30 October 2023

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Hurricane of Madness

 

"But in truth the whole course of Christianity from the first, when we come to examine it, is but one series of troubles and disorders.  Every century is like every other, and to those who live in it seems worse than all times before it.  The Church is ever ailing, and lingers on in weakness.  Religion seems ever expiring, schisms dominant, the light of Truth dim, its adherents scattered.  The cause of Christ is ever in its last agony, as though it were but a question of time whether it fails finally this day or another.

How long will this mystery proceed?   How long will this perishing world be sustained by the feeble lights which struggle for existence in its unhealthy atmosphere?  God alone knows the day and the hour when that will at length be, which He is ever threatening; meanwhile, thus much of comfort do we gain from what has been hitherto,—not to despond, not to be dismayed, not to be anxious, at the troubles which encompass us. They have ever been; they ever shall be; they are our portion."

John Henry Newman

"Imaginary evil is romantic and varied; real evil is gloomy, monotonous, barren, boring.   Imaginary good is boring; real good is always new, marvelous, intoxicating.   Human beings are so made that the ones who do the crushing feel nothing; it is the person crushed who feels what is happening.  Unless one has placed oneself on the side of the oppressed, to feel with them, one cannot understand.  Evil when we are in its power is not felt as evil, but as a necessity, or even a duty."

Simone Weil

"When the business-sharper is the greatest man in the city, and lords it even in the law courts; when class-magistrates, bidding for high office, deal out justice according to the rank of the criminal; when exchanges are turned into great gambling-houses, and senators and men of title are the chief gamblers; when, in short, 'corruption is universal, when there is increasing audacity, increasing greed, increasing fraud, increasing impurity, and these are fed by increasing indulgence and ostentation; when a considerable number of trials in the courts of law bring out the fact that the country in general is now regarded as a prey, upon which any number of vultures, scenting it from afar, may safely light and securely gorge themselves; when the foul tribe is amply replenished by its congeners at home, and foreign invaders find any number of men, bearing good names, ready to assist them in robberies far more cruel and sweeping than those of the highwayman or burglar — when such is the tone of society, and such the idols before which it bends, a nation must be fast going down hill.

A more repulsive picture can hardly be imagined.  A mob, a moneyed class, and an aristocracy almost equally worthless, hating each other, and hated by the rest of the world; native industry swamped by slave-grown imports; the population decreasing; the army degenerating; wars waged as a speculation, but only against the weak; provinces subjected to organized pillage; in the metropolis childish superstition, wholesale luxury, and monstrous vice.  The hour for reform was surely come.  Who was to be the man?"

A.H. Beesley, The Gracchi Marius and Sulla, 1921

 

The hour for reform has also come to another of the world's unipolar empires it seems.

Who will be the person to effect the reform this time?

Not a soul on the horizon that this political independent can see.

The Republicans have long sold their souls, and the Democrats are happy playing the 'lesser of two evils' while not letting much get in the way of their personal business of getting richer.

It was 'forget about the looming risk' today on Wall Street, also known as a wash in the now familiar wash and rinse cycle of greed and fear.

The Dollar, VIX, and gold all fell.

Silver managed to sustain a rally along with stocks.  

The war in the Mideast is spreading and intensifying, with recalcitrance towards a peaceful resolution firmly set on both sides.

Non-Farm Payrolls report this Friday, along with the usual distractions like the ADP and JOLTS reports along the way.

Be mindful of your souls, and of those you love.  For that is what this is all about— and not cheering on your favorite in this hurricane of madness.

Have a pleasant evening.



27 October 2023

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Tail Risks

 

“When you see a cloud rising in the west, you immediately say, ‘It is going to rain,’ and so it happens.  And when you see the wind blowing from the south, you say, ‘It is going to be hot,’ and so it happens.  You hypocrites.  You know how to interpret the appearance of earth and sky.  Why then do you not know how to interpret the present time?"

Luke 12:54-56

"We will not learn how to live together in peace by killing each other's children."

Jimmy Carter, Nobel Lecture, December 10, 2002

“Pity the nation whose people are sheep,
and whose shepherds mislead them.
Pity the nation whose leaders are liars,
whose sages are silenced,
and whose bigots haunt the airwaves.
Pity the nation that raises not its voice,
except to praise conquerors
and acclaim the bully as hero.”

Lawrence Ferlinghetti, New Poems, City Lights

"All changed, changed utterly:
A terrible beauty is born."

W. B. Yeats, Easter 1916


Are we not exceptional?

Are you not entertained?

Gold and silver rallied higher today out of their coiling patterns, as the war in the Mideast intensified. 

Stocks finished weakly again, grappling with the risks of the fog of war.

VIX rose.

The Dollar chopped sideways finishing largely unchanged.

And so it begins again.

Have a pleasant weekend.

26 October 2023

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Self-Interest Without Morals - Option Expiration

 

"It is no exaggeration to say that since the 1980s, much of the global financial sector has become criminalised, creating an industry culture that tolerates or even encourages systematic fraud.   The behaviour that caused the mortgage bubble and financial crisis of 2008 was a natural outcome and continuation of this pattern, rather than some kind of economic accident.

This behaviour is criminal.  We are talking about deliberate concealment of financial transactions that aided terrorism, nuclear weapons proliferation and large-scale tax evasion; assisting in major financial frauds and in concealment of criminal assets; and committing frauds that substantially worsened the worst financial bubbles and crises since the Depression.   And yet none of this conduct has been punished in any significant way."

Charles H. Ferguson, Heist of the century" Wall Street's Role in the Financial Crisis, The Guardian, 20 May 2012

“Leadership is getting results in a way that inspires trust. It’s maximizing both your current contribution and your ability to contribute in the future by establishing the trust that makes it possible.   A nation’s well-being, as well as its ability to compete, is conditioned by a single, pervasive cultural characteristic: the level of trust inherent in the society.  The more people rationalize cheating, the more it becomes a culture of dishonesty.  And that can become a vicious, downward cycle.  Because suddenly, if everyone else is cheating, you feel a need to cheat, too."

Stephen Covey, The Speed of Trust

"Capitalism is at risk of failing today not because we are running out of innovations, or because markets are failing to inspire private actions, but because we’ve lost sight of the operational failings of unfettered gluttony.  We are neglecting a torrent of market failures in infrastructure, finance, and the environment. We are turning our backs on a grotesque worsening of income inequality and willfully continuing to slash social benefits.  We are destroying the Earth as if we are indeed the last generation."

Jeffrey Sachs, Self-interest, Without Morals, Philadelphia Fed, April 17th, 2013
 

The economic data came in a little hot this morning, and with the recent earnings report flops, that served to take the equity markets down.

Gold and silver were hit rather hard in honor of an otherwise inconsequential Comex metals options expiration.

It's the spirit, never the substance, of the scam.

The Dollar chopped sideways.

VIX came in high and drifted lower.

The war in the Mideast is smoldering in a most ominous way.

The odor of the moral character of the centers of power is most foul.

Have a pleasant evening.