18 March 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - FOMC Meeting Day One


Today was the first day of the FOMC meeting. Tomorrow they will announce their latest reading of the entrails of the real economy at 2 PM EDT.

It was 'risk on' all the way, as money moved into equities. And Treasuries as the yield fell. Surprisingly those two moved in concert, but on thin volumes. Pretty as a picture. Endless prosperity and no worries.

Gold has now come back down to test the neckline.  Let's see how we end the week.

There will be a Comex option expiration next Tuesday for the more important April contract.  We are getting closer to a real delivery month, at least in terms of the Comex which delivers relatively little.

Have a pleasant evening.





SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Rallying Up to Resistance on Thin Volumes


Today was the first day of the FOMC meeting.

Stocks rallied higher on rather thin volumes. I wonder if they will make it to the top of the trending channel.

VIX is back to fairly complacent levels despite the international turmoil. All is well in the Pax Americana.

Another Banker took his own life.  He had some connections to the London Whale trade. 

Have a pleasant evening.





17 March 2014

Grant Williams: Crimea River


"'Public clashes between Ukrainians and Russians in the main square in Sevastopol. Ukrainians protesting at Russian interference; Crimean Russians demanding the return of Sevastopol to Russia, and that parliament recognise Russian as the state language. Ukrainian deputies barred from the government building; a Russian "information centre" opening in Sevastopol. Calls from the Ukrainian ministry of defence for an end to the agreement dividing the Black Sea fleet between the Russian and Ukrainian navies. The move is labelled a political provocation by Russian deputies.

The presidium of the Crimean parliament announces a referendum on Crimean independence, and the Russian deputy says that Russia is ready to supervise it. A leader of the Russian Society of Crimea threatens armed mutiny and the establishment of a Russian administration in Sevastopol. A Russian navy chief accuses Ukraine of converting some of his Black Sea fleet, and conducting armed assault on his personnel. He threatens to place the fleet on alert. The conflict escalates into terrorism, arson attacks
and murder.'

Sound familiar? All this happened in 1993, and it has been happening, in some form or other, since at least the 14th century.

Instead of blustering into their microphones in a frenzy of self-righteous indignation, the leaders of the US and EU would do well to spend a few minutes swotting up on the history of this volatile region. They would learn that Crimea has a long history of conflict between its Ukrainian, Russian and Tartar communities, and has been ping-ponging back and forth between Ottoman, Russian and Ukrainian jurisdiction for years..."
So begins an article in the UK Guardian this week, written by a British novelist of Ukrainian origin, Marina Lewycka Ukraine and the west: hot air and hypocrisy; and amidst all the furore surrounding the events in Ukraine these past couple of weeks, it's important to gain a little perspective in order to understand the history surrounding the country's fractious relationship with Russia and its recent dalliance with European suitors.

The key to the stand-off over Ukraine is the Crimean Peninsula — no stranger to conflict over the years and home to the infamous "Valley of Death" into which rode the 600 whom Tennyson commemorated in his epic poem recounting the ill-fated Charge of the Light Brigade. The order that sent those gallant young men to their inevitable doom is symptomatic of the kinds of catastrophic misjudgements that get made when emotions are running high...

Read the entire piece, with its wonderful title, by Grant Williams in downloadable pdf format here.




I am certainly no expert on the politics of the Ukraine, past or present. I remember the Orange Revolution, and that there is significant corruption in those regions of the world is nothing new. We have admirable amounts of it here as well, as we tend to forget. And it is mildly galling that there are never any consequences for financial miscreants and neo-cons, who lie us into financial crises, and wars under the false pretexts of patriotic fervor. 

The humanitarian cloak of freedom is a popular colour when worn for adventures abroad, but it seems often to be sorely lacking at home these days.  And the hardest voices for humanitarian wars are often the hardest voices on their own, especially the weak, the infirm, the elderly.  And those hard voices, those tough guys, are rarely in the fight themselves.

But one thing I am sure of is that Orwell, and General Smedley Butler for that matter, had it right.
"War against a foreign country only happens when the moneyed classes think they are going to profit from it."

George Orwell
With a few exceptions of a more defensive nature perhaps,  I think that this is about right. And I would hope we are all aware that the 'defense' excuse is often the contrived refuge of some very worldly men and their private interests involving money and power.

Does that sound skeptical, even cynical? Well then, perhaps I am becoming so with experience.

Have a pleasant evening.

Related:

Ukraine: Who Is Playing For What - GolemXIV


Remember These Words


As you examine your own self, and your conscience, remember these words.

As you face your trials now and in the future, remember these words.

When you hear conflicting versions of the truth, remember the hallmark of these words.

When your faith is strained,  and hope seems pointless, and your love begins to grow cold, and fear eats at the marrow of your bones,  remember these words.

Not many may remain standing, but those that do, will remain standing only with love.  If you do not hold closely to love, above all else, then you may have already fallen.  And if there is time, you might be able to stand again, and gather yourself together, and continue to go forward.  Even Peter himself fell three times, but in his sorrow and humility rose again.
If I speak in the tongues of men or of angels, but do not have love, I am only a resounding gong or a clanging cymbal. If I have the gift of prophecy and can fathom all mysteries and all knowledge, and if I have a faith that can move mountains, but do not have love, I am nothing. If I give all I possess to the poor and give over my body to hardship that I may boast, but do not have love, I gain nothing.

Love is patient, love is kind. It does not envy, it does not boast, it is not proud. It does not dishonour others, it is not self-seeking, it is not easily angered, it keeps no record of wrongs. Love does not delight in evil but rejoices with the truth. It always protects, always trusts, always hopes, always perseveres.

Love never fails. But where there are prophecies, they will cease; where there are tongues, they will be stilled; where there is knowledge, it will pass away.

For we know incompletely and we prophesy incompletely, but when our fullness with God comes, what is incomplete and imperfect disappears. When I was a child, I talked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I put the ways of childhood behind me.

For now we see life as only a reflection, darkly, as if in a mirror; then we shall see true life face to face. Now I know incompletely; then I shall know fully, even as I will be fully known.

But for now these three virtues abide: faith, hope and love. And the greatest of these is love.

1 Corinthians 13:1-27