advantages are loathe to believe that they just happen to be people with advantages. They come readily to define themselves as inherently worthy of what they possess; they come to believe themselves 'naturally' elite; and, in fact, to imagine their possessions and their privileges as natural extensions of their own elite selves.”

C. Wright Mills, The Power Elite

"The Pharisee took up his position and spoke this prayer to himself: ‘O God, I thank you that I am not like the rest of humanity— greedy, dishonest, adulterous— or even like this tax collector over there."

Luke 18:11

"All sin, indeed, when repented of, He will put away; but pride hardens the heart against repentance, and sensuality debases it to a brutal nature."

John Henry Newman

"Almighty God lets the sinner go his own way, for He has given to man free-will, and does not want a forced obedience, but an obedience springing from love. In his forgetfulness of God, the sinner squanders his fortune, the natural and supernatural gifts which he has received, using his natural gifts, his health, his physical powers, and his reason, to offend God.  The sinner, having forsaken the service of his God, falls under the dominance of Satan, and becomes the slave of his lowest passions, which are signified by the swine which the prodigal was forced to feed.  But the more he obeys his passions, the more dissatisfied he becomes.  No pleasure of the senses can give him happiness, and he feels an emptiness and spiritual hunger in his heart which he is powerless to satisfy.  He knows no rest; he only knows that he is miserable, and hateful to himself."

Friedrich Justus Knecht

"The Lord requires you to act justly, and to love kindness and mercy, and to walk humbly with your God."

Micah 6:8


We are commanded by God to love His creation and our neighbors, both the worthy and the unworthy, in this attractive but deceitful world.

Not for any profit, or admiration, or even gratitude which is often enough lacking in this fallen world, but because it is His will, and we are His— in repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness. 

He has chosen us, and called us by name.  Nothing else can claim us. Only we can harden our hearts and choose to say no.

And in the end, that is the only real tragedy.

It's time to leave the world of empty illusions, and cast your pride aside.

Time to come home. 

The highly optimistic rally of the week ended with profit-taking today.

What a surprise.

Stocks were lower.

VIX rose sharply as traders rediscovered the concept of risk.

Gold and silver rallied sharply as the very heavy-handed price suppression of the week of the Non-farm Payrolls report has helped to fuel a strong rebound.

Wash - rinse - repeat.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East may weigh heavily on markets as they re-open on Monday.

 Need little, want less, love more.  For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Gods of the Market, Idols of the World

 

"Then those who revered the Lord spoke with one another.  The Lord took note of this and listened, and a book of remembrance was written before him of those who revered the Lord and hallowed his name.  They shall be mine, says the Lord of hosts, my special possession on the day when I act, and I will spare them as parents spare their children who serve them.  Then once more you shall see the difference between the righteous and the lawless, between the one who serves God and the one who does not serve."

Malachi 3:16-18

"And so Jesus gave us a new norm of greatness.  If you want to be important— wonderful.  If you want to be recognized— wonderful.  If you want to be great— wonderful.  But recognize that he who is greatest among you shall be your servant.  And this morning, the thing that I like about it: by giving that definition of greatness, it means that everybody can be great, because everybody can serve."

Martin Luther King, The Drum Major Instinct, Ebenezer Baptist Church, February 4, 1968

"We poor tired sons of Adam need to be made young again.  To become children to enter the kingdom.  To have the mind and heart of a child is to be in touch with reality, unobstructed by the fantasies of the worldly 'wisdom.'  They are ready to receive the truth in amazement at what is there.  Children naturally have this wonder.  As we get older we can live in a virtual world of illusion, of our own concepts and making, and false sense of security. Return, with an open mind and heart, to the Gospels."

John Saward


Everyone serves something, whether they realize it or not.

Most people serve themselves, through the love of some vain idol of the market, whether it be money, status, possessions, or power.

Those who can do so put themselves aside to serve the Lord, or some ideal greater than themselves, which becomes the focal point of their energy and their love.

The Dollar and the markets reacted strongly to a slight variation in the CPI inflation data this morning.

The Dollar rallied sharply.

Stocks slumped, in stages,

Gold and silver declined.

VIX rose.

The direction of the markets was extended.  Today might have been a reversal of trends more than anything else.  The CPI data was merely a trigger.

Let's see how we go on this week, and particular into the weekend.

The risk tails in the geopolitical sector are much fatter than the markets appear to allow.

Have a pleasant evening.