We would have to agree that there is another significant wave incoming a from different set of bad loans in this financial crisis.
Contrast Deutsche Bank's actions with those of its Wall Street counterparts and remember this in the fourth quarter when they start queuing up at the trough for bailouts, warning of martial law, food shortages, and a breakdown of the financial system.
The Obama economic team's handling of the banks is disgraceful, serving a few politically connected Wall Street firms at the expense of the nation's interests.
The banks must be restrained, and the system brought back into balance, before there can be a sustained economic recovery.
Bloomberg
Ackermann Says Bad Loans Are ‘Next Wave’ of Crisis
By Elena Logutenkova
July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Rising delinquencies among consumer and corporate borrowers are the “next wave” of the financial crisis and may affect banks that have avoided losses so far, said Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann.
“This crisis has consisted of a series of earthquakes, with changing epicenters,” Ackermann said late yesterday at an event in Zurich. “Bad loans are the next wave. Banks that have fared relatively well so far will also be affected by this.”
Deutsche Bank, Germany’s biggest lender, said this week it set aside 1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) for risky loans in the second quarter. The seven-fold increase in provisions and below- forecast revenue from trading sent the Frankfurt-based bank’s shares to the biggest decline in four months on July 28. (Why don't they just ignore such risks like the American banking system and keep the bonus machine rolling? - Jesse)
“We were struck by the 44 percent increase in problem loans in the quarter,” Morgan Stanley analysts Huw van Steenis and Hubert Lam said in a note today, cutting their rating on Deutsche Bank shares to “equal-weight” from “overweight.”
Deutsche Bank fell 1.30 euros, or 2.8 percent, to 45.39 euros in Frankfurt trading, making it the worst performer on the 63-company Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index over the past five days with an 11 percent drop.
‘Crisis Not Over’
“The crisis is not over,” Ackermann said. “When one looks at the developments of global economic growth, then it can be expected that starting in the second half of this year we slowly move into the positive territory. But we’re still moving on a low level.”
Banks that were forced to take government aid and are now encouraged to increase domestic lending may be more in danger from rising loan defaults than companies that can expand internationally and diversify risks, Ackermann said.
Deutsche Bank “intentionally” reduced its balance sheet and risk-taking this year, he said. (No soup for you, Deutsche Bank employees. - Jesse)
“We were disciplined in our considerations about what risks which should take,” Ackermann said. “If we had played it out to the full extent, we could have earned significantly more.” (And if you were front running the DAX with high frequency trades using government funds you would be rolling in profits - Jesse)
31 July 2009
Looming Financial Crisis Dampens German Banker's Earnings
30 July 2009
SP Futures Hourly Chart Updated at 3 PM
See why we put *IF* the neckline is broken on that potential H&S top?
Goldman, Wall Street and their friends in government and the media came out swinging this morning. The SP futures took off from the neckline on some fairly thin rationales, but good enough for an end of month paint job.
This is starting to feel like a real top being formed, with the Wall Street crowd and their demimonde out with the pom poms trying to cheer the institutions and smaller investors with end of month 401k money into the market to buy them out of this anemic rally near a high note.
If you are long or hedged as we are in a paired trade then you are doing all right for a choppy market, and if you are short your timing is probably a little ahead of the market at least, and you are feeding the machine. If you are long and strong, well then, good luck to you.
Be careful. For the longer term this rally appears to be just business as usual into the end of the month with insiders selling vigorously and with a few of the Wall Street crowd front running it with positional and inside information on every turn.
As a reminder watch the VIX and the NDX futures, and perhaps a broader index or two, as well as the SP 500 since those futures are the paintbrush most highly favored by the tape painters.
GDP tomorrow. Who can tell how it will turn out, except to say it will likely be revised. We'll ignore the headline and look more deeply into the numbers.
29 July 2009
SP Futures Hourly Chart at 2:30 PM EDT
A potential Head and Shoulders top has formed. It will be a valid formation but the objective will not be activated until and unless the neckline is broken.
Volumes remain light, with lots of technical gamesmanship that contributes to quite a bit of volatility in the short term, aka a 'daytrader's market.'
There is quite a bit of 'tension' in the market ahead of the GDP report tomorrow. The consensus is for growth of 1.5%. We are still a couple of weeks short of the timeframe we have projected for a top and the beginning of a leg down in markets, but some data or exogenous surprise could accelerate this.
There is a de facto partnership between the government and the banks with regard to the financial system and the economy which is spilling over to the equity markets. This is a similar arrangement that brought us the housing bubble and the credit crisis after the tech bubble and crash of 2001, which itself was a reaction to the Asian and Russian currency crisis of the late 1990's.
The financial engineers will likely not abandon their efforts until they either succeed, or finally shake the real economy apart and destroy the US financial system and currency. How they define 'success' is likely to be stability at the price of freedom, a classic oligarchy with 'enlightened despots.' Their financial engineering will require ever greater control over policy and priorities to maintain its artificial equilibrium.
The banks must be restrained, the financial system reformed, and the economy brought back into balance before there can be a sustained recovery.
