02 November 2023

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Where Are You Going, Lord?

 

“Seneca had made the bargain that many good men have made when agreeing to aid bad regimes. The Rome he has been trained to serve, the Rome of Augustus and Germanicus, was gone.  In its place stood Neropolis, ruled by a megalomaniac brat.”

James Romm, Dying Every Day: Seneca at the Court of Nero

"Modern capitalism is masterful at producing services people don't need and in large part probably don't want.  It is brilliant at convincing people that they do need and want them.  But it has difficulty turning itself to the production of those services which people really do need.   Not only that, it often spends an enormous amount of time and effort convincing people that those services are either unrealistic, marginal or counterproductive."

John Ralston Saul, Voltaire's Bastards, 1992

"Most politicians couldn't care less about the plight of the poor. There's so much profit to be made from poor people - think payday loans, high-interest rent-to-own stores, for-profit colleges, and overpriced mobile homes - that politicians and their crony-capitalist donors have a vested interest in keeping them poor."

Joshua Wilkey, My Mother Wasn't Trash

"We live in a world where love itself is condemned.  People call it weakness, something to grow out of.  Some are saying: 'Let each one become as strong as he can, and let the weak perish.'  They say that the Christian religion with its preaching about love is a thing of the past. The neo-paganism [of the Nazis] may well cast off love but, in spite of everything, history teaches us that we shall be the victors over this.  We shall not forsake love. Take the days as they come, the good with a grateful heart, and the bad for the sake of those which follow.  I see God in the work of His hands and the marks of His love in every visible thing.   Do not yield to hatred. We are here in a dark tunnel, but at the end, an eternal light is shining for us."

Titus Brandsma, executed at Dachau, 26 July 1942

"And Peter understood that neither Nero, nor all his legions, could overcome the living truth— that they could not overwhelm it with tears or blood, and that now its victory was beginning.   He understood with equal force why the Lord had turned him back on the road.  That city of pride, of crime, of wickedness, and of a lust for power, was beginning to be His."

Henryk Sienkiewicz, Quo Vadis

It was a 'risk on' day all the way, with strong rallies in equities.  Stocks went out near their highs.

VIX reflects this new wave of confidence, and continued to fall.  

The ebb and flow of fear and greed is taking back what was lost with the war fears of not too long ago.

Gold finished unchanged, with silver losing a little more ground despite the weakness in the Dollar, which continued to decline, in addition to the strength in equities.

What is this telling us?

It may become much clearer by next week.  Risk may recede from our perception, but it has not gone way.

As you may know I grew up in northeastern Ohio, and most of my friends from earlier days were 'salt of the earth' people, the children of the working class, such as myself. 

I was stunned a few months ago in a phone call to discover that almost all of my buddies from young adulthood after college are gone now.  When you move some distance away and start your own family you naturally tend to lose contact. Many of them worked in the trades, and have passed away. 

So its nice to hear from someone who brings fond memories of pleasant times, my good friend Phil who called unexpectedly.  He was always quick-witted and full of good humor.  We worked together after high school, which at that time was in an aging, if not deteriorating as it is all gone now, section of southeast Cleveland, in an old furniture warehouse next door, a cavernous place, full of opportunities for the kind of carefree fun and camaraderie that make a student's life more passable.

It's nice to be reminded of who we are and how deep our roots go, in sharing memories and laughs, shared experience from times gone by.  It is easy to lose perspective and a sense of your core being, of who you really are and what you believe, swept along in this tumult of events, and endless waves of mind-numbing controversies.  The modern world overwhelms and isolates us with the shallowness of its values, full of illusions and falsehoods, binding us to a wheel of fire shifting quickly between greed and fear.

Family and friends are always important, as well as the institutions that helped to shape us, and sustain us, which often remain there for us, as we travel the world, and through time.  They help us to resist the hate and the madness of the moment, and even if our knees are just a bit more wobbly now, to remain standing firm against the tide.

Such is His loving kindness, and tender mercies. 

Non-Farm Payrolls report tomorrow, and then into the weekend.

Have a pleasant evening.

 





01 November 2023

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - La Grandeur Mystérieuse - Payrolls Report on Friday

 

"I get tired of the darkness all around me.  The darkness itself seems to borrow, from the sinners who live in it, the gift of their speech.  I hear its mocking accents.

Oh, what mysteries will be revealed to us later.  How often have I thought that I perhaps owe all the graces showered upon me to the earnest prayers of a little soul whom I shall know only in Heaven.  It is God's will that in this world by means of prayer heavenly treasures should be imparted by souls one to another, so that when they reach their home with the Father they may love one another with a love born of gratitude, with an affection far, far exceeding the most ideal family affection upon earth.  

There we shall meet with no indifferent looks, because all the saints will be indebted to each other.  No envious glances will be seen; the happiness of every one of the saved will be the happiness of all.  Just as the members of a family are proud of one another, so shall we be of our family, without the least jealousy.  Who knows even if the joy we shall experience in beholding the glory of the great Saints, and knowing that by a secret disposition of Providence we have contributed to it, who knows if this joy will not be as intense and sweeter perhaps, than the happiness they will themselves possess.  How I long to dwell in that Kingdom of Love."

Thérèse de Lisieux

"'Who are these people, all dressed in white robes, and where have they come from?' I replied, 'My lord, you are the one who knows.' Then he said to me, 'These are the ones who have survived the great tribulation. They have washed their robes and made them white in the blood of the Lamb.'"

Revelation 7:13-14

"We all end up serving something or someone, even if it is only ourselves.   And we become defined by what we serve.   Anyone can become a hero or a saint— not flawless, but faltering, not perfect, but persevering, not proud but pushing forward often in fear and trembling, not losing their own way but following the light of righteousness and goodness, even while stumbling and going forward again.   Because everyone can serve, and serve well, if they choose something lasting and worthy."

Jesse, Heroes and Saints, 18 January 2015

"Do you not know that to whom you give yourselves as servants, his servants you become, whether of a corruption unto death, or of a righteousness unto life?"

Rom 6:16

"In the end the only real tragedy is not to be a saint."

Léon Bloy, La femme pauvre, 1897


The Fed had their interest rate FOMC meeting announcement today. 

They didn't do anything.

Jay Powell had his usual press conference.

He didn't say anything significant.

Markets rallied, taking the VIX back down to the 50 day moving average, which has been a lower bound for the wash and rinse cycle lately.

The Dollar chopped widely but finished unchanged.

Gold was hit and stayed a bit on the low end.

Silver had a wide ranging day with a deep dip lower, but finished unchanged.

Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

Wall Street has forgotten for now about the chaos the West is engendering abroad.

A banquet of consequences awaits.

Have a pleasant evening.



31 October 2023

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Into the Storm

 

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.”

H.L. Mencken

"Journalism is one of the devices whereby industrial autocracy keeps its control over political democracy; it is the day-by-day, between-elections propaganda, whereby the minds of the people are kept in a state of acquiescence, so that when the crisis of an election comes, they go to the polls and cast their ballots for either one of the two candidates of their exploiters."

Upton Sinclair, The Brass Check

"The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of.

The invisible government tends to be concentrated in the hands of the few because of the expense of manipulating the social machinery which controls the opinions and habits of the masses.  To advertise on a scale which will reach fifty million persons is expensive.  To reach and persuade the group leaders who dictate the public’s thoughts and actions is likewise expensive.

So vast are the numbers of minds which can be regimented, and so tenacious are they when regimented, that a group at times offers an irresistible pressure before which legislators, editors, and teachers are helpless.   It was, of course, the astounding success of propaganda during the war that opened the eyes of the intelligent few in all departments of life to the possibilities of regimenting the public mind."

Edward Bernays, Propaganda, 1928

"Power will achieve its murderous potential. It simply waits for an excuse, an event of some sort, an assassination, a massacre in a neighboring country, an attempted coup, a famine, or a natural disaster, to justify the beginning of murder en masse."

R. J. Rummel

“The point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.”

Garry Kasparov

"Many will become addicted to hateful and malicious thoughts and hateful words. Slaves to their desires, they will be ferocious, angry despisers of what is good and right.   With brutal treachery they will act without restraint, bigoted and blinded by clouds of conceit.  They will demand and find their delight in the pleasures of this world, and ignore their need to serve God.  They may act religious, but they want to serve themselves."

2 Timothy 3:1-5

Is was another 'risk-off' day, or more properly, a 'risk doesn't matter' day.

The VIX fell.

The Dollar rose on expectations of a hawkish Fed.

Stocks rose.

Gold and silver were punched fairly hard.

Tomorrow must be an FOMC day.

The US financial sector is the eye of the storm, the very heart of darkness.

Have a pleasant evening.