18 March 2009

Brokers Recalling Loaned Shares in Citi


Since this morning Bloomberg reports that major brokerages have been calling in the loaned shares that have been used for legitimate short sales in Citigroup.

This in part explains the rally in Citi today, as the shortsellers cover their positions ahead of a 2:30 PM deadline today by which they must return the borrowed shares.

It does seem rather calculated, particularly its conjunction with the Federal Reserve announcement.

We have not seen this in the general news, just on the Bloomberg TV analyst reporting.

There is the implication that this is a calculated market operation being conducting among big traders and the major brokerage houses who hold the shares for borrowing from customer accounts. Marketwatch seems to imply that this is being precipitated by 'the authorities.'

Nice timing to help bolster the financials after the FOMC announcement. This has the Larry Summers/Robert Rubin touch.

It would be a good thing indeed if the Obama Adminstration did something meaningful to curb naked short selling and enforce the existing regulations. But if they are doing so for only their favorite companies, then this is not market regulation, it is crony capitalism and insider trading.

Seeking Alpha

Citigroup Inc. – Shares are being squeezed once again today and the company has a valuation some 23% higher today with shares stretching above $3.00.

Intrigue continues in the June 5.0 strike options where arbitrageurs are using conversion plays that typically land a credit to take advantage of the squeeze. The volume in that line has more than 150,000 contracts trading both sides today with puts bought and calls sold when investors can position long of the stock.

Earlier in the week rumors did the rounds that the authorities might be on the hunt for hard-to-borrow stock certificates in select financial names.

This in itself has created a surge at AIG and Citigroup as desperate short-sellers try to cover their positions. The conversion trade could be established earlier in the week for a credit of 20 cents, but given the near-panic buying in the stock has shifted to a 1.10 cost to traders.

17 March 2009

The Obama Team's Economic Performance Is Pathetic


Wouldn't it be nice if one day the Obama Administration came up with a change, an innovative reform for the financial system that made us sit back and say, "Wow, that's great! That's exactly what we have been looking for."

So far it has been one misstep, one fumble, one tired old Henny Youngman routine after another. The Clinton Administration retread meets the road, and falls apart.

Things went badly beginning with the appointment of Larry Summers as key economic advisor.

Larry was one of the three man miracle team of Greenspan, Rubin and Summers that turned the Asian monetary crisis into the tech bubble after a smoke and mirrors economic recovery while the industrial base of the US continued to slide into the Pacific.

We have seen nothing that speaks of the promise that we felt when America said "enough" and voted for a change in the fall of 2008.

And after the Summers disappointment we received the the Rubin protege, Tim Geithner, with the thinnest of financial backgrounds, who while at the NY Fed helped to help transform the housing bubble collapse into the bailout bust.

His position at Treasury is such an obvious, glaring mismatch that he cannot even staff key jobs in his own department. Who would want to work under such an obvious, embarrassing failure?

This is not a poor performance. This is an abject, incompetent inability to address the most critical issue facing this country.

This is Obama's Iraq: a morass of crippling failure brought on by horrible advice from key advisors with their own agendas.

President Obama throws rhetoric at the problem from a distance, like he is still campaigning against something. He leaves the impression of a more articulate Bush, inspiring no lasting confidence, giving no impression that he is in charge, on top of the situation, in control with a well thought out plan. He can make you feel good while he is speaking, then reality sets in and you realize that there is nothing there. Where are the management skills to back up the rhetoric?

Don't get us wrong. This is still early in the game. But the Democrats are losing the early rounds, as the situation grows more dire.

Well, Mr. Obama, you are President now, and even though you have only a short time in the office, so far you have shown us nothing. Your shepherding of a stimulus bill through the Congress was a nightmare, made worse by Nancy Pelosi who is a mediocre House Speaker at best, but appears a dynamo in comparison to Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Tired old solutions, inbred beltway thinking, old boy insider dealing.

Embarrassing. Unworthy. Amateurish. Pathetic.

You are failing, and we see it, and the anger, and sense of quiet panic, is building.

Time to get serious, to get it together. Time to step up to the job and take command. Time to show us your best stuff, find the levers, roll up your sleeves, and step down from the pulpit.

Nasdaq 100 Futures Hourly Chart Into the Close


The market went out on its highs suggesting that we will get a strong opening tomorrow for the FOMC announcement at 2:15 PM EDT.

As a reminder, this Friday is the 'triple witching' option expiration. The markets are frequently volatile as the big players squeeze the overleveraged option speculators.

Adobe reports tonight after the bell.

To say that the better-than-expected housing start numbers ignited hopes for the economy and triggered today's rally is ludicrous rationalization.

This was a short squeeze for option expiry week, pure and simple.

Alcoa and Nucor announcements show how dire the economic situation has become.




Congressman Proposes 60% Income Tax Surcharge on AIG Bonuses


Interesting development indeed.

Michigan Democratic Rep. Gary Peters introduced a bill in the House of Representatives to impose a 60 percent surtax on bonuses over $10,000 at any company in which the U.S. government has a 79 percent or greater equity stake.

This is in addition to the usual income tax rate.

Its directionally not bad, but the level of ownership by the Federal government should be 51%, not 79%. And stiff penalties for management bonuses at any institution receiving TARP funds or FED support above a certain level are needed.

The reason that the Obama Administration is in this box over the contracted bonuses is that Geithner and Summers refused to take AIG into bankruptcy reorganization.

Why?

Perhaps it has something to do with the enormous exposure that Goldman Sachs had to AIG. Lloyd Blankfein, the chairman of Goldman Sachs, was the only non-government or Fed official who was at the meeting at which this bailout was decided.

Yes, the AIG bonuses are an enormous, shocking scandal.

But it is only the tip of the iceberg. Recall that we predicted early last year that the patsies and scapegoats would be thrown off the back of the getaway truck to try and satisfy the angry mob once the magnitude of the frauds became apparent even to the average person.

Well we are there, and they are throwing patsies out the window with greater noise and flourish, because, in short, the angry mob is getting louder, and they are afraid.


Reuters
Congress eyes bonus surtax amid AIG outrage
By Kevin Drawbaugh
Tue Mar 17, 2009 1:17pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Some members of the U.S. Congress on Tuesday proposed slapping a surtax on bonuses paid to executives at American International Group Inc, amid outrage over the large payouts.

Michigan Democratic Rep. Gary Peters introduced a bill in the House of Representatives to impose a 60 percent surtax on bonuses over $10,000 at any company in which the U.S. government has a 79 percent or greater equity stake.

"Currently, AIG is the only company that meets this threshold," Peters said in a statement. "The legislation I'm proposing will get taxpayers their money back.

President Barack Obama on Monday expressed "outrage" about $165 million of bonuses to employees of AIG, once the world's largest insurer, now being bailed out by the government.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said Peters' approach was "worth pursuing as an idea."

California Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman, a House Financial Services Committee member with Peters, said he favors "a tax law to impose a substantial surtax on excessive compensation paid to executives at bailed-out firms, especially AIG."

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has said he will subpoena AIG for more information about the bonuses, including the names of the recipients.

Peters said it was "beyond outrageous that the very people who brought AIG to its knees and helped create the current financial crisis are scheduled to receive hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses while tax dollars keep their company afloat."

Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley and Connecticut Rep. Joe Courtney, both Democrats, released a letter signed by 90 members of Congress to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urging that planned bonuses to AIG executives be stopped.

Braley also said in a statement that he introduced legislation "to increase the tax rate on any bonuses awarded by businesses receiving government TARP funds, including AIG."

New York Democratic Senator Charles Schumer warned AIG employees to return the bonuses they are receiving or face being slapped with a major tax on those payments.

"They should voluntarily return them (the bonuses). If they don't, we plan to tax virtually all of it," Schumer said.