02 February 2012

Commodity Wars: Why Just Trade Milk When You Can Buy the Cow (Cheaply)?



As you may recall, I was speaking about the Currency War long before it became a recognized issue. From my analysis of history and the major monetary trends it seemed inevitable even in 1999, and events shortly after that confirmed it.

Those who see what is going on behind the scenes are securing supplies of key commodities and hard assets. And this is not limited to the large national banks and financial firms.

Consolidation in the mining sector is going to happen in a rush when the panic for supply ensues. But it will be the same for several key sectors.

This is a recurring macro theme and major trend, an extension of the Currency Wars as the US dollar regime that has existed since the end of World War II shifts and changes.

Since the outcome is uncertain, the major players are grabbing assets now that will likely be playable chips no matter what the eventual resolution.

The status quo will continue to posture, running their bluffs and trying to hide the facts, while lining their own pockets I might add, as they are untrue, frightened, and unworthy.

So do not be fooled if the path continues to twist and wind with bumps along the way. These things happen slowly over a long period of time, but then often seem to come at you all in a rush.
"In the days that were before the flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noah entered into the ark, And knew not until the flood came, and swept them all away."
Secure your wealth, look to your family and especially remember whom you chosen to serve, and hold your own self tight in your fingers, hoping for the best with a steady faith, a good conscience, and a loving heart.

I still believe that serious stagflation is the more likely outcome, as compared to the less likely hyperinflation or protracted deflation. However we may see a significant devaluing of the euro and the dollar against 'hard assets' that may or may not include the Asian currencies.

Batten down the hatches. Rough waters ahead.

Guardian
Glencore and Xstrata in talks over $82bn 'merger of equals'
By Rupert Neate
2 February 2012 04.13 EST

Commodities trader Glencore and mining giant Xstrata are in discussions on an $82bn (£50bn) merger to create a company that would dominate the global mining industry.

Xstrata, already one of the world's largest mining companies, confirmed on Thursday morning that Glencore, the world's biggest commodity trading company, had formally approached it with plans for a "merger of equals". The announcement sent shares in Xstrata rocketing 12% in early trading to £12.56. Glencore shares were up almost 4% at 448.6p.

"Xstrata confirms that it has received an approach from and is in discussions with Glencore International regarding an all-share merger of equals which may or may not lead to an offer being made by Glencore for Xstrata. There can be no certainty that any offer will be made," the company said in the statement that follows a flurry on speculation.

UK "put up or shut up" takeover rules mean Glencore has until 1 March to make a formal offer...

01 February 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts



"When a man takes an oath, he's holding his very self in his own hands, like water. And if he opens his fingers then, he needn't hope to find himself again."

Thomas More, A Man For All Seasons

The metals are right up against key resistance, and the bear are trying to make a goal line stand.

I have shorts back on the stocks after today's rally. I am balancing those with some metals longs.



SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Facebook Cometh, Some Day



A bounce higher broke the four day downtrend in equities. But they are still moving in a fairly narrow range and on light volumes.

Facebook is the big tickle du jour. See the intraday comments on that topic as well as the role of risk in the markets, the Commodity Wars, and MF Global.




Bubble Watch: The Facebook IPO Is Rumoured to Be Coming Out



Morgan Stanley is taking the lead.

Will it be NAS: FB or NYS: FB?

The filing is said to be coming this afternoon.

If it does come out at $100 Billion I think it is more than fully valued. You would have to go back to the tech bubble for growth comps in that range.

And Facebook is certainly no Google or Apple.

But it is a mistake to underestimate the greed and gullibility of people determined to become rich without working for it, and their willingness to risk hot money that they view as an overvalued, depreciating asset class.

Still if it comes out that high, and then pops and flops, stick a fork in this phase of the stock bubble. Sometimes they do ring a bell, and often right after ripping off your Facebook.

But if it comes out that high and then rallies, we might be looking at a return to a familiar theme.

As one corporate CEO said privately to incredulous staff at the height of the internet bubble while paying an enormous premium for a major acquisition, 'I am paying with stock, and my currency is cheap.' His currency was indeed cheap, and within a year or two it was about 95 percent cheaper. But by then he had already departed for greener pastures and the golf links.

How low can the dollar go? How much cheaper can it get? That may help in pricing this oinker out. It might even look pretty after a few rounds of print goggles.

But on the other non-real recovery hand, how many ads can a national economy sell to people with no jobs and no money?

Stay tuned...


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