23 August 2008

The Fed's Fatal Attraction with Wall Street Is a Source of Policy Error


Link to Buiter's Complete Paper Presented at Jackson Hole


Fed Attention to Wall Street `Dangerous,' Buiter Says
By John Fraher and Scott Lanman
Bloomberg News

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve pays a ``dangerous'' amount of attention to the concerns of Wall Street, constraining its ability to influence the economy, former Bank of England policy maker Willem Buiter said.

``The Fed listens to Wall Street and believes what it hears,'' Buiter said today in a paper presented to the U.S. central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. ``This distortion into a partial and often highly distorted perception of reality is unhealthy and dangerous.''

The central bank has drawn criticism from some officials in the U.S. and Europe by trying to end the yearlong credit crisis through an expansion of lending. The steepest interest-rate cuts in two decades risk stoking inflation, while the Fed has been too generous in aiding banks, Buiter said.

In addition to rescuing Bear Stearns Cos. from bankruptcy, the Fed created a program to swap Treasuries for mortgage bonds, opened up lending to Wall Street firms and reduced the premium for direct loans to commercial banks.

Buiter, a founding member of the Bank of England's independent rate-setting board in 1997, said the Fed's behavior over the past year represents an example of ``regulatory capture.'' In such a relationship, policy makers take on ``as if by osmosis, the objectives, interests and perception of reality of the vested interest they are meant to regulate and supervise in the public interest,'' he said.

Heated Debate

Buiter's paper sparked the most heated debate of any item on the two-day conference agenda. Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer opened the question-and-answer session by holding up a fire extinguisher and saying, ``I asked the organizers for some technical assistance in dealing with this discussion.''

Former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder said that the central bank's performance, while not flawless, has been ``pretty good under the circumstances.''

Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin, one the strongest advocates of the ``risk management'' approach to financial crises, said after Buiter's presentation ``there are a lot of unguided missiles that have been shot off.''

Under Bernanke and his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, the Fed has cut rates in response to falling stock prices more than is justified to safeguard economic growth, Buiter said. On Jan. 22, as global stock markets tumbled, the Fed slashed its overnight lending rate by 75 basis points.

Safeguard Economy

Bernanke has argued that policy makers' actions were necessary to safeguard the economy from the impact of the credit crisis. Greenspan engineered rate cuts in 2001 through 2003 at a time when joblessness climbed in the aftermath of the recession seven years ago. The Fed by law is mandated to achieve stable prices and maximize employment.

Buiter also criticized the Fed and other central banks around the world for not providing more information about the valuation of collateral they accept from banks.

Such information would allay concerns financial institutions will use public funds to subsidize financial institutions, he said. This is ``most acute'' in the case of some of the Fed's emergency lending programs created in the past year.

Two economists echoed Buiter's concern in another paper presented today, saying the Fed's program allowing institutions to swap Treasuries for mortgage bonds and other debt enables firms to ``window dress'' their balance sheets.

`Deception Easier'

``Financial institutions can hold low-quality securities for the period where no reporting is required,'' wrote Franklin Allen of the University of Pennsylvania and the University of Frankfurt's Elena Carletti. ``Temporarily increasing the supply of Treasuries makes this kind of deception easier. It helps remove market and regulator discipline.''

The financial crisis is also forcing the European Central Bank to rethink aspects of its money market operations, which provide a flexibility that has been favorably compared with programs at the Fed and the Bank of England.

The ECB plans to tighten collateral rules to head off the risk of abuse by some financial institutions, ECB council member Yves Mersch said in an interview today.

Buiter won some praise for openly confronting the Fed's record at its summer retreat in the Teton Mountains.

``Willem's papers don't pull punches, they have attitude,'' Blinder said. ``You have to give credit to a guy with the nerve to come here with black bears on the outside and the FOMC on the inside and be this critical of the Federal Reserve.''


22 August 2008

China Expects Adequate Compensation for the Failure of Freddie and Fannie .... Or Else


A very crystal clear 'suggestion' indeed. Back your markers or its game over.


Freddie, Fannie Failure Could Be World `Catastrophe,' Yu Says
By Kevin Hamlin

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- A failure of U.S. mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be a catastrophe for the global financial system, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China's central bank.

``If the U.S. government allows Fannie and Freddie to fail and international investors are not compensated adequately, the consequences will be catastrophic,'' Yu said in e-mailed answers to questions yesterday. ``If it is not the end of the world, it is the end of the current international financial system.''

Freddie and Fannie shares touched 20-year lows yesterday on speculation that a government bailout will leave the stocks worthless. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson won approval from the U.S. Congress last month to pump unlimited amounts of capital into the companies in an emergency.

China's $376 billion of long-term U.S. agency debt is mostly in Fannie and Freddie assets, according to James McCormack, head of Asian sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings Ltd. in Hong Kong. The Chinese government probably holds the bulk of that amount, according to McCormack.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China yesterday reported a $2.7 billion holding. Bank of China Ltd. may have $20 billion, according to CLSA Ltd., the Hong Kong-based investment banking arm of France's Credit Agricole SA. CLSA puts the exposure of the six biggest Chinese banks at $30 billion.

`Beyond Imagination'

``The seriousness of such failures could be beyond the stretch of people's imagination,'' said Yu, a professor at the Institute of World Economics & Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. He didn't explain why he held that view.

China's government hasn't commented on Fannie and Freddie.

Yu is ``influential'' among government officials and investors and has discussed economic issues with Premier Wen Jiabao this year, said Shen Minggao, a former Citigroup Inc. economist in Beijing, now an economist at business magazine Caijing.

Investor confidence in Fannie and Freddie has dwindled on speculation that government intervention is inevitable. Washington-based Fannie has fallen 88 percent this year, while Freddie of McLean, Virginia, has slumped 91 percent.

Paulson got the power to make purchases of the two companies' debt or equity in legislation enacted July 30 that was aimed at shoring up confidence in the businesses. He has said the Treasury doesn't expect to use that authority.

The two companies combined account for more than half of the $12 trillion U.S. mortgage market.

US Dollar Weekly Charts With COT as of 19 August 2008


Weekly Dollar Chart with Commitments of Traders



Weekly US Dollar Chart with Moving Averages


Charts in the Babson Style for the Week Ending 22 August 2008


Stocks caught a bid at week's end as hopes of a purchase of Lehman Brothers by the Korean Development Bank had the financials leading a rally higher. No price or terms are specified.

Korean DB is said to be attracted to Lehman's books. "They are soft and smelly like a well aged kimchee," said one anonymous connoisseur of investment fare.