A Sad Day for the Swiss Franc

"What the Swiss government and central bank have done to their economy and finances is a disgrace. We hold no Swiss francs any longer. The Swiss people have been treated badly." 6 November 2008 Le Café Américain

We warned some time ago that the Swiss franc, long a beacon of monetary stability through the world, has been horribly compromised by a central bank with policies little different from those of the Fed, and other central banks using competitive devaluation to promote industrial policy.

If you are a Swiss exporter or a Bank you might be content.

If you are Swiss and you wish to preserve your wealth, buy gold.

"…the national bank will continue to act decisively to fight the impact of the economic contraction… a central bank can always increase the absolute amount of its own currency in circulation... the national bank could sell Swiss francs against other currencies without limits. In an extreme case, it could commit itself to buying foreign currencies at a fixed rate."
Philipp Hildebrand, Vice Chairman, Swiss National Bank

Hildebrand Says SNB Can Intervene in Franc Market
By Joshua Gallu and Simone Meier

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Swiss National Bank Vice-President Philipp Hildebrand said policy makers are prepared to intervene in currency markets at fixed exchange rates if necessary to prevent a “renewed appreciation” of the franc...

The franc has risen around 6 percent against the euro since October as the global financial crisis forced the Swiss central bank to cut its benchmark rate by 225 basis points, taking it to 0.5 percent. That’s smothering inflation and hurting exports, which make up more than half of Swiss gross domestic product. (And the other half is dominated by banks which are largely insolvent through mismanagement and various forms of fraud - Jesse)

“With short-term rates of practically zero, the SNB can’t prevent a further appreciation in the Swiss franc through a rate cut,” Hildebrand said in a speech in St. Gallen, Switzerland late yesterday. “The SNB is able to sell unlimited Swiss francs versus another currency. In an extreme case, it can commit itself at the same time to buying unlimited currencies at a fixed- exchange rate.”

The franc dropped after the remarks and extended its decline today. As of 7:51 a.m. in Zurich, it was at 1.5093 per euro from 1.5022 yesterday. It reached a record high of 1.4315 versus the euro on Oct. 27. Against the dollar, the franc was at 1.1562, having fallen late yesterday to 1.1616, the weakest since Dec. 15.

“The central bank can and will continue to provide liquidity, as much and for as long as needed,” Hildebrand said. “The SNB will continue to act in a decisive way in order to counter the effects of the economic contraction.”

Merrill Lynch: Infamia!

Apologies for the lapse into Italian, but it is a remnant of my childhood. My father had a remarkable talent for expressing strong emotion in this language as in no other way.

Until serious reforms are made in the banking system, and the accounts are squared with those who brought us to this misfortune, there can be no recovery, and no sustained return to individual liberty.

So, what would we like to do about this latest outrage?


Merrill Execs Pay Selves Bonuses Ahead of Schedule (and
Before BofA Closing)
Naked Capitalism

Playing fast and loose seems to be the theme of the evening... now we have the eleventh hour stealing of the silver by Merrill's top executives as one of the firm's final acts.

Let us remember the fact set: Merrill managed to get Bank of America to agree to buy it in September, elbowing aside Lehman. The deal is subject to shareholder approval, however. BofA, realizing it has acquired a garbage barge, threatens to scuttle the deal unless Uncle Sam lends a helping hand. Negotiations proceed behind closed doors (and neither Merrill nor BofA shareholders are told prior to the shareholder vote that BofA has agreed to do the deal subject to some form of government support).

Now we learn that after it was evident that the US taxpayer was going to subsidize the Merrill acquisition, the Merrill compensation committee accelerated bonus payments by a month to make sure they were paid out before the BofA deal closed.

Efforts are being made to minimize the amount involved (it is claimed to be only $3-$4 billion, but the fact is amounts were reserved in prior quarters that are excessive in light of full year performance. So the fact that some of the amounts were allowed for in previous quarters is misleading).

Were Merrill bankrupt, the bonus payments could be deemed fraudulent conveyance and clawed back. But we don't do either financial firm bankruptcies or clawbacks in this country...

Is Gold and the Balance of Power Shifting from the West to the East?

Here is an interesting set of charts, and a unique conclusion to match, from Moneyweek.

As we recall, the folks at GATA have been showing this sort of market analysis for some time now, to a cooler reception than a Madoff whistleblower at the Chris Cox retirement party.

We'd be open to hearing of other serious interpretations of this phenomenon. But be forewarned; to say it is just nonsense is, well, nonsense. It is a statistically valid hypothesis, albeit an unexplained and a bit odd, at least for the moment.

Can a money machine really exist in free and efficient markets? Economic theory says it cannot, that it must be due to some flaw or inefficiency, or an artificial scheme such as the regular returns from the Madoff Fund.

We might agree with the surmise that it involves the steady selling of leased gold from the West into the gold markets, but that could only be confirmed by an audit, and an admission from some large central bank that they have been obligating increasingly large amounts of their inventory into the public markets in a previously undisclosed manner.

The transaction costs are a problem if you are standing at the retail counter, we fear, so don't get any ideas about playing this trade. Its a sinecure for the big boys only, who can take advantage of market inefficiencies by trading in large, ever increasing volumes, like the whiz kids at LTCM did until they blew their trade book up.

Oddly enough, the data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency report on Derivates shows that only two banks, JPM and HSBC, are holding almost $124,000,000,000 in gold derivatives between them, approximately 98% of all gold derivatives in the world.

At $850 per ounce, that represents about 145,882,353 ounces of gold.

As the tides of monetary bubbles recede, curiosities are turning up on the beach every day.

MoneyWeek
Gold is shifting from West to East – along with the balance of power
By Dominic Frisby
Jan 21, 2009

Twice a day – at 10:30AM and 3PM - the price of gold is set on the London market by the five members of the London Gold Pool (HSBC, SocGen, Deutsche Bank, Scotia-Mocata and Barclays). This is known as the London fix and it's used as the benchmark to price gold, gold products and derivatives in markets around the world.

I've been looking at some charts and an astonishing pattern has become apparent. It's a pattern which, if you'd traded it methodically, would have earned you 1% a week over a period of 24 years. That compounds to a staggering 24,720,000%!

What is this spectacular strategy? Read on…

The astonishing pattern in London gold fixing

The strategy is really quite simple. You buy gold at the London PM fix (3PM), as the American markets have just opened for trading, and you sell your gold the following morning at the London AM fix (10:30AM), as the Asian markets are closing.

My thanks, as always, to Tom Fischer of Herriot Watt University for the charts below. The first demonstrates the weekly 1% gain that would have been yours since 1985 (the green line).



...What is more astonishing is how this pattern has accelerated since 2007. Sell gold in the morning, buy it back in the afternoon, and a cool 1.78% weekly profit will be yours:


Why would anyone want to manipulate the gold price?

What other free market shows such a consistent behaviour over time? Unless, of course, it's not a free market and the invisible hand of Big Brother is getting involved. Many of you will have read about manipulation of the gold price, and heard that there is a deliberate conspiracy to suppress the price of gold....

Rest of the story at MoneyWeek

SP Futures Hourly Chart at 3:30

The Nasdaq is in a similar pattern.

Note the long end of the Treasuries was down again as money came out looking for βeta. Quite often it comes out looking for risk and is consumed on these technical bounces. The dollar eased as well, and the yen is moving. We like our thought that the Pound is heading for parity with the euro, and may be with the dollar before Buck takes a dive.

We were net long for the day, but are flattening out and taking some profits, including a big Long Bond short, into the close, leaving a slight edge on to the short side of financials and long tech.

Dollar down gold up but nothing of substance. Watch to see if any of these moves extend. We're believers in the January full month indicator so obviously the action this week is important.

We may break out, so be aware of the resistance. We could see a short squeeze if we do.

AAPL and EBAY after the close. They may give us a better read on tech, now that IBM has become an accounting black box.

The word for the day is: FROSTY. Let the market show us the way short term.