02 May 2024

Interlude for a Quiet Afternoon: Why do I blog?

This is a reprise of a posting from July 27, 2011 

I regret using the word 'I' so much, but that is hard to avoid when you are trying to introduce who you are and why you are doing something. 

I had completely forgotten about this, and came across it when I was looking for something else. 

That's one of the benefits of old age.  You are like a traveler in time, but slowly.  And you can look back and see what has gone before.

You can remember places and people vividly, that to the young are just pages in books.  

And you can look back and see what you were like at a different place and time.   Cringe-worthy experience, but it helps to ground you, and remind you why you are standing on the ground that you are.   

And to help you remain standing.

 

A Brief Apologia of Sorts

 Why do I put forward these thoughts? Why don't I charge for it, or take ads? Why don't I do interviews and speak at rallies, and direct a group of followers to promote messages in comments and 'pile on' to those who do not agree with us?

As I recently answered to a fellow blogger, because I do not need the money. So why bind myself to some agenda, even if a little, by taking it? I give out of the excess and abundance given to me. Yes, there are definite sacrifices and self-limitations, and they extend to family. And that is sometimes a cause for unease. But the necessities are covered.

Why do I witness to my beliefs, and alienate some worldly and influential people, and even believers with different viewpoints and prejudices, and incur the consequences of diminished opportunity? It limits the acceptability of my message in many sites and areas. You might be surprised, but it does. And it hurts. And the ability to see the ugliness for which people can be capable is discouraging. But then there are the consolations that seem to come, as they are most needed, from the most unexpected sources, the kind word, the occasional graciousness of the spirit.

This is not some incidental thing, it is what I am, it defines me. I am not my own, to do as I will. I owe a triple allegiance to the truth and what is most human, the very pinnacle of existence, by creation, by redemption, and by continuation. If I do not do good when there is a price to be paid that is in reality very slight as these things go, how could I expect to pay the price when the stakes are high?

What is it that I want? I don't want anything. This is why I shun the spotlight. I want neither money nor followers, nor recognition or fame. I want to be a simple, honorable man. Husband and father. And that is work enough for anyone.

What makes me think I can know the Truth? Why do I sound so much like a leftist lately? By the way, I find that particularly ironic, since I am a life long pragmatic conservative in the tradition of Edmund Burke, with a tinge of the libertarian.  It just shows how far things have shifted from center.

I have a scientific mind, so I do not proceed from the assumption that I know the truth in this world, as truth is a never ending journey, a way of life that one never reaches until the very end of this world. So I start at the bottom and slowly, carefully, work up from there, taking things where they lead me, constantly reviewing the landscape, continuously learning, pursuing an ever-retreating horizon, with the occasional view from the peaks.

If I have any fear, if there is any recurrent theme in my energy and my prayer, it is not to mislead people and myself, even unintentionally. I not only do not seek to promote a point of view with the misuse of facts, I beat my own conclusions bloody, almost every day, looking for any weakness and misapprehension, constantly absorbing new data and ideas. I expose myself to a wide variety of thoughts and opinions, almost to exhaustion.

Forecasting the future here is exceptionally difficult because there are so many exogenous, and yet outcome critical, variables. There are powerful forces promoting certain ends for their own benefit, but there are other forces working against them. It is a conflict, and the fronts are not always easily seen through the fog of war.

And so even at best, I know I am not and cannot always be right, so it is never an easy place to be thinking, wrestling with the uncertain and taking its measure, much less acting upon it. But this is where I am, and must be. Going forward, one step at a time, in fear and trembling at my own weakness and insufficiency.

When my site was improbably recognized as among the ten most influential [international financial blogs] by some very kind people, links to pieces on my site dropped off a cliff. Those in the blogosphere probably figured that since I was already 'successful' that there was no need to encourage it, since I was no longer a colleague, but the competition. There is only one competition that counts in these times, and that is to stand for goodness and justice in a terrible class and currency war.

And I also continued to strike out on a line of thinking that people in the financial world and the fortunate may not favor. And so it is not popular. If you want to be popular, tell people what they wish to hear, not what they may need to hear. And the greater a person becomes in the favor of the world, the less tolerant they are of contradiction.

Good fortune and wealth can be a terrible trap, the most ponderous of burdens, because we are so unwilling to let go of them, even a little, as they drag us down into the abyss.

And so the temptation to change my approach, to post hysterical (and not just hysterically funny) headlines and pieces that are misleading, to fan the flames of passion and prejudice become high. I can understand that. Isolation is no picnic, and the crowd has its allure. Everyone desires to be liked. I am human.

And it is because I seek to be truly human that I cannot be otherwise. People seem to have lost their sense, their voice, of humanity. How can I remain silent, when good and innocent people become prey? Who am I to do this, why me?

I do not seek this. At times I wish to run away, to hide in my library or the kitchen, rather than be taken where I do not wish to go. I came to the study of money for a blessing, but I have found a work. And I cannot leave it, because this is where I am meant to be. And so I am here.



01 May 2024

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - From Enemy Occupied Territory

 

"Why is God landing in this enemy-occupied world in disguise and starting a sort of secret society to undermine the devil?   Why is He not landing in force, invading it?  Is it that He is not strong enough?  Well, Christians think He is going to land in force; we do not know when.   But we can guess why He is delaying.   He wants to give us the chance of joining His side freely.

God will invade.   But I wonder whether people who ask God to interfere openly and directly in our world quite realise what it will be like when He does.  When that happens, it is the end of the world.  When the author walks on to the stage the play is over.   God is going to invade, all right: but what is the good of saying you are on His side then, when you see the whole natural universe melting away like a dream and something else - something it never entered your head to conceive - comes crashing in; something so beautiful to some of us and so terrible to others that none of us will have any choice left?

For this time it will be God without disguise; something so overwhelming that it will strike either irresistible love or irresistible horror into every creature.  It will be too late then to choose your side.   There is no use saying you choose to lie down when it has become impossible to stand up.  That will not be the time for choosing: it will be the time when we discover which side we really have chosen, whether we realised it before or not.   Now, today, this moment, is our chance to choose the right side.  God is holding back to give us that chance.  It will not last for ever."

C. S. Lewis, Mere Christianity, 1944

"This is how we know who are the children of God and who are the children of Satan: anyone who does not do what is good is not God’s child, nor is anyone who does not love their neighbor."

1 John 3:10

‘When the Son of Man comes in his glory, and the host of angels with him, he will sit on his righteous throne.  All the nations will be gathered before him, and he will separate the people one from another, as a shepherd separates the sheep from the goats.  He will put the sheep on his right, and the goats on his left.

‘Then the Lord will say to those on his right, “Come, you who are blessed by my Father; take your inheritance, the kingdom prepared for you since the creation of the world.  For I was hungry and you gave me something to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you invited me in, I needed clothes and you clothed me, I was ill and you looked after me, I was in prison and you came to visit me.”

‘Then the righteous will answer him, “Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty and give you something to drink?  When did we see you a stranger and invite you in, or needing clothes and clothe you?  When did we see you ill or in prison and go to visit you?” and the Lord will reply, “Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.”

‘Then he will say to those on his left, “Depart from me, you who are cursed, into the torments prepared for the devil and his angels.  For I was hungry and you gave me nothing to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me nothing to drink, I was a stranger and you did not invite me in, I needed clothes and you did not clothe me, I was ill and in prison and you did not look after me.”

‘They also will answer, “Lord, when did we see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or needing clothes or ill or in prison, and did not help you?”  He will reply, “Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me.”

‘Then they will go away to their chastisement, but the righteous will enter into eternal life.’

Matthew 25:31-46


The Fed sat on its hands, as expected.

Powell gave a fairly dovish press conference, dismissing the notion of rate hikes, and also of stagflation.

And the markets took off like a moonshot.

But wonder of wonders, we were treated to an afternoon wash and rinse.

Stocks lost their moonshot in the last hour and dumped back all the way to unchanged with a vengeance.

Gold and silver managed to hold on to some of their gains, but well off their highs.

The Dollar lost some ground.

Bitcoin is wallowing below the 60k level.  

Now on to the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.

I can't believe the utter repression being self-righteously leveled at university campuses and the thought police actions of the cancel culture.

This reminds me very much of the McCarthy era.   It is hard for anyone who did not live through it to know how intense the recriminations, name-calling, and hysteria had become.

"Are you now, or have you ever been, a member of the Communist Party of the United States?"

This is America today.  

Left or right, these pin-headed ideologues have no shame, or respect for the law and the Constitution.  

Ever. None. 

It's all about money and power— from the US to the UK, from Germany to France.

These are the household gods of the Western elite.

What are we becoming.

Have a pleasant evening.

 


30 April 2024

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Destruction of Leviathan

 

"What the age needs is not a genius — it has had geniuses enough, but a martyr, who in order to teach men to obey would himself be obedient unto death.  What the age needs is awakening."

Søren Kierkegaard, Journals, 20 November 1847

 "So do not fear, I am with you; do not be dismayed, for I am your God.  I will strengthen you, and will help you.   I will uphold you with the firm hand of my righteousness."

Isaiah 41:10

"Most economists are going to be painfully slow to change their thinking, particularly in the US, even after this latest financial crisis of historic proportions.  It is hard to change when one cannot even admit one's mistakes, and the green shoots of a false Spring bring out new hopes that old ways might still work once again.  The status quo often has a powerful grip on the levers of thought leadership, and a social science like economics is especially vulnerable to peer pigheadedness, even when it is shown to be flat out wrong.  One thing which is almost certain is that change will not come from within, but from without."

Jesse, The Federal Reserve School of Monetary Witchcraft and Wizardry, 28 September 2009

"Our Lord has no body now but yours, no hands, no feet on earth but yours.  Yours are the eyes through which He looks with compassion on this world, yours are the feet with which He walks to do good.  Yours are the hands, with which He blesses all the world.

Lord, grant that I may always allow myself to be guided by You, always follow Your plans, and perfectly accomplish Your Holy Will.  Grant that in all things, great and small, today and all the days of my life, I may do whatever You require of me."

Teresa of Avila

"Peace I leave you; my peace I give to you.  Not as the world gives do I give it to you.  So do not let your hearts be troubled or afraid."

John 14:27

"Caesar was swimming in blood, Rome and the whole pagan world was mad. But those who had had enough of transgression and madness, those who were trampled upon, those whose lives were misery and oppression, all the weighed down, all the sad, all the unfortunate, came to hear the wonderful tidings of God, who out of love for men had given Himself to be crucified and redeem their sins.

And Peter understood that neither Nero, nor all his legions, could overcome the living truth— that they could not overwhelm it with tears or blood, and that now its victory was beginning. He understood with equal force why the Lord had turned him back on the road. That city of pride, of crime, of wickedness, and of a lust for power, was beginning to be His."

Henryk Sienkiewicz, Quo Vadis, 1905


The mighty rise and are fallen, but the word and the spirit endure. 

The Employment Cost Index came in higher than expected, and so the selling began.

Stocks fell sharply, going out on the lows.

The Dollar rallied sharply on the bearish outlook for interest rates.  

VIX rose.

Gold and silver received their traditional pummeling ahead of the FOMC meeting.

If you are getting your information from the corporate media you probably have no idea what is really going on.  Except for maybe sports and weather.

"Many of us like to ask ourselves, 'What would I do if I was alive during slavery?   Or the Jim Crow South?   Or apartheid?  What would I do if my country was committing genocide?'   The answer is, you're doing it.   Right now."

Aaron Bushnell

Where are we going Lord?  

What are we becoming?

Have a pleasant evening.