Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Illuminating Reality of the Spirit

 

“There are only two kinds of people in the end — those who say to God, 'Thy will be done,' and those to whom God says, in the end, 'Thy will be done.' All that are in Hell choose it. Without that self-choice there could be no Hell.”

C.S. Lewis, The Great Divorce, 1945

"It is never a minor thing to know God’s will and not do it. God calls this sin. At times we deceive ourselves into thinking that good intentions equal obedient actions. They do not. A good intention without corresponding activity is disobedience. When we encounter God and He gives us a direction, it is not enough to write down the date in our spiritual journal, or even to tell our friends and church of our 'decision.' God’s call is not to make a decision but to obey! Deciding to obey is not equal to obeying. A good intention without corresponding activity is disobedience."

Henry Blackaby, Experiencing God, 2007

"Expedient amorality is de rigueur these days among the entitled class of power brokers who serve the system, which in their minds is themselves, as a privileged, ruling class.  Capitalism does not demand that we destroy human lives for the sake of maximizing profits using any and all means which that end justifies.  The Market is not an end to itself.  The Market is not God. 

This is beyond capitalism.  It is a pernicious form of selfishness and self-indulgence, a privileged arrogance.  It is as old as Babylon, and evil as sin."

Jesse, The Careerists and the Banality of Evil, 24 July 2012

“Your cravings as a human animal do not become a prayer just because it is God whom you ask to attend to them. God does not die on the day when we cease to believe in a personal deity. But we die on the day when our lives cease to be illumined by the steady radiance, renewed daily, of a wonder the source of which is beyond all reason."

Dag Hammarskjöld, Markings, 1963

"Returning to the question of hell, whether it is empty or not: unfortunately, I fear that many souls go there, all those who persevere in their choice of distancing themselves from God to the end. Being in the kingdom of hate, damned souls are subjected to the torment of the demons and to the sufferings they reciprocally inflict on one another. In the course of my exorcisms I have understood that there is a hierarchy of demons, just as there is with angels. More than once I have found myself involved with demons who were possessing a person and who demonstrated a terror toward their leaders.

The final criterion of our judgment will be the love that we have had toward God and toward our brothers and sisters. How, then, will this particular judgment occur? At times, I run into persons who are convinced that immediately after death they will meet Jesus in person and that He will give them a piece of His mind for some of their dolorous affairs. Frankly, I do not think that it will happen like this. Rather, I believe that, immediately after death, each of us will appear before Jesus, but it will not be the Lord who will review our lives and examine the good and the bad each of us has done. We ourselves shall do it, in truth and honesty.

Each one will have before himself the complete vision of his life, and he will immediately see the real spiritual state of his soul and will go where his situation will bring him. It will be a solemn moment of self-truth, a tremendous and definitive moment, as definitive as the place where we shall be sent. Let us consider the case of the person who goes to purgatory.

It will involve the sorrow of not immediately going to paradise that will make him understand that his purification on earth was not complete, and he will feel the immediate need of purifying himself. His desire of acceding to the vision of God will be strong, and the desire for liberation from the weight of the pains accumulated during his earthly life will be compelling."

Gabrielle Amorth, An Exorcist Describes Death and Judgement, 25 October 2019

Stocks did their usual wartime boogie woogie today, ending in a big pop n' flop.

Bessent and his Band of Merry Pranksters are pushing the markets around using the futures, a tactic that was pioneered by Robert Rubin when he was the Treasury Secretary.  If you don't believe me, go look it up.

Gold and silver rallied and then fell back a little.  They seem to be reacting to the gyrations of the dollar.

VIX fell back to the 20 EMA.  

We will be getting some consumer inflation data tomorrow.  It is for February and is already outdated by the onset of this latest military adventure.

Almost nothing that comes out of the Trump Administration is true, especially if it involves money, shameless scandals, or brazen acts of lawlessness.   They tend to make statements during the day to boost the markets that later prove to be fictional.  

The risk markets are very important symbols of Trumpian triumphalism.

As Brian Allen noted this evening:

The last 30 minutes on Wall Street:  The US Energy Secretary posted that a ship had safely transited the Strait of Hormuz.  Markets surged.  Oil tanked.  Hope briefly entered the room.  Then he deleted the tweet.  Markets reversed.  Oil pumped back up. Then Karoline Leavitt confirmed: no ship has gone through the Strait."

Amateur hour, from top the bottom. 

The premises that caused them to start this military conflict were clearly not true, which just about any informed observers outside of DC would have known.  They exist in an echo chamber of delusions and lies.  

Their strategy and preparations are entirely ineffective and inadequate, ripe with unintended consequences.  This military action, marked by an astonishing violation of international and US law, may be viewed by history on a par with the ill-conceived and disastrous Operation Barbarossa.

This is likely to exert highly negative pressures on the global economy, of course including the US.  They may try to downplay and diminish them in the media and by their statements.  But the immense risk and lack of effective planning and control in this operation is apparent to anyone who is willing to accept the truth from whatever source.

And the fog of war is spreading out from Foggy Bottom. 

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Of Black Swans and Cooked Goose

 

“Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that any one who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter.  The Statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. 

Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seat at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war.  Always remember, however sure you are that you can easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance. ”

Winston Churchill, My Early Life 1930, p. 229

"The Commonwealth of Rome grew great by the misery of the rest of mankind.  The Romans, like others as soon as they grew rich, grew corrupt; and in their corruption sold the lives and freedoms of themselves, and of one another.”

Samuel Johnson, Review of Memoirs of the Court of Augustus, 1756

"Trust in God, but everyone else shows the data.  Check the facts and the underlying assumptions.  The reason should be obvious, but people deal with the complexities of life by using assumptions, which are a kind of shorthand way of breaking reality down into manageable chunks.  Everyone does it. 

But it is useful, and prudent, to check those assumptions you make, and that other people are making, to see if they are still valid, especially if they involve things that are important (cf. Long Term Capital Management).  Is there a bus coming down the road you are crossing?  Are you financially solvent?  Have you allowed for lower probability but potentially corrosive and existential risks? (Taleb's famous Black Swan).  Those sorts of things."

Jesse, Investment Performance for 2007,  December 21, 2007

"All governments [and organizations] suffer a recurring problem: power attracts pathological personalities.  It is not that power corrupts, but that it is magnetic to the corruptible."

Frank Herbert, Chapterhouse Dune, March 1985

"Psychopaths don’t feel they have psychological or emotional problems, and they see no reason to change their behavior to conform with societal standards they do not agree with.  Psychopaths see the rules and expectations of society as inconvenient and unreasonable impediments to their own behavioral expression.  They make their own rules, both as children and as adults. 

Many of the antisocial acts of psychopaths lead to criminal charges and convictions.  But not all psychopaths end up in jail.  Many of the things they do escape detection or prosecution, or are on 'the shady side of the law.'  For them, antisocial behavior may consist of phony stock [and crypto] promotions, questionable business practices, spouse or child abuse, and so forth.  Many others do things that, though not necessarily illegal, are nevertheless unethical, immoral, or harmful to others: philandering or cheating on a spouse to name a few."

Robert Hare, How to Spot Predators Before They Attack, December 5, 2017

"They know of no solutions to the paradoxes of the Middle East and Europe, the Far East and Africa except the landing of Marines. Being baffled, and also being very tired of being baffled, they have come to believe that there is no way out—except war—which would remove all the bewildering paradoxes of their tedious and now misguided attempts to construct peace. In place of these paradoxes they prefer the bright, clear problems of war—as they used to be. For they still believe that 'winning' means something, although they never tell us what.

Some men want war for sordid, others for idealistic, reasons; some for personal gain, others for impersonal principle. But most of those who consciously want war and accept it, and so help to create its 'inevitability,' want it in order to shift the locus [epicenter] of their problems."

C. Wright Mills, The Causes of World War III, 1958 pp. 86-89


Stocks slumped and then rallied hard into the close.

This was the usual Monday short squeeze where they jam up the specs who took short positions in the market as a safeguard over the weekend.

Gold and silver were slammed, but they both bounced, with silver showing an impressive rise for a decent gain.

I wonder if Bessent and his oligarch buddies are running low on ammo like Hegseth is.

VIX came in hot with slumping stocks this morning, and then collapsed back down into the afternoon.

The Dollar popped at the open of NY trading, and then fell sharply into the close.

The market here is largely smoke and mirrors.  Be careful.

Bitcoin managed to hold a decent bounce.  Good for them.  Enjoy it while it lasts.

A little economic data on jobs from ADP will be coming out tomorrow morning. 

Wednesday is the more important release when we get some inflation data.  Alas, it's already a bit dated because it will not take into account the inflationary effects of the Iran war.

I keep playing scenarios on the outcome of this global adventurism, and they always seem to come out from very bad to disastrous.

As I have said, the US decision to participate in Netanyahu's war will be viewed in retrospect with the Germany invasion of Russia in Operation Barbarossa.

The way things are going if we are able to have unimpeded midterm elections, not by any means a sure thing, then the GOP will probably lose their Congressional majority and the Democrats will be able to make some headway in reining in this imperial presidency.

Even better, if the Democrats can displace Schumer and Jefferies from their leadership we might see some more meaningful reform.  But that does not seem likely at the moment. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Synthetic Assets: Bupkis from the Land of Zilch

 

"Ordinarily, the financial risk in a market, and hence the risk to the economy at large, is limited because the assets traded are finite.  There are only so many houses, mortgages, shares of stock, bushels of corn, [bars of silver], or barrels of oil in which to invest.  But a synthetic instrument has no real assets.  It is simply a bet on the performance of the assets it references.

That means the number of synthetic instruments is limitless, and so is the risk they present to the economy.  Increasingly, synthetics became bets made by people who had no interest in the referenced assets.  Synthetics became the chips in a giant casino, one that created no economic growth even when it thrived, and then helped throttle the economy when the casino collapsed."

Carl Levin, US Congress, Wall Street and the Financial Crisis, April 27, 2010

"The tyrant dies and his rule is over; the martyr dies and his rule begins.”

Søren Kierkegaard, The Journals of Søren Kierkegaard, 1938

"They have ignored the abuses of my people. 'Peace, peace!' they say, where there is no peace. They have acted shamefully, committing many atrocities. And they are not ashamed, they do not even know how to blush. Therefore they will be among the fallen; in the time of judgement they shall fall."

Jeremiah 6:14-15

"Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States.  I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country.  When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank.  You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families.  That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin!  Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin!

You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out."

Andrew Jackson, meeting with Bankers in Philadelphia, February 1834


Gold and silver are assets without counterparty risk if held directly because the bullion itself is the asset. 

Obviously there is pricing involved, because the value of all goods is determined in markets these days.

Synthetic assets, on the other hand, are literally propositions that are weighed upon in varying degrees by counter-party risk. 

The less tied to a tangible asset through a valid legal instrument, the greater the risk.

Certain new 'digital assets' are as the distillation of a synthetic instrument, with virtually no inherent value. 

They are the hallmark of this new era.  Such are the times.

The Non-Farm Payroll report was a disastrous miss, which *could* be a play to provoke the Fed to cut interest rates.

But this accumulation of sovereign debt increases the counterparty risk of holding Treasuries and Dollars, which are debt instruments of zero duration, economic theories to the contrary notwithstanding.  Physical force is a very artificial asset upon which to rely.

Gold and silver rallied.

Uncle Buck slipped off the 99 handle.

Bitcoin has gone to backtest its recent breakout from its trading range.  It does not appear to be a valid 'flight to safety asset' and is heavily correlated to speculation in the tech stock bubble. 

But let's keep an open mind.

The 'war' with Iran has been planned with a surprisingly short attention span.  And its progress shows.

I am deeply concerned about a cycle of escalation by Netanyahu and Trump to what has been so far been 'unthinkable' to US policy-makers.   And these are just the guys who would do it. 

Need little, want less, love more.  For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

And have a pleasant weekend.