16 September 2025

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Masterly Bit of Stupidity

 

“Woe to the shepherds, who have been feeding only themselves. You eat the fat, you take the wool, and you slaughter the fattest animal, but you do not feed the flock. You have not strengthened the weak or healed the sick or bandaged the injured or brought back the strays or looked for the lost."

Ezekiel 34:1-5

“Capitalism is at risk of failing today not because we are running out of innovations, or because markets are failing to inspire private actions, but because we’ve lost sight of the operational failings of unfettered gluttony.  We are neglecting a torrent of market failures in infrastructure, finance, and the environment.  We are turning our backs on a grotesque worsening of income inequality and willfully continuing to slash social benefits.  We are destroying the Earth as if we are indeed the last generation.”

Jeffrey Sachs, Self-Interest Without Morals Leads to Self-Destruction, Financial Times, 18 January 2012

"Most people do not realize that it was Adam Smith who wrote in The Wealth of Nations the famous characterization of England as a 'nation of shopkeepers.'   He was writing about narrowly mercantile nature of the British Empire and its colonial markets strategy. The exploitation of the Empire's resources and peoples by a few legendary companies is well known.

If one substitutes 'crony capitalists' or 'financiers' for 'shopkeepers' it might well be a decent fit for the latter years of the American Century, which is based on a regime of guns and dollars.  

Why is the American moment running out of steam?  It is probably the failure to move to a non-military based economy after the cold war, and invest the peace dividend into domestic infrastructure and basic technology development for peaceful purposes and the improvement of life, instead of financial legerdemain, economic hoaxes and frauds.  Having fed so well for many years on war, the crony capitalists have had to expand their operations at home again, and create new wars, to maintain their exorbitant privilege.

Jesse, A Nation of Financiers, 12 August 2011

"All governments suffer a recurring problem: power attracts pathological personalities. It is not that power corrupts but that it is magnetic to the corruptible. Such people have a tendency to become drunk on violence, a condition to which they are quickly addicted."

Frank Herbert, Chapterhouse Dune, March 1985

"The great masquerade of evil has played havoc with all our ethical concepts. For evil to appear disguised as light, charity, historical necessity, or social justice is quite bewildering to anyone brought up on our traditional ethical concepts, while for the Christian who bases his life on the Bible, it merely confirms the fundamental wickedness of evil."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Ten Years After, 1943

"Fear not, little flock, for your Father delights to welcome you into His Kingdom."

Luke 12:32


The West is slowly dying of neglect.  Of the neglect of oaths, of honesty, and of honor.

In the end, its a withering of character through undeserved privilege and gradual compromise with corruption.

This is the way of empire. 

Stocks did a pop and flop ahead of the FOMC rate decision tomorrow.

Stocks, particular big cap tech, is richly valued, with insufficient discounting of risk.

A fairly classic late stage bubble condition.

Gold move higher as the Dollar continued its slide, in anticipation of higher debt and lower rates.

It's a matter of supply and demand, but finally comes down to a failure of faith in credit.

Again, the failure of character in leadership.

It is likely that the Fed will cut 25 bp tomorrow, and make some noise about data dependency.

The precious metals are typically sold on FOMC and triple witch option events, often after a grand run up.  

In the short run the markets are a game of Liar's Poker.  But even liars can overextend themselves.

 Let's see if they can break that pattern this time. 

Our leader is doing his best to compromise the nominal independence of the Fed, such as it is, a creature of the Banks.

This is no anomaly.  He is compromising government end to end, from the courts to foreign policy to the Congress.  Business and the media follow power and money, except for a few exceptional occasions.

There is certainly some historic precedent for all of this.  

And yet this is just the visible manifestation, not the real power behind it all, which resides in the shadows.   It is forbidden to speak of them, and those who stray too close are warned, and then silenced. 

In the short term it is all about the behaviour of the enablers — a willful compromising of conscience, a lack of character and empathy in the professional class, and an inability to love anything more than the lowest of their appetites. 

This too will end, and like rats the hollowed out enablers will scatter.  But the powers of darkness remain.

"In the history of every great catastrophe, you will find that some masterly bit of stupidity sets fire to the oil-soaked rags."

Edwin Lefèvre, The Game Got Them, Everybody’s Magazine 1908

Have a pleasant evening. 

15 September 2025

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Empires of Fear and Anger, Force and Fraud

 

"In the federal elections of November 1932, the last free election in that nation for some time, the NSDAP received 33% of the national vote, and 196 of the seats.

In a January 1933 compromise promoted heavily by industrialists who feared socialism and communism, the NSDAP party leader was named chancellor of a coalition government.

In February 1933 there was a fire that destroyed part of the Reichstag building that was blamed on leftists and communists.   The government passed the Decree of the Reich President for the Protection of People and State, Reichstagsbrandverordnung, which suspended civil liberties and outlawed all other political parties.  This is known as Machtergreifung, the seizure of power.

In March 1933, in an election marked by violent repression and the silencing of most political opponents, starting with the left but moving quickly to include the Social Democrats and the Zentrum, or Center Party, the NSDAP received 43% of the national vote, and 288 seats out of 647.

The Enabling Act, Gesetz zur Behebung der Not von Volk und Reich, was passed, and plenary power was granted to the Chancellor to enact laws without the involvement of the Reichstag.

By July 1933 there were about 27,000 key political leaders and journalists, in opposition to the NSDAP, housed in newly established concentration camps in Oranienburgm Esterwegen, Dachau, and Lichtenburg.

There were no more meaningful elections until 1949.

In their fear and anger the German people reached for a strong and decisive leader who promised them a return to normalcy and freedom from their confusion, and sought to preserve themselves as they wished to be with the heady fumes of power.   

The great majority of the people looked on, and did nothing.

And the rest, as they say, is history."

Jesse, Fear, Intolerance, and Anger, 12 December 2015

There will be a packet of economic data out tomorrow including ex-im prices and retail sales.

But of course the Big Tickle will be the Fed rate decision on Wednesday afternoon.

I think it is reasonable to expect a 25 basis point cut, with words about data vigilance to follow.

We *might* see a 'sell the news' phenomenon.

There will be the September Option expiration of the triple witch variety on Friday.   

Gold and silver both cracked higher today, with gold punching through 3700 and sticking the close, and silver joining in by breaking 43.

Inflation with a slowing economy looks to be developing.  It takes a special level of unfortunate circumstance or government incompetency to achieve this unusual type of stagflationary outcome.

But Donnie and his merry pranksters may be just the crew for the job.

VIX ticked UP today to the 200 DMA, despite the soaring equity markets.

Low rumbling underneath the surface perhaps, signalling a nascent movement to risk aversion.

But, let's see what happens.

The extension of the probability tails, and ignoring of major exogenous risks, is setting up what *could be* a rather nasty wash and rinse.

The Netanyahu and Zelensky governments seem to be pushing for an escalation of US involvement in their regional conflicts.  And they have their usual neo-con cheerleaders in government and media here. 

In real inflation adjusted terms we may be seeing a significant high in some market prices that could stand for some time.   

The unsustainable is maintained through force and fraud. 

As fraud loses its effectiveness, force increases. 

 Madness is in the air.  The metals have caught a whiff of it.

Have a pleasant evening. 

  

12 September 2025

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Dread Gathering of Beasts

 

“Above all, don't lie to yourself.  A man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others.  And having no respect he ceases to love. and having no love, he gives himself over to passions and animal pleasures.”

Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov, 1880

“Truth and the hatred of truth come into our world together. As soon as truth appears, it is regarded as an enemy.   They remain in ignorance as long as they hate, and they hate unjustly as long as they remain in ignorance.”

Tertullian, Apologeticus, 197

"Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it. And what is this liberty which must lie in the hearts of men and women?  It is not the ruthless, the unbridled will; it is not freedom to do as one likes.  That is the denial of liberty, and leads straight to its overthrow.  A society in which men recognize no check upon their freedom soon becomes a society where freedom is the possession of only a savage few, as we have learned to our sorrow."

Judge Learned Hand, The Spirit of Liberty, 21 May 1944

“Hell has three gates: lust, anger and greed.”

Ved Vyasa, Mahābhārata महाभारतम्

"In the last days perilous times shall come.  For there shall be men who are lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, proud, evil speakers, disobedient to their parents, unthankful, impure, without natural affection, trucebreakers, false accusers, without temperance, without meekness, without goodness, traitors, rash, puffed up, lovers of pleasures more than lovers of God."

2 Timothy 3:1-4

Stocks rose to another high. 

This is a 'vanity bubble,' a transparent swelling of lies.

Gold bounced back, silver rallied with stocks.

VIX fell again.

The Dollar chopped around.

We are one event away from a historic reckoning for this cult of idolatry, a dread gathering of beasts. 

Have a pleasant weekend.