17 September 2013

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Tech Charges Higher


Stocks caught a bounce today as the markets wait for news from the FOMC tomorrow on the much awaited taper.

Money is flowing out of bonds into equities as fears cool and the market realizes that it is inevitable that bonds have topped, no matter how slowly the great trend change may come given the Fed's policy of subsidizing rates.   This once again will cause risks to be mispriced alas, and may put forward a rocky path to the unwary investor.

Have a pleasant evening.





Max Keiser and Greg Palast on Larry Summers and the Financial Crisis


"Cynicism masquerades as wisdom, but it is the farthest thing from it. Because cynics don’t learn anything. Because cynicism is a self-imposed blindness, a rejection of the world because we are afraid it will hurt us or disappoint us.”

Stephen Colbert

In our time truth comes from the mouths of comedians, because otherwise no one would take it seriously. 

Here is an interesting discussion that Max Keiser had with investigative reporter Greg Palast about Larry Summers and 'The Endgame Memo.' The interview occurred a few days before Summers withdrew his name from consideration as the next Fed Chairman.

Jeffrey Sachs has previously raised some serious concerns in a video speech to the Philadelphia Fed about his own conversations with the financial leaders of other nations, and the anger which they feel towards the US regarding the rampant financial fraud which caught their own economies in the financial crisis through the promulgation of bad paper and manipulative derivatives.

Obviously I do not know if all of what Palast is saying is correct. But the memo seems to be legitimate.  And it is also puzzling that Obama was pushing Summers so hard against such strong political headwinds, with a track record of serial disasters and potential scandals and conflicts of interest abounding.

Obama and Summers finally withdrew the nomination when faced with a revolt from their own Senators, and the normally complacent economist community, at the idea of placing Summers in charge of the Fed.    

Apparently even the culture of hypocrisy has its limits. 

I just finished reading This Town by Mark Leibovich.   In 1974 roughly 3% of Congressmen stayed in the District as lobbyists after serving their terms.  Today that number is approximately 50% of Senators and 43% of Congressmen who stay in the Beltway to become highly paid lobbyists, fueled by corporate money, cashing in on connections and influence often for the same causes which they fought against while in the Congress.  
“In poor countries, officials receive explicit bribes; in D.C. they get the sophisticated, implicit, unspoken promise to work for large corporations”

Nassim Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes
We have seen the meteoric rise of 'full service firms' that contain former high profile figures of both the Republicans and the Democrats in a partnership of cynicism, raw power, and greed.  Right or left, they offer a one stop shop that can fix any problem, fashion and implement any loophole, and promote aggressive war and excuse genocide with a straight face if there is enough money to be made in it.  

The story in the book is how broadly the politicians are co-opted by the promise of salaries in the tens of millions, even while they are still legislating.  It envelopes the journalist community and the media, and it has gotten completely out of hand. 

It is as if the government has been taken over by an army of Huey Longs of the right and the left, who operate on a principle of shameless self-enrichment.  They bamboozle the public with distracting emotional issues, while allowing the powerful interests which they serve to rob them blind. 

And the extreme moral hazard is that there are rarely any lasting negative consequences for anything if done with the right spin, since cynical competence has become rite of passage in The Club, and the fashionably proper thing to do.  The only sin is virtue, because it is bad for business. 

And if you think movements like the Tea Party are a force for reform through small government and deregulation, the problem is a bipartisan loss of shame, decency, and compassion in the cult of the self,  across the political spectrum.  Deregulation is the first tool of the financiers and their corporations.

Some years ago the French novelist Léon Bloy wrote in The Woman Who Was Poor that 'the only tragedy is that we are not all saints.' What a quaintly funny thought in our cynical culture, to aspire to high ideals and self denial.   Jed Purdy laments this loss of striving for good in his book For Common Things.  We lose our innocence in cynicism.  It is as it is.  And such acquiescence makes one blind to their own hardened hearts, deaf to the agony of the victims, and unmindful of the approaching abyss. 

In our time the prophet is the will to power,  and its god and measure is money.  The only tragedy is not to get filthy, stinking rich, even if it is done over the crushed bodies of innocent people.  And it is not enough to get richer than everyone else, but one must also see the others fail, and to be crushed.   How much more sweet then is the victory.

The suppression and co-opting of the legitimate voices for positive change is perhaps the saddest thing of all.  But it is certainly nothing new to anyone who has even a passing familiarity with the darker passages of history.  And for those who say I would never, the gods first make them mad.

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery.

The American dream is dying on our watch, having been led down a blind alley of powerful self-interests and big money, and strangled.   As Roger Babson said on 5 September 1929, "sooner or later, a crash is coming, and it may be terrific."

Welcome to The Hunger Games.  And may the odds be ever in your favor.






16 September 2013

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - JPM To Pay About $800 Million Fine for London Whale


"On Sunday afternoon, facing a revolt by his own party’s senators, Obama dumped Larry as likely replacement for Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board...

But the fact that Obama even tried to shove Summers down the planet’s throat tells us more about Obama than Summers—and whom Obama works for. Hint: You aren’t one of them."

Greg Palast, Larry Summers: Goldman Sacked

JPM has agreed to admit wrongdoing and will pay about $800 Million in fines for concealing the huge trading losses in the case of the London Whale.

The precious metals rallied with stocks overnight as Larry Summers released Obama from having to cut him loose as a candidate for Fed Chairman.

The reason that Larry and Obama did this is quite simple.  There was broad bipartisan opposition to Summers in the Senate which precluded a confirmation. Sometimes it really is that simple.  Obama's own Senators refused to go along with it on principle and practicality.  That is how bad it was.  And that is pretty bad.

There was little other support to be gained as footing, except from Wall St insiders, with over 400 economists signing a petition that said Summers was a poor choice, giving their endorsement to Yellen. It was a policy battle that could not be won, and for which no strong allies were to be found.  One has to wonder what motivated Obama into such an awkward display in pursuit of a hopeless and apparently cynical policy decision.

Just like Syria. 

So what next. The metals were capped all day in a concerted manner. I suspect that this will continue until the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.

Let's see if any additional physical offtake is prompted by this, or if just a steady flow in background will still continues. Keep in the mind that COMEX is not a primary delivery exchange of any real importance. But the low inventories of gold bullion are more of a indicator of trends than a hard stop on anything. The COMEX will probably not be the locus of a failure to deliver. That honor is more likely to be held by the LBMA, perhaps even in response to some market dislocation in Shanghai or Hong Kong.

Have a pleasant evening.



SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Summers' Over


Stock futures popped quite a bit higher overnight as the announcement that Larry Summers was no longer in play gave heart to the monetary doves, and hopes of QE for the foreseeable future.

Stocks gave much of that overnight hype back during the day as AAPL continued to lead tech lower, and the SP sagged.