Jeff Sachs: The Movie

"But what it's led to is this sense of impunity that is really stunning and you feel it on the individual level right now. And it's very very unhealthy, I have waited for four years, five years now to see one figure on Wall Street speak in a moral language.

And I've have not seen it once. And that is shocking to me. And if they won't, I've waited for a judge, for our president, for somebody, and it hasn't happened. And by the way it's not going to happen any time soon, it seems."

Jeffrey Sachs

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

Thin and a surprisingly negative cast to the Central funds. O Canada!

Barrons notes that Slumping ETFs and Futures a Stark Contrast to Coin Sales.

Wall Street can create and manipulate paper shares, but they do not have the power to mint coins.

And when they looked there, the cupboard was bare.

Recall that this is an FOMC day, and so a hit on the metals has some tradition. Especially when the Fed is boxed into a corner.

And some of the key overseas trading areas are closed today, so the mice will play.

Let's see what happens with the Fed. We'll know this afternoon, a little while after the insiders are informed.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - FOMC Rate Decision Tomorrow at 2:15

"God has numbered your reign.  You have been weighed, and found wanting."

The FOMC will issue its rate decision at 2:15 tomorrow.

I would expect some wording change to reflect the deteriorating macroeconomic outlook in the US, even if they do not admit it.

The Chicago PMI came in weak, showing a contraction. Tomorrow we get the national ISM number and I think that will show a slight contraction as well, a little light of 50. But its hard to say.

We will also get the latest ADP employment change number, although it seems to have little impact except during a Non-Farm Payrolls week and at the extremes of estimates.

ECB will make a rate decision of their own on Thursday.

AAPL cheered the equity markets today by announcing its intentions to issue a record amount of new debt, on the order of $17 billion, in order to 'pay dividends and buy back stock.'   They are doing this to avoid bringing back profits they have sequestered overseas to avoid paying taxes.

This is innovation, American style.

There are repeated rumours of a private run on the bullion banks from the ranks of the wealthy. Apparently they are pulling their bullion holdings out of even the 'allocated stores' of the banks and moving them to private storage facilities.

As you know, Ben Bernanke will be leaving the Fed soon, most likely to retreat back to Princeton and start writing his version of history, while taking a few spins through the revolving door.  The discussion of his possible successors makes one's skin crawl.  The economists are lining up to be considered for a chance at this largess of power and position, strutting their stuff like tarts on 11th Avenue.    A sign of the times perhaps that the job will go to some smarmy insider.  That is Obama's style.

Let's see what happens.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - NYSE Margin Debt Levels Back to Post-Crisis Highs

The SP made a new record high today as April draws to a close.  Sixth month in a row that the stock markets have turned in a gain.

Sell in May and go away.

The FOMC will make a decision about rates tomorrow at 2:15.

Chicago PMI came out with a contraction today. Most economic indicators are now showing a contraction except for stocks and 'confidence' which is led by the equity market.

Complacency rules. And it is dangerous.

And this in a thinly traded market. Seems like an almost certain recipe for disaster if the easy momentum trade turns lower on even some seemingly trivial event.

NYSE Member Firm Debit Balances In Margin Accounts (MARGDEBT).
John Mendelson

MARGDEBT, at the end of March 2013 (latest figures released) rose to $380 billion up 4% over February and just a hair below the all-time high of $381 billion as of July 31, 2007….a period some may recall.

I am often told in meetings that there is no speculation or notable leverage in the current market. I believe the March figure speaks for itself.

A chart of Margin Debt back to the end of 2006 is included.