06 October 2008

Unbridled Monetization - We're All at the Discount Window Now


In 1972 Richard Nixon took the US off the gold standard. It appears that Bush, Paulson and Bernanke are going to take us off the full faith and credit standard.

Why not? After all, our money is only a piece of paper, like the Constitution.

Full faith and credit?

We have lost our faith in the markets and freedom, and our credibility is in a shambles.

Oh, does that seem too severe? Watch, and be amazed.


NY Times
October 7, 2008
Fed Considers Plan to Buy Companies’ Unsecured Debt
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS and MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM

WASHINGTON — As pressure built in the credit markets and stocks spiraled lower around the world on Monday, the Federal Reserve was considering a radical new plan to jump-start the engine of the financial system.

Under a proposal being discussed with the Treasury Department, the Fed could buy vast amounts of the unsecured short-term debt that companies rely on to finance their day-to-day activities, according to officials familiar with the discussions. If this were to happen, the central bank would come closer than ever to lending directly to businesses.

While the move would put more taxpayer dollars at risk, it underscores the growing sense of urgency felt by policy makers in a climate where lending has virtually dried up.

The plan was being formulated amid cascading losses in global stock markets, as the banking crisis spread across Europe and investors feared dire consequences for the world economy. The Dow Jones industrial average fell as much as 800 points before a late recovery, finishing down 369.88, below 10,000 points for the first time since 2004.

Even before bankers on Wall Street reached their desks, European stocks were plunging. The Russian stock market dropped 19.1 percent, the biggest decline since the fall of the Soviet Union. Major indexes in London and Frankfurt lost more than 7 percent; stocks in Paris fell by 9 percent. Stocks in Latin America and other emerging economies took their worst collective tumble in a decade.

Volatility reached the highest level in two decades, and oil prices fell below $90 for the first time since February.

The contagion showed no signs of stopping when Asian markets opened Tuesday morning as the Nikkei index of Japanese stocks fell 3 percent and the Hang Seng index of stocks in Hong Kong fell 5 percent.

“There is a growing recognition that not only has the credit crunch refused to be contained, it continues to spread,” said Ed Yardeni, an investment strategist. “It’s gone truly global.”

Investors are worried about what the evaporation of credit will do to an already-weakened global economy.

In the United States, consumers appear to be significantly curbing spending; last month, employers cut more jobs than any month in five years. The $6 decline in oil prices, which settled at $87.81 a barrel, stemmed in part from fears that demand will slacken in the face of a deteriorating economy.

The Fed plan is intended to renew the flow of credit on which the economy depends. Under its plan, the central bank would buy unsecured commercial paper, essentially short-term i.o.u.’s issued by banks, businesses and municipalities.

The market for that kind of debt has all but shut down in the last week, with many major corporations unable to borrow for longer than a day at a time, as banks become more fearful of giving out cash. The volume of such debt totaled about $1.6 trillion as of Oct. 1, down 11 percent from three weeks earlier.

These credit fears persisted over the weekend despite the $700 billion bailout package that Congress approved last week.


The cost of borrowing from banks and corporations remained high on Monday, increased in part by a series of high-profile bank bailouts in Europe, where governments scrambled to save several major lenders from collapse.

The United States government appears to be pressing ahead with other radical efforts to shore up the financial system, even wading into corners of the markets where it has rarely interfered.

Buying commercial paper could open the Fed to difficult conflicts of interest, because it would be juggling the goals of protecting its investment portfolio with its traditional goals of promoting stable prices and low unemployment.

“The Federal Reserve really would become the buyer of last resort, trying to jump-start the commercial paper market by taking on credit risk,” said Vincent Reinhart, a former top Fed official who worked under Alan Greenspan, a former Fed chairman, and Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman now.

The Federal Reserve has already stretched its resources to the limit by providing hundreds of billions of dollars in short-term loans to banks, Wall Street firms and money market funds.

On Monday, the Fed announced that it would once again redouble one of its key emergency lending programs, increasing the size of its Term Auction Facility to $600 billion, from $300 billion. On top of that, the central bank plans to provide an additional $300 billion to banks to meet their end-of-the-year cash needs.

To pay for its burgeoning responsibilities, the Fed has no choice but to keep printing more money. To prevent that flood of new money from reducing the central bank’s overnight interest rate to zero, the Fed also announced on Monday that it would start paying interest on the excess reserves that banks keep on deposit at the Fed.

Paying interest on reserves allows the central bank to set a floor on interest rates and retain at least some control over monetary policy.

In its announcement on Monday, the Fed said it would pay an interest rate of 1.25 percent —three-quarters of a point below its target of 2 percent for the overnight Federal funds rate.

But the possibility of propping up the vast market for commercial paper could represent an undertaking even broader than the Treasury Department’s plan to buy as much as $700 billion in mortgage-backed securities.

In statements on Monday morning, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury said they were “consulting with market participants on ways to provide additional support for term unsecured funding markets.”

By referring to “unsecured funding markets,” policy makers signaled that they wanted to intervene directly in the credit markets. Officials said on Monday evening that they wanted to finish a plan as quickly as possible, perhaps as early as Tuesday.

But the effort is fraught with legal complexities. Though the Federal Reserve has sweeping power to create money and lend it out, experts said it was normally prohibited from buying assets that could lose money.

One way around that legal limitation would be to provide money to a separate legal entity that would do the buying and investing on the Fed’s behalf. That would be similar to Maiden Lane Funding L.L.C., a special-purpose entity that officials created last spring to hold $29 billion in hard-to-sell securities from Bear Stearns.


But so far, the myriad efforts by government regulators to shore up confidence have seemed to yield little relief among investors, some of whom believed the actions have taken on a haphazard air.

“People are slowly but surely coming to the realization that playing ‘Whack-a-Mole’ with each of these issues as they arise, on an ad hoc basis, doesn’t get the job done,” said Max Bublitz, chief strategist at SCM Advisors, an investment firm in San Francisco...

The sharp slide on Monday came despite assurances from President Bush that it would “take a while to restore confidence to the financial system.”

“We don’t want to rush into this situation and have the program not be effective.”

Will the Fed Cut Rates by 75 Basis Points? They May Already Have.


Bloomberg
Fed Sets Floor Below Rate Target, Engineering `Stealth' Cut
By Scott Lanman

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may have cut borrowing costs today without actually saying so.

The central bank used authority granted under last week's financial-rescue legislation to effectively set a floor under its main interest rate that's lower than the 2 percent target set by policy makers last month. The Fed may now pay interest on bank reserves while it floods financial markets with liquidity, pushing down the overnight lending rate by about 0.75 percentage point to 1.25 percent.

``Absolutely, it's a stealth easing,'' said John Ryding, founder and chief economist of RDQ Economics LLC in New York and a former Fed researcher.

The announcement, and a Fed decision to double the auction of cash to banks to as much as $900 billion, failed to avert a 3.9 percent decline today in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. The index has tumbled 28 percent this year even as the central bank has expanded credit more than at any time in seven decades, including a 3.25 percentage-point cut in the main rate during the past 13 months.

``The problem is it's an easing that's trying to offset a massive tightening in the market. Net-net, are we easier in policy? In some sense the answer is no,'' Ryding said.

By paying interest on reserves, the Fed can pump more cash into the financial system without worrying the overnight lending rate will drop to zero at the end of each day as banks withdraw excess reserves. The move doesn't preclude a further reduction in the target rate by the Federal Open Market Committee.

Biggest Surprise

The 0.75-point spread, announced today, was the biggest surprise in the Fed's moves to implement its authority under the financial-rescue legislation, economists said. The Fed set the new rate Oct. 3, the same day the House approved the bill and President George W. Bush signed it into law.

The FOMC, composed of the Washington-based governors and 12 Fed regional-bank presidents, meets about every six weeks to set a target for the overnight lending rate, which the New York Fed tries to achieve by buying and selling Treasury securities from bond dealers.

The Fed requires banks to keep a level of reserves at the central bank. On those funds, the Fed will pay a higher rate equal to the average target rate over a one or two-week period less 0.10 percentage point. For excess reserves, the rate is the lowest FOMC target over a period less 0.75 percentage point.

The Fed said it would raise or lower the spread so the New York Fed trading desk can keep the federal funds rate near policy makers' target ``based on experience and in response to evolving market conditions.''

The central bank didn't set a meeting schedule for discussing the reserve-interest rate.

Channeling Cash

The federal funds rate will probably trade below the FOMC's target as long as the Fed is channeling cash into the banking system, thereby prompting financial institutions to park their funds with the central bank each day. The rate may trade closer to the policy target when the credit crisis eases and the Fed begins to withdraw its emergency lending.

Still, a ``soft federal funds rate does not provide a perfect substitute for a cut in the target,'' former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer and former Fed researcher Brian Sack, now with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington, said in a research note to clients.

The Fed said today ``the rate on excess balances should be set sufficiently low to provide an incentive for eligible institutions to trade funds in excess of required reserve balances and clearing balances in the federal funds market.'' The rate should also discourage banks from trading funds ``far below'' the federal funds rate.

The interest payments begin Oct. 9.

Start Lending

A higher rate on payments may give banks too much of an incentive to keep funds at the central bank, said Peter Hooper, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York and a former Fed official. ``The whole objective here is to get banks to start lending again, and the more you pay them to hold on to their reserves, the less likely they'll be willing to lend.''

Even if the funds rate trades below the 2 percent target, it doesn't mean the FOMC is deploying a new policy tool by paying interest on reserves, said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. ``I doubt the FOMC will want to give up their Fed funds rate target as the key indicator of monetary policy.''

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose





Charts for Bloody Monday 6 October 2008