01 December 2011

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Wall Street Talking Up a 'Santa Claus Rally'



The SP 500 has managed to work its way back into the symmetrical triangle from which it had broken down, with a lot of help from Bernanke and the western Central Banks.

Let's see if they can hold it here, and even break out. Headline risk remains elevated, and nothing has really changed except for a short term blast of dollar liquidity.

As a reminder, tomorrow is the Non-Farm Payrolls Report.




Will there be a 'Santa Claus Rally' on the US stock market this year,
or will things just keep getting worse?



The Y-T-D Performance of Various Assets: Gold, Silver, US Stocks, Bonds, and AAPL





Doing Nothing Is Still Making a Choice
And the winner is gold, at least for now with one month left in the year.

I included AAPL because it is the poster child for the stock rally and is often touted by shills for Wall Street and the hedge funds as a superior investment amongst stocks on chat boards and 'news programs.'

It should be noted that recently the US 30 Year Bond has greatly outperformed the US 10 Year Note because of the Fed's 'Operation Twist.' It has still underperformed gold in the short term at about 19% unless you wish to compare some derivative of the bond like zero coupons or a fund rather than the bond plus accrued interest. The discrepancy there between the bond and the derivatives is most likely an indication of speculation based on the Fed's actions.

Remember the charts below do not include any interest payments received on the notes so the overall return is a little higher.

Also, Silver is notoriously volatile, and it is perfectly capable of 'catching up' with gold rather quickly. And I do think the silver market is being massively manipulated for some reason by one or two of the money center banks. When that manipulation breaks down, the resultant rally could be memorable.  But as you know I do think that silver is more 'speculative' than the safer haven of gold.

But for now the comparisons are what they are. If you have held gold through thick and thin you have done well.

And if you think of all the money you could have made if you had traded in and out of it cynically, be warned that those gains are illusory.

Thanks to notorious lapses and the ideology of deregulation this is one of the most corrupt and treacherous markets I can remember in thirty years, or even read about except perhaps for a few of the pre-crash bubble markets.

I think Ian McAvity has summarized this quite well:

The big change has been the utter corruption of Wall Street and that nearly 80% of the trading on the New York Stock Exchange now is being done by high-velocity computers. When an investor puts in an order, it's basically one computer versus another computer operating in nanoseconds. That's why all of a sudden the volume is up or down 10 to 1 and you get a couple of hundred points added on or taken off the Dow in minutes. To me that's a corruption of the process. "Ethics" and "Wall Street" are words you never use in the same sentence.

The trading mechanism is broken down. Leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are designed to consume the client's capital in leveraging and rebalancing premiums. The high velocity traders literally get the opportunity to "front-run" public orders as the order flow to "the market" is available to them for a fee. It's outrageous in the sense that they've legalized front running for those who pay up for the high-speed data feed. And then there's the initial public offering (IPO) business. Anytime the public can get shares in an IPO, they don't want it. If they can get some, it's only because it's not going to be that good a deal...

It's the culture of greed coming out of the banking system. The Street always wanted to make money. That's never gone away. But there was a time when good clients were actually respected by a firm. A firm wanted to do well for a good client because it wanted to keep the family assets in the firm. These days a client is considered to be a mark. The system is designed to convert the client's capital into their fees and income as quickly as possible. The public is being chased out. There have been persistent outflows from domestic equity mutual funds since 2007. A lot of people justifiably don't trust it...

As you know my personal preference is to hold gold and silver bullion in a fully owned and secure situation, and to keep the rest of your wealth in specific income producing investments which you closely control and manage preferably in an area in which you are experienced and knowledgable.

And as you must, find the safest banks available and store your necessary cash holdings there. Canadian and Swiss banks come to mind. US Treasury Direct in short term maturities is acceptable for those who must hold Dollars, but keep in mind that at some point those funds too may be subjected to the same seignorage by Wall Street that all other paper assets and savings are now enduring.

The mispricing of risk always involves the inevitable loss for some and gains for others. And as a rule of thumb, the further your money is away from the Wall Street and global money center banks, the better off it may be. As desperation sets in, the cheating and theft will become increasingly brazen and blatant, until the system breaks down and then is hopefully reformed.

Something like MF Global was unthinkable just a few years ago, for those who have forgotten the lessons of history. And it will get worse before it gets better.    Do what you can to support change and reform, even if it is to passively support those who speak out, or to stop encouraging the worst by continually fall for their tricks and  mindlessly repeating their false arguments and propaganda.

But at the very least protect yourself.  A few things may be relatively safer, but nothing will be easy.  It is going to be a rough year ahead.

And for those who have a mind to it, you may wish to consider how foolish it is to endlessly worry about how to protect your money, while giving so little care about not losing the only thing  that you really possess and may take from this world, which is yourself, your very being.  "For what does it profit a man...."





30 November 2011

The Other One Percent: Corporate Psychopaths and the Global Financial Crisis




Anyone who has ever worked in a large corporation has seen the empty suits that seem to inexplicably rise to positions of power.  They talk a great game, possessing extraordinary verbal acuity, and often with an amazing ability to rise quickly without significant accomplishments to positions of great personal power, and often using it ruthlessly once it is achieved.

Their ruthless obsession with power and its visible rewards rises above the general level of narcissism and sycophancy that often plagues large organizations, especially those with an established franchise where performance is not as much of an issue as collecting their rents.

And anyone who has been on the inside of the national political process knows this is certainly nothing exclusive to the corporate world.

Here is a paper recently published in the Journal of Business Ethics that hypothesizes along these lines. It is only a preliminary paper, lacking in full scholarship and a cycle of peer review.

But it raises a very important subject. Organizational theories such as the efficient markets hypothesis that assume rational behaviour on the part of market participants tends to fall apart in the presence of the irrational and selfish short term focus of a significant minority of people who seek power, much less the top one percent of the psychologically ruthless.

Indeed, not only was previously unheard of behaviour allowed, it became quite fashionable and desired in certain sections of American management where ruthless pursuit of profits at any cost was highly prized and rewarded.  And if caught, well, only the little people must pay for their transgressions.  The glass ceiling becomes a floor above which the ordinary rules do not apply.

If you wish to determine the character of a generation or a people, look to their heroes, leaders, and role models.
This is nothing new, but a lesson from history that has been unlearned. The entire system of checks and balances, of rule of law, of transparency in government, of accountability and personal honor, is based on the premise that one cannot always count on people to be naturally good and self-effacing. And further, that at times it seems that a relatively small group of corrupt people can rise to power, and harm the very fabric of a society.

‘When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.’

Edmund Burke


'And remember, where you have a concentration of power in a few hands, all too frequently men with the mentality of gangsters get control. History has proven that.'

Lord Acton

These things tend to go in cycles.  It will be interesting to see how this line of analysis progresses. I am sure we all have a few candidates we would like to submit for testing.   No one is perfect or even perfectly average.  But systems that assume as much are more dangerous than standing armies, since like finds like, and dishonesty and fraud can become epidemic in an organization and a corporate culture, finally undermining the very law and principle of stewardship itself. 

'Our government...teaches the whole people by its example. If the government becomes the lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy.'

Louis D. Brandeis

MF Global, and the reaction to it thus far, is one of the better examples of shocking behaviour that lately seems to be tolerated, ignored,  and all too often met with weak excuses and lame promises to do better next time, while continuing on as before.

"These corporate collapses have gathered pace in recent years, especially in the western world, and have culminated in the Global Financial Crisis that we are now in.

In watching these events unfold it often appears that the senior directors involved walk away with a clean conscience and huge amounts of money. Further, they seem to be unaffected by the corporate collapses they have created. They present themselves as glibly unbothered by the chaos around them, unconcerned about those who have lost their jobs, savings, and investments, and as lacking any regrets about what they have done.

They cheerfully lie about their involvement in events are very persuasive in blaming others for what has happened and have no doubts about their own continued worth and value. They are happy to walk away from the economic disaster that they have managed to bring about, with huge payoffs and with new roles advising governments how to prevent such economic disasters.

Many of these people display several of the characteristics of psychopaths and some of them are undoubtedly true psychopaths. Psychopaths are the 1% of people who have no conscience or empathy and who do not care for anyone other than themselves.

Some psychopaths are violent and end up in jail, others forge careers in corporations. The latter group who forge successful corporate careers is called Corporate Psychopaths...

Psychologists have argued that Corporate Psychopaths within organizations may be singled out for rapid promotion because of their polish, charm, and cool decisiveness. Expert commentators on the rise of Corporate Psychopaths within modern corporations have also hypothesized that they are more likely to be found at the top of current organisations than at the bottom.

Further, that if this is the case, then this phenomenon will have dire consequences for the organisations concerned and for the societies in which those organisations are based. Since this prediction of dire consequences was made the Global Financial Crisis has come about.

Research by Babiak and Hare in the USA, Board and Fritzon in the UK and in Australia has shown that psychopaths are indeed to be found at greater levels of incidence at senior levels of organisations than they are at junior levels (Boddy et al., 2010a). There is also some evidence that they may tend to join some types of organisations rather than others and that, for example, large financial organisations may be attractive to them because of the potential rewards on offer in these organizations."

Clive R. Boddy, The Corporate Psychopaths Theory of the Global Financial Crisis, Journal of Business Ethics, 2011


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Crony Capitalism and More On Modern Monetary Theory



Bernanke and the western Central Banks stepped in to provide a jolt to the paper markets, and of course, the commodity markets including precious metals.

Intraday commentary on this here.






Steve Schwarzman, Chairman (and co-founder with Peter G. Peterson) of Blackstone and a Prince among crony capitalists, was on Bloomberg television today. Blackrock is the world's largest private equity fund.

Last year Steve referred to any attempt to raise taxes on his income via changes to the 15% rate on carried interest as 'a war,' the equivalent of 'Hitler invading Poland in 1939.' This was said in a private meeting, and was a big departure from his smoothly polished public persona.

His solution to the financial deficit is to have poor and lower income people pay more federal income taxes, in addition to state, sales, gasoline, and payroll taxes, to 'broaden the tax base' as it were, so they can have 'more skin in the game.' His own taxes should obviously remain unchanged.

I was intrigued by this particular general principle that Steve shared: "Whenever credit is more constrained, it is extended to someone. The key is to be that someone."  No matter what it takes.  And at advantageous rates I presume, in order to buy distressed assets like sovereign assets on the cheap.

Steve strongly endorsed Mitt Romney for President as a personal choice saying, "I've made money with that man." 16x their money on the first, and 24 x on the second to be exact. And he hopes to make and keep even more with Mitt as President.

Speaking of money, here is a short primer on Modern Monetary Theory.



And the Regulatory Process in Efficient Markets