Update on New Hampshire HCR 6 - Jeffersonian Principles

Hi Jesse,

Went to Concord today to observe the testimony before the committee regarding the resolution HCR 6.

Quite impressive number of people, at least 60, which I'm told is above average.

The bill's sponsor said as a result of his work, he's aware of six other states moving ahead with similar resolutions designed to send a message to DC on limiting federal government.

Montana may vote this week. The bill's sponsor and co-sponsor are getting much publicity and calls from constituents.

About six state reps testified in favor of adoption. Another half dozen citizens spoke. Some were quite eloquent, they brought up the economic mess, the Federal Reserve, and their own understanding of our history and Constitution.

We will be following the bill's progress and hope they recommend it to the NH Legislature which may be as soon as later next week.

I'll keep you updated---

Bill

SP Futures Hourly Chart

The Congress will be voting on the stimulus package tonight. We think the market has this baked in. The action today *could* have been a front-running of this news, but it had all the look and feel of a simple short squeeze. The specs were getting short ahead of what looks to be a bad Non-Farm Payrolls number tomorrow.

Gross Says Government Stimulus Must Be in Trillions

We watched the interviews at PIMCO on Bloomberg TV.

He may be sincere but there should be little doubt that Bill Gross was 'talking his book.'

Maybe Obama will spike the Jobs Numbers tomorrow to shake loose the money tree. He is a fool if he doesn't because it will not take much to put out a horrific number, especially after the years of pollyanna sand-bagging that had built up under Bush II.


Bloomberg
U.S. Must Spend to Avoid Mini Depression, Bill Gross Says
By Kathleen Hays and Dakin Campbell

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. may slump into a “mini depression” unless policy makers spend trillions of dollars to spur growth.

“This economy needs support from the government, a check from the government in the trillions,” Gross said today in a Bloomberg Television interview from Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “There is a potential catastrophe if the U.S. government continues to focus on billions of dollars.”

Gross manages the $132 billion Total Return Fund, the world’s biggest bond fund. The fund gained 4.8 percent last year and has outperformed 99 percent of its peers over the past five years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average government and corporate bond fund lost 8 percent in 2008, Bloomberg data show.

Pimco is a unit of Munich-based Allianz SE, Europe’s largest insurer.

The Jobs Number for January Could be Quite Bad, Much Worse than Expected

The non-seasonally adjusted number could come in around -3,400,000 jobs.

Luckily for the BLS January is the worst month for actuals, and therefore has the largest seasonality factor.

The 'imaginary jobs' number will not be a significant factor, since January is also the month in which they adjust out many of the imaginary jobs they added in the last six months that are obviously non-existent.

Our standard projections show the headline number coming in about -650,000+ which is pretty severe, but it could be much higher depending on how they apply the seasonality, or lower depending on how much they choose to adjust the prior months and 'smooth the decline.' An outside number could be -900,000.

So, all in all, there may be a large downward adjustment to December which may help to absorb some of the single month impact, but the consenses loss of 540,000 jobs looks optimistic.

Let's see what happens. We are prepared for the worst. We have some confidence that even 'the reformers' will gild the lily a bit to 'inspire confidence.' All statists fudge the numbers because the individual and the truth are servants of the state and the 'greater good.'