17 May 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Massive Short Covering Rally From Deeply Oversold



Facebook priced after the bell, 421 million shares @ $38 with a PE of 107 and a Price/Sales of 25.

This is "the largest internet IPO in history" (Ring Ring Ring).

It will start trading in the public markets, as opposed to dark pools and private deals, tomorrow after 11 am Eastern Time.  That will make share acquisition a bit problematic in Europe.

The wiseguys are geared up for a multiday pop and drop. The drop part may not arrive for a few weeks, and could mark a watershed event if it happens. More relies on Ben Bernanke than Mark Zuckerberg.  I think Facebook will place somewhere between Google and Groupon.  I would not buy at the $60 price I expect to see print tomorrow.  It will probably see sub 20 before it sees 100.

Shares for borrow and shorting may not show up in size until next week after the settlement for shares being sold tomorrow.  But I would not underestimate the 'special arrangements' that might be made for short selling into the close of trade on Friday.

Gold and silver soared today. I had intraday commentary in which I show the metrics I have been watching that showed gold at a major oversold condition that has marked at least short term bottoms for at least the last year.

So what next. Gold and silver must continue to diverge from stocks as a safe haven despite weaker economic news and troubles in Europe. I think that this is possible.

I thought the selling of the last three days was utterly artificial judging by the behaviour of the open interest which stayed steady and even rose! Gold and silver were passing from weak to strong hands in the face of blatant price manipulation designed to frighten the average investor.

Let's see how equities do tomorrow in the face of option expiration, and the uncertainty of Europe and the weekend.

Facebook may ring a bell. Let's hope that the nonsense in gold and silver is over at last.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Facebook Cometh - Last of the Dot Bombs?



Big down day in the US markets today as the trading desks flushed out their weaker positions and got ready to pump up Facebook tomorrow for what could work out to be the mother of pump and dump operations. I do not expect the fat lady to sing tomorrow, but I think she will start warming up for what could be remembered in a few years as the end of an era, a watershed event.

Let's see what happens. I do not expect a down day in the stock markets tomorrow but I could be wrong. Equities are short term oversold.

Tomorrow is also an options expiration.



Devaluing the Dollar - Against What?


When people talk about devaluing the dollar, as opposed to reissuing it completely, the natural question is, against what? What would one devalue it against officially if you do not wish to reinstitute a formal gold standard, which is clearly the preference of the Western central bank.

One likely candidate might be the SDR issued as a new currency for global trade, and for the pricing of international goods and commodities.

The major bone of contention as I have pointed out before would be the new 'basis' for the SDR. What Will the World's Reserve Currency Become?  The BRICs are adamant for the inclusion of additional currencies and gold and silver to make a portfolio that is less weighted to the US, Europe, and England.

A country would have the option to retain their own national currency for domestic use.

This is regards to devaluation as opposed to a hyperinflation and reissuance in which case old dollars would be scrapped for 'new dollars' with a couple of zeroes knocked off.

A friend sent this information about the US Post Office my way today. The speculation on the 'new composition' of the SDR is mine. I am assuming that the number of Euro countries decreases.

The US Post Office is using US$ to SDR conversion tables for international mail insurance --> US Postal Service US$ to SDR Policy and Tables

Earliest reference I could find to when the USPS started pricing in SDRs is 2009, which is well after the initial financial crisis.

IMF publishes daily tables on SDR values--> IMF SDR Daily Tables

Quick calc: at today's SDR rate of 1.52 SDR to 1 US$, if a new global dollar like currency was issued, then a current $1 US would buy you 66 cents of that new currency.

This is about a 34% drop in the $ value.

And that is probably best case scenario, since the daily SDR rate is priced
relative to 3 other currencies. If the US$ were to take a pounding prior to
issuance of a new currency, the exchange rate would be even less favorable to $ holders.

Summary: The pricing mechanism for replacing the greenback is in place. As
your anxiety level rises on the $, feel free to check daily to see what your bank deposits would be worth after a bank "holiday".

Net Asset Value Premiums Of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds