ISM Reports as Indicators of Recession

This chart shows the ISM Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing Diffusion Indices for Business activity from July 1997 to January 2008. A number below 50 indications contraction, and a number above 50 indicates expansion.

Also on this chart is a gray bar indicating official NBER recessions, and the annual rate of change in Real GDP compounded. Obviously a number below zero (0) is negative growth.

The conclusion is that a dip of both the Non-Mfg and Mfg numbers below 50 are very strong indications that the economy is in recession. In the current situation the Non-Mfg index is screaming recession as of the number given today, which is why the market sold off. However, the Manufacturing number is strangely resilient, especially considering the weak state of manufacturing in the US.

The future revisions of the Manufacturing Index will be watched closely, including any subsequent report such as the upcoming number in February. If the Manufacturing number swings back down below 50 look for most economists to start upping their calls that the economy is in recession.

We believe that we are in recession already with little doubt based on the Jobs and other indicators we have shown in earlier postings. NBER usually makes the official call by the time the recession is over. We think this one might last a little longer that the 2001 recession.

What Happened in the Last Recession and Bear Market?

Like most Americans here in the United States of Amnesia you may have already forgotten, but the last bear market and official recession we had was in the Y2K and stock bubble collapse of 2000-2003. Here is a chart showing a rough but fairly good comparison of the SP 500 action from the market tops, then and now. By popular request, we were asked to show the performance of gold and silver during the entire timeframe spanning the bear market and recession. We have mapped this out, on a percentage basis, in this second chart.
As you can see, gold was a stellar performer as the dollar was devalued to combat the downturn, even though we saw a brief whiff of deflation in M1 during this period, although most probably do not remember the big deflation scare. Silver did a 'sideways chop' throughout, reflecting its own market conditions and slack demand from industrial usages.

We have to note, and will put to you with emphasis, that just because this is how things happened the last time, that does not mean this is how they will happen this time around. Not at all. But its a very positive thing to bother to consider the data when people around you are spinning theories, and pointing to historic examples like Japan in the 1980's and 1990's, which we remember extremely well, being very preoccupied with in-country Japanese business ventures during the latter half of the Japan bust.

We have to admit we were extremely surprised by one thing. A good friend asked us to also take a look at the performance of the miners in this period as represented by the Gold Bugs Index (HUI). Our take on this was that the miners would have been clocked along with the SP500 during this period.

We stand corrected on that assumption, and remind ourselves again, to listen to what others may have to say, hear their arguments, but always, always look at the data.

Don't Worry, the Fed's Got Your Back.....

Oh yeah, you are the Fed's number one priority, for sure.

And after looking at the new Bush budget, you can be sure the Republicans will be looking out for your interests too, ---- as long as you are a major corporation, or an individual in the top 1% of the wealthy in the US.

Right after a flat consumption tax, the most regressive, unjust and insidious tax you can concoct is inflation, and this is exactly what is being created to bail out the banks and their shareholders, and the Wall Street elite.

"The history of the last century shows, as we shall see later, that the advice given to governments by bankers, like the advice they gave to industrialists, was consistently good for bankers, but was often disastrous for governments, businessmen, and the people generally." Carroll Quigley, Professor of History, Georgetown University

"Bush Budget Would Bring Record Deficits
By ANDREW TAYLOR – Feb 4, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) — The record $3.1 trillion budget proposed by President Bush on Monday would produce eyepopping federal deficits, despite his attempts to impose politically wrenching curbs on Medicare and eliminate scores of popular domestic programs.

The Pentagon would receive a $36 billion, 8 percent boost for the 2009 budget year beginning Oct. 1, even as programs aimed at the poor would be cut back or eliminated. Half of domestic Cabinet departments would see their budgets cut outright..."

Fed's main task: Save the banks, The Christian Science Monitor, Feb. 1, 2008

"In moving with unusual speed to cut interest rates, officials at the Federal Reserve are aiming to prevent a nationwide recession, but they're also doing something more targeted: throwing a lifeline directly to the beleaguered banking industry.

The Fed says that it isn't trying to bail out anyone. Rather, its move is grounded partly in concern that banking troubles could deepen, choking off credit to the whole economy at a precarious time.

The pace of consumer spending stalled in December, according to government data released Thursday. America's businesses are also on edge, with slow job creation causing a rise in unemployment. In response, the central bank is moving to stimulate growth. But it is also trying to forestall a possible bank meltdown that would worsen the situation.

The interest-rate cuts could give financial firms some breathing room to absorb losses tied to home loans.

"This is more about Wall Street than Main Street," says Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, a business-sponsored research group in New York. "We've got the monetary strategy we've got because financial markets are nervous..."

Are We In A Recession?

The GDP and CPI graphs using historic measures courtesy of Mr. John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics. Historic means before the Clintons and Bushes perverted them beyond recognition and common sense.

That's a trick question, right? Well, maybe a rhetorical one at best.

More precisely, a nasty little case of stagflation by historic measures.

Jobs!? We don't need no stinking Jobs!!