09 August 2008

Your Weekend Read on a New School of Economic Thought


Since its August and she-who-must-be-accommodated is on holiday leaving us to fend for ourselves, we don't mind accomplishing the task of illuminating the flaws in the financial system for this weekend not by our own hand but by recommending an excellent essay from The London Banker.

As we have said many times before, (before you started nodding off, or thinking about the Olympics, or most likely just kicks, bangs, and thrills of the bellybutton and below), a new school of economic thought is scheduled to arise from the ashes of the economic conflagration in which are we are presently engaged, three hundred point up days in stock markets to cheer the mob notwithstanding.

The London Banker sets the scope for this new school of economic thought in his essay.

An appetizer and then the link to the repast. Enjoy.

It should be obvious that the financial sector, as intermediaries between savers and productive ventures requiring capital, should never rise to the point where it alone represents over thirty percent of economic activity. Nonetheless, markets all over the world carelessly followed the path of under-production, dis-savings and over-consumption as the path to prosperity rather than a betrayal of capital into hopelessly unproductive works...

Regulatory policies promoting misallocation of capital included elimination of restrictions on bank dealing and brokerage of securities and derivatives, self-determined models-based capital adequacy calculation, ratings-based weightings of capital assets, accounting reforms that permitted off-balance sheet financings and acceptance of ill-transparent corporate structures....

If the core problem leading to the current seizure of the credit markets is the misallocation of credit into unproductive works during the boom years, then no amount of new credit will solve the problem unless the distortions promoting misallocation are redressed through fiscal and regulatory policy changes. Bailouts and recapitalisation of failed policies of the past are only digging a deeper hole, betraying more capital of younger generations into the unproductive works financed by the current generation.

Snake Oil and Deflation by The London Banker


08 August 2008

Crazy Eights - Charts in the Babson Style for Week Ending 8.8.08








US Dollar Weekly Charts with Commitments of Traders as of 5 August 2008




Weekly US Dollar with Moving Averages


UBS Will Buy Back Auction Rate Securities for $19.4 Billion


UBS Will Buy Back Bonds for 19.4 Billion
By Beth Healy
August 8, 2008
Boston Globe

State and federal regulators have reached a $19.4 billion agreement with UBS Financial Services Inc. to settle charges that the firm misled investors into buying bonds that were far riskier than advertised, according to people briefed on the talks.

The deal would require the Swiss bank to buy back the investments, called auction-rate securities, which were widely sold on Wall Street as safe and cash-like until the $330 billion market collapsed in February. The firm also agreed to pay $150 million in fines, split between Massachusetts and New York.

The settlement is scheduled to be disclosed this morning by state regulators and the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The UBS deal is the largest so far in the nationwide investigation of these investments, which have trapped thousands of investors and caused havoc among student lenders and nonprofits. The firm was facing fraud charges brought by Massachusetts Secretary of State William F. Galvin, who led the UBS investigation, and by New York Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo. Galvin alleged that top UBS executives knew the auction-rate market was failing but did not inform many customers.

The firm has also paid about $40 million to settle findings by Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley that it illegally sold auction-rate bonds to 21 towns and cities and the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority.

UBS declined to discuss the settlement talks but said in a statement, "We are consistently working with regulators toward a comprehensive solution for all auction-rate investors."