Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Option Expiration

"The mischief springs from the power which the moneyed interest derives from a paper currency which they are able to control, from the multitude of corporations with exclusive privileges which they have succeeded in obtaining in the different States, and which are employed altogether for their benefit; and unless you become more watchful in your States and check this spirit of monopoly and thirst for exclusive privileges you will in the end find that the most important powers of Government have been given or bartered away, and the control over your dearest interests has passed into the hands of these corporations."

Andrew Jackson, Farewell Address, March 4, 1837
 

What a parcel of rogues in a nation.

Although it was not much discussed on bubblevision, today was the fairly important stock option expiration for US equities.   It was utterly overshadowed by the big BABA IPO.

Next week will be an option expiration for the precious metals on the Comex.

I cannot remember when sentiment was this low amongst the metals crowd since around 1999-2001 timeframe.

I do suspect we are making a bottom, and somewhat artificially low at that.  This ought to do enough damage to supply to provide for a high upside IF and WHEN markets become transparent and honest again.

But I will not say we actually have a bottom until we break this trend of lower highs and lower lows.  That is a mugs' game.  And there are plenty of mugs out there, who have called about forty of the last three or four bottoms in the precious metals markets.  Fear not, when the time comes, they will be 'right.' 

We need to maintain some discipline in our thinking and a focus on the fundamentals.  Talk is cheap.

So what does this mean?  Holding positions with NO leverage, and of a comfortable size with a longer term price horizon that do not interfere with short term cash flow needs.   To do otherwise places one at the mercy of the short term market speculators and manipulators.

If the precious metals are insurance, do you place all of your assets in insurance?  Hardly.

I know it is especially tough on those who hold the miners.  They are a leveraged form of bullion ownership.  And what is worse is the great complacency which so many mining execs act towards their own shareholders. 

Not to mention the so-called metals analysts who will unqualifiedly claim that there is NO rigging in these markets, after the many scandals of the last five years showing that if there is money to be made in any market, it will be rigged.

Have a pleasant weekend.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - The Error of Their Ways

“To keep any great nation up to a high standard of civilization there must be enough superior characters to hold the balance of power, but the very moment the balance of power gets into the hands of second-rate men and women, a decline of that nation is inevitable.”

Christian D. Larson

Today was the day of Alibaba, the biggest IPO ever.  Huzzah!

The great BABA ran up to $99.70 in the first hour after its open, and then settled back down into the low 90's.  This is quite  jump over the IPO which priced out last night at $68.

Is there a fat lady singing in there anywhere?   I am not sure, but I think I hear a familiar melody.

The equity market is an asset bubble.  And when it breaks, there will be another attempt to transfer the debts to the broader public, with no penalties to the perpetrators. 

And then we shall see how the cards may fall.  And who knows?  They may do it all over again after that?  What is to stop it?

Have a pleasant weekend.

 

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Making Room for Alibaba - For All That

The wiseguys were raising cash to participate in the Alibaba IPO tomorrow.

It should price tonight by about 5 PM Eastern US. The mid range pricing is $66 to $68 per share.

So there was little surprise that we saw a pump in stocks today and a big drop in volatility.

The metals held up well but that is not saying much after the multi-day smacking they have taken.

The vote on Scotland's Independence is today and the results should be announced this evening. The polls, for what they are worth, are 'too close to call' although they show the 'no' votes with the lead.   Whatever the results I wish the Scottish people well.

There is an impulse to freedom in the world these days, that seems to have certain select parties very nervous. They do not care for independent thinking, and individual liberty. They dislike groups that question authority or attempt to hold it to account. And they certainly shrink at the thought of gold and silver.

These are the cadres of would-be professional rulers and managers, for whom oligarchy seems to be the natural form of governance. They wish for the ascendancy of the State, the bigger and more comprehensive the better, as long as they are within the circles of its power.

Not that I am all that concerned about their motives per se, or willing to speculate upon them. But any group that believes that they have been pre-selected, whether by birth or by talent, to rule strikes me as one group that ought never to have access to an exceptional power over others. They are certainly most likely to continue on a foolhardy path of their own, despite all other evidence to the contrary. God help the common people and soldiers led by such a one as these.

Speaking of leaders pursuing an unfortunate path despite all evidence to the contrary, there was intraday commentary which you may wish to view both here and here.  I think the Anglo-American financiers have made a truly Faustian bargain, and seem to be determined to pursue it to the bitter end.

One of the greatest features of the American independence movement of 1776 was that it was founded on the assertion, however unfortunately and incompletely implemented, that 'all men are created equal. And that they are endowed by their Creator with inalienable rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.'

From our own privileged vantage point we tend to take such a bold assertion for granted. But it was a truly revolutionary idea given that it was uttered in a milieu which was still very much ordered by class distinctions, and the divine right of kings, and the presumed natural superiority of the few.  In many ways it turned the world-that-had-been upside down.  As you may recall, this is the tune that the British army under Cornwallis played as they surrendered at Yorktown:  The World Turned Upside Down.

And that message reverberated around the world, and was echoed by the Scotsman Robbie Burns in his wonderful song written in 1791, A Man's a Man For All That.'

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - There Goes Larry Ellison, Here Comes Alibaba

"A swath of early investors in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. will be able to sell more than $8 billion worth of shares on the day the Chinese e-commerce company goes public, an unusual arrangement that is influencing how bankers price the offering.

Alibaba plans to price its shares at $66-$68, which at the midpoint would give it a valuation of about $165 billion.

Insiders and other investors in companies staging initial public offerings are generally required to hold on to shares for several months, in "lockup" arrangements banks design to help protect the stock's price in its early days.

But with Alibaba, a number of shares equal to about a third of what could be sold in the deal aren't covered by such restrictions, according to the company's public filings. In contrast, no pre-IPO shares of Facebook Inc. FB +0.84% were allowed to be traded when the social-media company made its market debut.

Demand for Alibaba's shares appears strong ahead of its expected IPO Friday...

WSJ, Alibaba IPO Gives Insiders Rare Chance to Sell Early

After the bell the word came out that Larry Ellison will be stepping down as the CEO of Oracle. He will remain as the Chairman and Chief Technology Officer.  Bloomberg was gushing with the news.

The big news for tomorrow will be the results of the vote for Scottish Independence, which I view as a more political issue with implications for the Anglo-American banking cartel, if one subscribes to domino theories. Scotland's independence is dangerous in the same way that the peaceful demonstrations of Occupy were dangerous. It gives other people ideas.

And the big, big news will be the Alibaba IPO. It is being brought to market fairly briskly, on the day after they have ended their road show.

As you may recall, Goldman will be managing the order flow of shares tomorrow.  If they were not holding the bag for unsold shares I might be a little more concerned.

The secondary market might be lively, because of general 'edge' to the market, and the number of insider shares that are not 'locked up' from trading on the first few days of the IPO. 

I bought a little volatility today. I might buy more. I was talking with an acquaintance, and he asked me if the old saw 'sell Rosh Hashanah' might be in order this year (starts at dusk on 24 September). I said it might be a little late.

Let's see how the events of tonight and tomorrow go, and most particularly how we start off next week.

Have a pleasant evening.