NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

Flight to safety.

The prices have not yet begun to reflect the supply situation which is being extended and papered over by leverage.

When that leverage starts unwinding, the prices may go higher with somewhat impressive velocity.

It would be better for the price managers to allow the precious metals markets to go higher now, with a more controllable slope. But their fears and hubris may betray their wiser counsels.

I have this wonderful image of some Captain Bligh (as played by Larry Summers) of an economist shouting that they must 'hold the line' on the precious metals.

And the harried bureaucrats of Treasury and the Fed continue to lease out vast amounts of other people's gold, while privately shitting their pants with the thought of what will happen if their miscarried intervention is disclosed to the markets.  My career!

 

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The Almighty Dollar

Gold and silver tried to rally on the overnight but the US market sat on the precious metals throughout the day.

Stocks managed a dead cat bounce.

The action in the Comex, both in the delivery report and the warehouses was inconsequential. That might be a good label for the Comex going forward: the Inconsequential Index.

Oil is continuing to take it on the chin, with various theories about why it is plunging. Some say it is OPEC 'putting the screws' to the US producers who need the higher marginal prices, especially for shale production.

Others say it is the US and its allies hurting Putin's Russia with de facto sanctions on Russia's oil wealth.

Personally I think it is more of a slack in aggregate demand overall that is becoming a concerning trend to anyone who cares about the real economy, mixed with a squeezing out of speculative money due to the Banks being prohibited from engaging in wholesale speculation.

The precious metals story is now in EurAsia, and those who fails to recognize this really do not know what is going on.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Alibaba Rang the Bell

There was a dead cat bounce off key support that took the major stock indices back up to prior support.

But that rally faded into the afternoon. The bulls were able to slow the descent and avoid a late day plunge as we had seen yesterday.

Stocks managed to finish slightly higher, holding their key support levels.

So what next. CSX and INTC reported beats on earnings and revenues after the bell. Earning *might* help if they are overwhelmingly good.

We will be getting some macroeconomic news for the week starting tomorrow. The bulls need to bounce them here and hold on to the gains.

Have a pleasant evening.

Comparing One Dimension of the Policy Responses of the ECB and the Federal Reserve

Here is a chart comparing the Balance Sheet Assets of the Fed and the European Central Bank.

It is important to recall that the Fed has been providing extensive funding to non-US, largely European, multinational Banks through their US subsidiaries.

This also does not compare the sovereign debt of the two regions, but rather just one measure of their Central Banks policy responses.  It does not indicate how those assets are being used, by whom, and to what effect.

Nevertheless there seems to be a clear divergence between the two policy responses.