Jesse's Café Américain

A few people have asked me to post the complete Comex Metals Calendar for 2012.

So here it is, and you can find it here. I am afraid that the usual futures brokers have not published a handy pocket calendar of the key dates again this year, possibly as MF Global has cast a general pall on enthusiasm for the markets.

As a word of caution for all you amateur analysts, not all expirations and key dates are created equal. And the equations that drive prices, especially in the short term, are multi-variate with multi-dimensional lags and secondary and tertiary effects.

I used to be able to derive decent intermediate term multivariate regressions for certain commodity prices even a few years ago, but lately the markets seems to have become just a shoving match with less rational linkage to the real world than one might imagine.

This is probably the effect of the Fed's ZIRP policy, with the buying and selling of bonds and other instruments in the market at non-market prices, causing the subornation of the pricing of risk that makes most other value discovery just a short term shell game.

And of course the market regulators have pretty much rolled over for the insiders at every key juncture. At least the long term fundamentals prove resilient, but only over the longer term. Negative real interest rates as a powerful force even in la la land.

I have this nagging suspicion that there will be a major break in the equity and other paper markets, possibly tied to some non-market macro event, in the first half of this year, likely in March. I cannot say how the metals will react because that depends on the nature of the trigger event and manner in which the crisis unfolds.

I do like the model of the deflationary withdrawal of the sea of liquidity with the subsequent tsunami of paper. But that is too textbook perhaps.

It is likely, however, that the pigmen will once again place an offer on the table that they think the people cannot refuse. Or the refusal will be ignored by the peoples' representatives even if they do object, as happened in the manner of TARP.

Fear and confusion in the herd creates opportunities for the predators of all stripes. The best remedy would be for the more moderate elements in the Tea Party and the Occupy movement to find common cause and put aside their emotions, but that is not likely since such popular movements of discontent are often led at the extremes and by popular emotions. The lack of leadership and platforms has immunized the OWS movement so far, but one wonders if it can last.

The same coming together of moderate Muslims, Christians and Jews of good will would be effective for promoting the cause of justice for that matter. But there is nothing worse than a family fight among children when it comes to arguing about who is their father's favorite, no matter what their father has said, and the tasks that has given them to do.

An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.

The great mass of independents seem to be angry, but do not know whether 'to shit or go blind' as the colloquialism goes. History suggests that they will first do the latter, then the former. But there are a range of possibilities.

Feb. 23 Comex March silver options expiry
Feb. 23 Comex March copper options expiry
Feb. 24 Nymex February platinum futures last trading day
Feb. 24 Nymex February palladium futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex February gold futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex February copper futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex February E-micro gold futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex March E-mini copper futures last trading day
Feb. 27 Comex March miNY silver futures last trading day
Feb. 29 Nymex March palladium futures first notice day
Feb. 29 Comex March silver futures first notice day
Feb. 29 Comex March copper futures first notice day
March 16 Nymex April platinum options expiry
March 20 Nymex April platinum futures first notice day
March 27 Comex April gold options expiry
March 27 Comex April copper options expiry
March 28 Comex April miNY gold futures last trading
March 28 Comex March silver futures last trading day
March 28 Comex March copper futures last trading day
March 28 Comex April E-mini copper futures last trading day
March 28 Nymex March palladium futures last trading day
March 29 Comex April E-mini gold futures last trading day
March 30 Comex April gold futures first notice day
March 30 Comex April copper futures first notice day
April 25 Comex May copper options expiry
April 25 Comex May silver options expiry
April 26 Comex April gold futures last trading day
April 26 Comex April copper futures last trading day
April 26 Comex April E-micro gold futures last trading day
April 26 Comex May E-mini copper futures last trading day
April 26 Comex May miNY silver futures last trading day
April 26 Nymex April platinum futures last trading day
April 27 Comex April silver futures last trading day
April 30 Comex May silver futures first notice day
April 30 Comex May copper futures first notice day
May 24 Comex June gold options expiry
May 24 Comex June copper options expiry
May 26 Comex June miNY gold futures last trading day
May 29 Comex May silver futures last trading day
May 29 Comex May copper futures last trading day
May 29 Comex June E-mini copper futures last trading day
May 29 Comex June miNY gold futures last trading day
May 31 Comex June gold futures first notice day
May 31 Comex June copper futures first notice day
May 31 Nymex June palladium futures first notice day
June 26 Comex July silver options expiry
June 26 Comex July copper options expiry
June 26 Comex July silver futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June gold futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June copper futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June E-micro gold futures last trading day
June 27 Comex July E-mini copper futures last trading day
June 27 Comex July miNY silver futures last trading day
June 27 Nymex June palladium futures last trading day
June 29 Comex July silver futures first notice day
June 29 Comex July copper futures first notice day
June 29 Nymex July platinum futures first notice day
July 26 Comex August gold options expiry
July 26 Comex August copper options expiry
July 27 Comex August miNY gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July silver futures last trading day
July 27 Comex July copper futures last trading day
July 27 Comex August miNY gold futures last trading day
July 27 Comex August E-mini copper futures last trading day
July 27 Nymex July platinum futures last trading day
July 31 Comex August gold futures first notice day
July 31 Comex August copper futures first notice day
Aug. 28 Comex September copper options expiry
Aug. 29 Comex August gold futures last trading day
Aug. 29 Comex August copper futures last trading day
Aug. 29 Comex August silver futures last trading day
Aug. 29 Comex August E-micro gold futures last trading day
Aug. 29 Comex September E-mini copper futures last trading day
Aug. 29 Comex September miNY silver futures last trading day
Aug. 31 Comex September silver futures first notice day
Aug. 31 Comex September copper futures first notice day
Aug. 31 Nymex September palladium futures first notice day
Sept. 21 Nymex October platinum options expiry
Sept. 25 Comex October copper options expiry
Sept. 26 Comex October miNY gold futures last trading day
Sept. 26 Comex September copper futures last trading day
Sept. 26 Comex September silver futures last trading day
Sept. 26 Comex October E-mini copper futures last trading day
Sept. 27 Comex October gold options expiry
Sept. 28 Comex September gold futures last trading day
Sept. 28 Comex October E-mini gold futures last trading day
Sept. 28 Nymex September palladium futures last trading day
Sept. 28 Comex October gold futures first notice day
Sept. 28 Comex October copper futures first notice day
Sept. 30 Nymex October platinum futures first notice day
Oct. 25 Comex November copper options expiry
Oct. 27 Comex November E-mini silver futures last trading day
Oct. 27 Nymex October platinum futures last trading day
Oct. 27 Comex October silver futures last trading day
Oct. 27 Comex November E-mini gold futures last trading day
Oct. 29 Comex November E-mini copper futures last trading day
Oct. 29 Comex October gold futures last trading day
Oct. 29 Comex October copper futures last trading day
Oct. 31 Comex November copper futures first notice day
Nov. 27 Comex December gold options expiry
Nov. 27 Comex December silver options expiry
Nov. 27 Comex December copper options expiry
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY gold futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex November copper futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex December E-mini copper futures last trading day
Nov. 28 Comex December miNY silver futures last trading day
Nov. 30 Comex December gold futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Comex December silver futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Comex December copper futures first notice day
Nov. 30 Nymex December palladium futures first notice day
Dec. 21 Nymex January 2013 platinum options expiry
Dec. 26 Comex January 2013 copper options expiry
Dec. 27 Comex December gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December silver futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December copper futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December E-micro gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex January 2013 E-mini copper futures last trading day
Dec. 28 Nymex December palladium futures last trading day
Dec. 30 Nymex January 2013 platinum futures first notice day
Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 silver futures first notice day
Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 copper futures first notice day

What time does the next train arrive, Herr Doktor?

The irony of course is that it is not the Germans but the Anglo-American banks and the global monied interests that have perfected and employed this modern financial warfare, again and again, around the world for the last forty years or more. They have been using debt, money, and the subversion of democratic law to take down whole countries, wage wars of plunder and aggression, create puppet governments, and reduce people everywhere to misery.

Their motto is 'greed is good' and 'der Wille zur Macht.' And they are the terror that spawns the madness, the children of Hell on earth.

"What most occupied the attention of the State Department [in 1934] was the outstanding German debt to American creditors. It was a strange juxtaposition. In Germany there was blood, viscera, and gunfire; at the State Department in Washington, there were white shirts [of the wealthy career diplomats and career politicians], Hull's red pencils, and mounting frustration with [Ambassador] Dodd to press America's case [for full payment of the sovereign German debt]...

In Berlin, Dodd was unmoved. He thought it pointless to pursue full payment, because Germany simply did not have the money, and there were far more important issues at stake...

Through his first year in Germany [1933], Dodd had been struck again and again by the strange indifference to atrocity that had settled over the nation, the willingness of the populace and the moderate elements in the government to accept each new oppressive decree, each new act of violence, without protest...

Dodd continued to hope that the murders would so outrage the German public that the regime would fall, but as the days passed he saw no evidence of any such outpouring of anger..."

Erik Larson, In the Garden of Beasts

They are coming home, little brother. And they are bringing it back with them. All of it.

"Struggle is the father of all things. It is not by the principles of humanity that man lives or is able to preserve himself in the animal world, but solely by means of the most brutal struggle...I do not see why man should not be just as cruel as nature...Success is the sole earthly judge of right and wrong...The day of individual happiness has passed.

The great strength of the totalitarian state is that it forces those who fear it to imitate it."