15 September 2008

PIMCO, Vanguard and Japanese Banks Face Billions in Losses on Lehman Bonds


Many firms are holding hurried meetings today over these losses, to assess the impacts with respoect to money market funds, mutual funds, and pension plans. Legg Mason, Fidelity, Axa SA, Franklin Advisers, Vanguard and Pimco are among the largest stakholders.

This is minor compared to what some other failures might look like such as Goldman, Morgan Stanley, AIG, or a major bank like Washington Mutual and Wachovia.

The thing about commercial banks is that there is a well established mechanism for sweeping them into the money bin as long as the dollar and Treasury bonds hold up. Not so for insurance companies and investment banks, which are messy.

Interesting as well that it was Lehman and Bear that took it in the necks, as they were the two big bond houses.

If it is true that they are allowing banks to use depositor's funds to recapitalize their investment activities, then we have come full circle back to 1929 and all that implies.


Pimco, Vanguard Are Biggest Lehman Bond Fund Losers
By John Glover
Bloomberg News

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Pimco Advisors LP, Vanguard Group Inc. and Franklin Advisers Inc. are among investment companies that may face losses of at least $86 billion stemming from the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the biggest bankruptcy in history.

Mutual fund companies' filings show they hold more than $143 billion of bonds, led by Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world's biggest bond fund, and Valley Forge, Pennsylvania-based Vanguard, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of June 30.

``The losses look set to be widespread, hurting the public through their mutual and pension funds,'' said Ciaran O'Hagan, a credit strategist at Societe Generale SA in Paris. ``It's clearly a disaster for public confidence.''

While bond investors will recover different amounts based on their ranking in Lehman's capital structure, models of credit-default swaps assume lenders will recoup 40 percent of their loans overall in a bankruptcy. Investors may receive less than that, based on prices for Lehman's senior bonds of as little as 35 cents on the dollar from price provider Trace.

Pimco holds Lehman bonds in at least 12 of its funds, including the $134 billion Total Return Fund. Bill Gross, manager of the fund and co-chief investment officer of Pimco, was buying Lehman bonds as recently as June, Bloomberg data show. ...

Vanguard holds Lehman bonds among the $450 billion of fixed income it manages, spokesman John Woerth said. An outside spokeswoman for Pimco in London, who asked not to be named, said the company had no immediate comment, Lisa Gallegos, a spokeswoman for Franklin in San Mateo, California, wasn't immediately available.

New York-based Lehman, which filed for protection from creditors today, owes its 10 largest unsecured creditors more than $157 billion, according to the Chapter 11 filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York. The largest single creditor is Aozora Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, with $463 million in a bank loan. Other top creditors include Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., owed $382 million, and a Citigroup Inc. unit based in Hong Kong, owed an estimated $275 million, according to the filing.
Lehman listed total debts of $613 billion and $639 billion of assets in the filing.

Axa SA, Europe's second-biggest insurer, and unnamed affiliates, own 7.25 percent of Lehman's equity, according to the filing. Clearbridge Advisers LLC, the asset manager that Baltimore-based Legg Mason Inc. acquired from Citigroup Inc. in 2005, held 6.33 percent, according to the filing. Boston-based FMR LLC, the parent of Fidelity, the world's largest mutual fund company, held 5.9 percent, the filing said.


Wall Street Journal
Several Japanese Banks Are Top Lenders to Lehman
By YUKA HAYASHI
September 15, 2008 11:29 a.m.

TOKYO -- Several Japanese banks -- flush with cash and relatively unscathed by the global credit crisis -- are among the top bank lenders to Lehman Brothers Holding Inc., which filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday with $613 billion in debt.

Aozora Bank, a mid-sized Tokyo bank, was No.1 on the list of largest bank lenders with a loan of $463 million, followed by Mizuho Corporate Bank, with a $289 million loan, according to court documents submitted with Lehman's Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. Mizuho Corporate Bank is the wholesale banking unit of Mizuho Financial Group, Japan's third-largest bank by market value. Other big Japanese lenders to Lehman included Shinsei Bank, another mid-sized Tokyo bank, and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Japan's largest bank.

For big Japanese banks like Mitsubishi UFJ and Mizuho, which have huge balance sheets, the loan losses related to Lehman may appear modest.

But smaller banks like Aozora and Shinsei may have a tougher time absorbing the losses. The two banks have been turned around by private-equity investors after collapsing during Japan's bad-loan crisis. But their performance has been weak in recent quarters. Faced with powerful competition from Japan's giant banks, they have forayed deeper into riskier business areas.

On Friday, Aozora said it expects to swing to a net loss of four billion yen in the fiscal first half ending Sept. 30, compared with a previous forecast of a 15.5 billion yen profit, as it changed the timing of write-downs related to its investment in GMAC LLC, the unprofitable finance arm of General Motors Corp. Aozora invested in this business alongside Cerberus Capital Management, its largest investor.

The long list of Japanese names on the list of bank lenders underlines how these banks are playing an increasingly important role as providers of capital in the global financial market battered by a credit crunch. Unlike many of their U.S. and European peers that have been forced to scale back lending because of big losses related to risky mortgage securities, Japan's top banks like Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group still enjoy healthy balance sheets and have been vying to expand their presence overseas recently. These banks have stayed shy of investing in risky securities, in part due to a lesson learned from their own bad-loan crisis during the 1990s and early 2000s.

The filing doesn't necessarily mean the loans extended by these banks would go sour. Lehman said it had $639 billion in assets, which will be liquidated and eventually distributed among creditors during the process of liquidation. Aside from billions of dollars in loans borrowed from banks, the Wall Street firm owes over $150 billion to bond holders, who tend to come behind bank lenders when collecting debts in bankruptcy cases.



The Carry Trade Currencies


From Chris Gaffney in The Daily Pfennig:

The best performers over the weekend were the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, both traditional funding currencies of the carry trade. As Chuck [Butler] has explained several times in the past, when market volatility increases, traders typically start to exit the carry trades which are only profitable during times of relative calm in the markets.

The reversal of the carry trades means investors sell the emerging markets and high yield currencies and use the funds to pay down loans which they had taken out in the low yielding 'funding' currencies of Japanese yen and Swiss francs. The Japanese yen strengthened as much as 3.4% vs. the US dollar overnight, and the Swiss franc had the biggest one day gain in six months.

We think that gold is also being used as a carry trade 'currency' as well, as the central banks lease their gold bullion cheaply to the commercial banks, similar to the low interest rates carried by the yen and Swiss franc.

The gold is sold off, probably to the ETFs and the metals markets, and is largely not returnable to the central banks in many cases. This is one of the reasons why the gold price is becoming so volatile; the 'printing' of gold by central bank leasing does not really create anything, it only distorts the market longer term.

Some day that volatility may become breath-taking.

Chris Gaffney continues:
I have to say I am surprised Treasury Secretary Paulson stayed away from helping another bunch of his Wall Street buddies. I read where Paulson said Wall Street has been aware of Lehman's troubles for a long time and had time to prepare for any crisis at the company. I know we closed out all of our currency trades with Lehman a couple of months ago, and hopefully most other prudent companies did the same.

I hope this weekend's events are an indication that some sanity has returned to the Treasury department, and a line has been drawn after the widest expansion of federal safety nets to the financial system since the Great Depression. Its about time we quit guaranteeing the losses at these huge financial firms.

More likely Lehman was a token gesture to free markets as we had suggested last week it might very well be. Paulson and Company appear to be willing to do whatever it takes to control the situation and the markets, to 'inspire confidence' in the system, to feed the bull market in insensible complacency.

In the short term this is a viable strategy, but at the cost of a disabling of the free market system, and significant unintended consequences down the road.

We wish them well, but don't think they have the right motivation and character to achieve a sustainable solution hat would involve systemic reform. They are creatures of the status quo.

Underperforming Banks and Thrifts Most Likely to Fail, ex-Bailouts


CyclePro has updated his list of banks and thrifts which he feels are most likely to fail. You can view his methodology here: CyclePro

The inclusion of Bank of America and Goldman Sachs among the big banks is surely a gutsy call. But remember this list is ex-bailouts and Federal support. Both banks seem to have reserved place settings at the public trough.

His analysis is always interesting, but alas like most good things infrequently available. We have it among the links on this site's sidebar.

His blog is worth watching, and scrolling down through prior posts to see some of the gems there. We have referenced his long term chart and analysis of the deflated DJIA before. Its a pretty grim picture.


Central Banks Soothe Nervous Markets


Kumbaya My Lord, Kumbaya

Someone's cratered Lord, Kumbaya

Need a Rate Cut Lord, Kumbaya

Oh Lord Kumbaya


ECB, Bank of England Join Fed in Soothing Markets After Lehman
By John Fraher

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank and the Bank of England joined the Federal Reserve in taking action to sooth financial markets spooked by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s bankruptcy filing.

The ECB said it awarded banks 30 billion euros ($43 billion) in a one-day money-market auction that was more than three times oversubscribed. The Bank of England loaned banks 5 billion pounds ($9 billion) for three days. Earlier, the Federal Reserve widened the collateral it accepts for loans to securities firms.

Stocks plunged and bonds surged after Lehman became the latest victim of a yearlong credit squeeze. Financial institutions worldwide have reported more than $500 billion in losses and writedowns and the credit-market turmoil has erased $11 trillion from global stocks in the past year.

``It remains to be seen whether today's operation will be sufficient to restore market confidence,'' said Jacques Cailloux, chief euro-area economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. ``The ECB will likely wait for the U.S. open to consider more aggressive action. Key will be how credit and equity markets develop in the coming days.''

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters in Frankfurt as he arrived for an award ceremony that he had nothing to add to today's statement. The ECB said it injected the funds at a marginal rate of 4.30 percent. The Swiss central bank offered liquidity through its overnight facility for the first time since Feb. 22.

The ECB and the Bank of England may nevertheless hold off cutting rates right away as they seek to curb inflation. The ECB has spent much of the past year arguing that it can use its money market operations to tackle the credit crisis and doesn't need to resort to rate cuts.

``Rate cuts are only likely to be forthcoming if financial markets melt down in the coming days or weeks,'' said David Mackie, chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. ``For the time being, European policy makers look like they will continue to hold the line on the separation of powers. At some point though, that line could be reached.''

The cost of borrowing on money markets may also jump. The so- called OIS spread, the gap between three month dollar funds and traders' bet on the Fed's daily effective federal funds will rate, widened to 105 basis points today, the most since Dec. 6. That compares with 87 basis points at the end of last week.