Adjusted Monetary Base Is On a Tear Again - Efficient Markets Policy Error

I thought we would drop in at policy central and see what the Fed has been doing with the US money supply using its policy and regulatory powers.

The first chart shows that the Adjusted Monetary Base is growing by leaps and bounds. This is Billions of Dollars in Fed Balance Sheet expansion.

This chart shows the leaps and bounds of monetary base growth a little more clearly, since it is the growth of the base, in Billions of Dollars, but in year over year terms. Those are essentially trillion dollar growth swings.

 

This next chart indexes a number of measures to the economic trough in 2009, for sake of comparison.

It shows the growth in the Fed's monetary base, as well as the excess reserves being held by the Banks.

Below those it shows Wages, Consumer Credit, M2 Money Supply and the Velocity of M2, that is, the rate at which money is being used by the real economy.

We should bear in mind that despite all the hoopla, sturm und drang, and whining by the Wall Street banking elite, the US financial system is still largely unreformed.

This situation brings to mind a quote about economic policy from John Kenneth Galbraith:

“Trickle-down theory represents the less than elegant metaphor that if one feeds the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows.”

― John Kenneth Galbraith

There wasn't a Fed database entry for the income of the one percent, but if there had been it would be doing very well indeed.

I did not include this in the already busy chart above, but here is Total Assets of All Commercial Banks, using the same indexing method that was used above.  Looking past the rhetoric, the priorities seem fairly clear if you look at the growth trend in assets starting in 2011, and then look at the same time period in the chart above.

This is when the Fed implemented QE2, from Nov 2010 through June 2011, and then began 'Operation Twist' in September 2011.

QE3 started in September 2012 and continues today.

I think that history may view the co-opting of the urge to reform the banking system, and the outrage at the Wall Street bailouts, into the Tea Party's strong popular backing for financial repression of the victims, and the centering of the political debate on throttling government spending for the public good while propagating a financial system that heavily favors and subsidizes the wealthy financiers, to be one of the great propaganda coups of the 21st century.

Almost as good is running a populist presidential candidate, packaged as a progressive reformer and widely denounced by the opposition as a socialist, who in policy practice is the virtual reincarnation of Herbert Hoover, but without his many prior logistical accomplishments.

Comex Registered Gold Falls To a New Low at 640,552 Ounces - Claims Per Ounce At High of 59

There was a withdrawal of 17,988 registered ounces of gold from the Scotia Mocatta warehouse on Tuesday.

The three kilogram bars representing 96.46 ounces came back to the registered category at Brinks. 

This brings the total ounces of deliverable (registered) gold down to a new low of 640,552 ounces for this leg of the gold bull market.

The 'owners per ounce' of registered gold is still bumping around the all time high of 59 potential claims per ounce.  For the interest of those who have asked, I include the comparable charts for silver this evening as well.

As claims are presented at these prices, gold will have to be delivered.  If the gold becomes scarce at these prices, higher prices may be called for to make additional supply available. The bullion banks can continue to resort to leasing gold from the central banks and using it to settle claims, but that particular game seems to be coming to a sad and sorry end.  When Germany asked for the return of its gold and was flatly refused, we heard the faint sounds of a fat lady preparing to sing.

Weighed and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - A Banquet of Consequences

"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences."

Gold was held below the $1320 level and silver the $22 level once again.

I tend to think they are coiling for a move, but we will probably have to wait while Twitter comes out to play, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics squeezes out another Non-Farm Payroll Report on Friday.

We finally had a little action in the Comex warehouses. I will be posting on that separately later tonight.

You may have heard that a group of traders have come forward claiming that they have proof of price manipulation in the Brent Crude market.

Let's see, at last count that makes about EVERY major market that has been rocked by a profound scandal of price rigging and market manipulation, enabled or perpetrated by a major player in the Anglo American banking cartel. There is all kinds of weird shit going on, but nothing to see here in precious metals markets, so move along. 

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Bernanke in Twitterland

We start hitting the substance of the economic reports with GDP tomorrow and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

The Twitter IPO looms over the market action as well as the real economy, and I have a sneaking hunch that the Street will support stocks until Twitter gets shoved out the door tomorrow, and perhaps for a few days after.  As you have probably heard it is coming out on the higher side of $26 per share.   Let's see how it does in the market.

I am not in stocks here, but am fighting an urge to get something going on the short side until we get a better idea if they can keep this pig in makeup for the year end ramp at least.  Twitter may give us some insight.

This market is built on a foundation of meringue, supplied by those little elves at the Fed, who are pumping huge sums to Wall Street while Main Street languishes with little excess buying power and a floundering median wage.

While the Fed does not control fiscal policy, they have a huge amount of leverage as a primary bank regulator that they are not using well.

Have a pleasant evening.