09 February 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - More of the Same - Monetary Trends



Some economists were saying patently silly things about gold today.

It might be useful to review why gold proves such an irritant to financial engineers and modern monetary theorists.

Typically when this happens we are a few weeks away from a major money episode of some sort, most generally of the printing kind. 

The Fed has a penchant for allowing asset bubbles to form, although that typically ends rather badly.  The mispricing of risk is the antithesis of fostering a healthy market economy. It is ironic that it is so often done in the name of restoring 'confidence' which afterwards appears to be little more than cleverness and hubris, if not downright folly. Confidence obtained by deception or false premises never lasts, and is always corrosive. But it can appear to be expedient.
"I don't know where the stock market is going, but I will say this, that if it continues higher, this will do more to stimulate the economy than anything we've been talking about today or anything anybody else was talking about."

Alan Greenspan
A stock bubble does not stimulate real economic growth, even though it may temporarily confer the appearance of vitality. Rather it encourages malinvestment and the dissipation of resources. In the end it affects the transfer of wealth from savers and labor to speculators and financial insiders. And the corruption drives out productive investment.
"Whoever commits a fraud is guilty not only of the particular injury to him who he deceives, but of the diminution of that confidence which constitutes not only the ease but the existence of society."

Samuel Johnson
The volatility on the stock indices is very subdued, if not complacent. Be careful.



SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Winding Up for a Move - VIX


"Once stock prices reach the point at which it is hard to value them by logical methodology, stocks will be bought as they were in the late 1920s not for investment but to be unloaded at a still higher price. The ensuing break could be disastrous because panic psychology cannot be summarily altered or reversed by easing money policies."

Alan Greenspan, 1959

The Fed and its acolytes in the banking system sometimes foster an environment where equity prices rise in a steady manner, with little solid underpinning. The higher they go, the further they slide away from rational valuations, the less is required for them to take a tumble.

At the extreme, it can be a bit of a mystery and rather difficult to determine what exactly caused the market collapse. This is how it was with the Great Crash of 1929. Most often it can be something mundane and seen before, but at that stage of the bubble's ascent can cause a fatal break in confidence. And then comes the deluge. And confidence is not so easily restored.



08 February 2012