Puzzled About QE? Watch the Adjusted Monetary Base

Quantitative easing is generally reflected in the expansion of the Monetary Base of the Federal Reserve Bank.

There could be instances wherein monetary expansion in the nature of QE could be done 'off balance sheet' in the manner of swaps, etc.

But in general, unless the monetary base starts contracting, not just stable, then QE is still in place. It can change to a form of 'qualitative easing' without affecting the overall nominal value of the base.

Are Stocks In a New Bear Market?

Maybe they will be, but the charts do not show that yet.

I prefer to use the Russell 2000 when determining such things, because the other indices are too narrow and subject to single sector vagaries and manipulation. This is especially true of the Dow Industrials and the NDX.

So far what we have seen is about a 50% retracement of the most recent rally leg.

One might also make the case that stocks have entered a trading range after the V bottom formed after the financial crisis.

But they could break down further from here.   Let's see what happens.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Egan Jones Downgrades the UK

Intraday commentary here.

Egan Jones downgrades the sovereign debt of the UK after the bell to AA-.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Quiet Day Despite Early Volatility

The light volumes made the Spoos amenable to the old push and shove.

Markets are still very edgy, with today as perhaps just a short covering pause and some profit taking on the bear side.