23 January 2009

SP Futures Hourly Chart at 3:30 PM


All scenarios are still on the table.

Trendline has moderated a bit, making a more symmetrical triangle pattern that has not yet resolved either way. Guilty until proven innocent.

Keep one eye on the VIX. There is a choppy tension on the tape.

A good indicator of stock market price dislocations is often referred to by traders as "tension on the tape." What they are actually referring to is a type of volatility that moves the market in rapid intraday extremes or very tight trading ranges. As we have seen recently, the market can open up or down 50-100 points or more and then seemingly reverse instantly to the same extent.
Big data out next week with an FOMC meeting (jawbone opportunity), Chicago PMI, and Q4 Advance GDP on Friday. The figures are always revised and economists expect -5.2% so be wary of a 'better-than-expected' print.



Merrill Lynch Execs Paid Themselves $15 Billion on $21.5 Billion in Losses in 2008


No wonder John Thain was sacked. On the surface it appears that he and his management were 'hiding' or at best unaware of enormous losses that were only revealed after they were purchased by the Bank of America, and the recipient of enormous amounts of government funds.

And to make matters worse, they continued to pay themselves huge salaries and bonuses for the year despite those losses.

It will be interesting to see if there is any meaningful investigation of this. We doubt it very much. The Democratic leadership have shown themselves to be a lot of noise and little meaningful action so far, and almost all the Republicans are outrageous hypocrites. Such is the state of the deep capture of the government.

The problem with Wall Street is that there is reward without commensurate risk, pervasive fraud and the misstatement of numbers without the appropriate discovery and deterrence, and a lack of responsible accountability and disclosure to the American people.

Any 'solutions' from the government that fail to address these fundamental problems are not only doomed to failure, but probably represent a looting of public funds by powerful special interests.

If you are holding US dollars and financial assets you are paying for this with an indirect tax on your wealth.


The Wall Street Journal
Merrill paid employee bonuses before sale to Bank of America

LiveMint.com
Thu, Jan 22 2009. 5:30 PM IST

Despite Merrill reporting a massive loss of $21.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008, the report noted that the company had “set aside $15 billion for 2008 compensation

London: Collapsed banking entity Merrill Lynch accelerated the payment of bonuses to employees just days before closing its acquisition by the Bank of America, says a media report.

“Merrill Lynch took the unusual step of accelerating bonus payments by a month last year, doling out billions of dollars to employees just three days before the closing of its sale to Bank of America,” the Financial Times has reported.

The daily pointed out that the timing is notable because the money was paid as Merrill’s losses were mounting and Ken Lewis, BofA’s Chief Executive, was seeking additional funds from the government’s troubled asset recovery programme to help close the deal.

Last week, the US Federal government had pumped in another $20 billion into Bank of America mainly to absorb losses incurred from the buyout of Merrill.

This is in addition to $25 billion which it ploughed each into Bank of America and Merrill last year, respectively.

Despite Merrill reporting a massive loss of $21.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008, the report noted that the company had “set aside $15 billion for 2008 compensation, a sum that was only 6% lower than the total in 2007, when the investment bank’s losses were smaller”.

The bulk of 15 billion dollars compensation was paid out as salary and benefits throughout the course of the year,” the report said. Further, attributing to a person familiar with the matter, the report said that an estimated $3 to $4 billion dollars was paid out in bonuses in December.

Merrill and the Bank of America shareholders had approved the takeover on 5 December. “Three days later, Merrill’s compensation committee approved the bonuses, which were paid on 29 December,” it added.

22 January 2009

SP Futures Hourly Chart at 3:30 PM Update


The SP failed at overhead support today, and is now winding withing a symmetrical triangle within the downtrend.

The news of Microsoft layoffs dampened the bubbly froth over AAPL overnight.

The market at this point is guilty until proven innocent and so we continue to ride our hedge to the much shorter side after the failure at 844.

We're not riding a pure short because the bulls keep trying to find a footing and we have not seen the failure yet at 805. We'll also look for confirmation on techs.

Gold and silver are consolidating gains as the T Bond shows continued weakness.

Google out with earnings after the bell. Keep an eye out for the GE news and outlook tomorrow morning.



John Thain: Sacked! or Sach'd?


As reported earlier by Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism, it has recently been revealed that Merrill Lynch and John Thain accelerated the payment of substantial executive bonuses just prior to the company's crash, and their acquisition by BofA.

Merril Lynch: Infamia!

Perhaps the disclosure of substantial undisclosed losses was the last straw (18 billion versus 2 billion expected). You can take big bonuses, but not with big losses, unless you are at the-former-investment-bank-which-must-not-be-named, whose SIV is the Federal Reserve.

Bloomberg
Ex-Merrill Lynch CEO Thain Agrees to Leave Bank of America
By Josh Fineman and David Mildenberg

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Former Merrill Lynch & Co. Chief Executive Officer John Thain agreed to leave Bank of America Corp., a spokesman said.

Thain, who in September negotiated the sale of Merrill with Bank of America CEO Kenneth Lewis, “agreed his situation was not working out and that he should resign,” said Robert Stickler, a Bank of America spokesman, in an e-mail.

Trading chief Tom Montag will also leave the firm, CNBC reported.

Thain, 53, lost his job after Merrill’s unexpectedly large $15.4 billion fourth-quarter loss forced Bank of America to return to the U.S. government for a new funding package. Thain this year spent $1.2 million to redecorate his office at New York-based Merrill, CNBC reported today.

Thain had headed Bank of America’s wealth management and corporate and investment banking divisions. Senior Merrill executives Robert McCann and Greg Fleming resigned less than a week after the transaction was completed on Jan. 1.