25 May 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Fed Will Backstop a Run On the Exchange



The situation remains rather volatile and open to an exogenous event.

Gold has not yet broken its downtrend. We do have the option expiration under our belts at least and are entering a heavy delivery season.

I thought it was interesting that the US government has directed the Fed to backstop the Comex and ICE in the case of a liquidity event or a run on the exchange.

In that event be ready to accept a forced settlement in paper, and to possibly forsake any metal held in custody at an exchange depository to a soft confiscation, ie it was not there in the first place and will be lost in a wave of defaults.



SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Tiptoeing Into the Long Holiday Weekend



Concerns about Greece and its potential impact on the global banking system continue to dominate the financial trade.

Some think that there will be some resolution this week because of the US holiday on Monday. That is possible.

If there is a positive resolution the equity markets will rally very hard. On the other hand if Greece withdraws from the euro, and perhaps even the EU altogether, there may be bank runs which the authorities will work very hard to circumvent and ring fence.

Most likely outcome is nothing will happen just yet although one must respect the possibilities for some exogenous event.




Max Keiser Interviews Teri Buhl On JP Morgan's Wells Notice


I found the description of the Wells Notice to be interesting.



Source

Teri Buhl's column discussing this and the implications.

US to Backstop the Anglo-American Derivatives Exchanges with Fed Dollars - 'Too Big To Fail'


It sounds like the principle of keeping AIG whole on its obligations so that it can pay off to the banks at 100 cents on the dollar. This should make Jamie feel a little better about his bad derivatives trades.

And Blythe should rest easy knowing that Benny has her back on those massive metals shorts.

Sounds like they even plan to have the Fed backstop the derivatives trade in London.

Heads the banks win, tails those holding US dollars lose.

How will they support the next bailout? Austerity!

Wall Street Journal
A Mess the 45th President Will Inherit
Thursday, May 24, 2012

Taxpayers Now Stand Behind Derivatives Clearinghouses

...Little noticed is that on Tuesday Team Obama took its first formal steps toward putting taxpayers behind Wall Street derivatives trading -- not behind banks that might make mistakes in derivatives markets, but behind the trading itself. Yes, the same crew that rails against the dangers of derivatives is quietly positioning these financial instruments directly above the taxpayer safety net.

As we noted in May 2010, the authority for this regulatory achievement was inserted into Congress's pending financial reform bill by then-Senator Chris Dodd. Two months later, the legislation was re-named Dodd-Frank and signed into law by Mr. Obama. One part of the law forces much of the derivatives market into clearinghouses that stand behind every trade. Mr. Dodd's pet provision creates a mechanism for bailing out these clearinghouses when they run into trouble.


Specifically, the law authorizes the Federal Reserve to provide "discount and borrowing privileges" to clearinghouses in emergencies. Traditionally the ability to borrow from the Fed's discount window was reserved for banks, but the new law made clear that a clearinghouse receiving assistance was not required to "be or become a bank or bank holding company." To get help, they only needed to be deemed "systemically important" by the new Financial Stability Oversight Council chaired by the Treasury Secretary.

Last year regulators finalized rules for how they would use this new power. On Tuesday, they began using it. The Financial Stability Oversight Council secretly voted to proceed toward inducting several derivatives clearinghouses into the too-big-to-fail club. After further review, regulators will make final designations, probably later this year, and will announce publicly the names of institutions deemed systemically important.

We're told that the clearinghouses of Chicago's CME Group and Atlanta-based Intercontinental Exchange were voted systemic this week, and rumor has it that the council may even designate London-based LCH.Clearnet as critical to the U.S. financial system.

U.S. taxpayers thinking that they couldn't possibly be forced to stand behind overseas derivatives trading will not be comforted by remarks from Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler. On Monday he emphasized his determination to extend Dodd-Frank derivatives regulation to overseas markets when subsidiaries of U.S. firms are involved...

Read the rest here.