24 September 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quite the Options Expiration - Will To Power


"The world is ours, we are its lords, and ours it shall remain. As for the host of labor, it has been in the dirt since history began, and I read history aright.  And in the dirt it shall remain so long as I and mine and those that come after us have the power.

There is the word. It is the king of words—  Power. Not God, not Mammon, but Power. Pour it over your tongue till it tingles with it. Power.”

Jack London, The Iron Heel

The Comex had an options expiration today for the precious metals, and they certainly rose to the occasion.

If you wondered why such an unusual thing happened, it is because the October contract is not all that important in and of itself, but it has some technical attractions given the option 'hook' which is offered.  A fine opportunity to skin the common trader if you will, who probably have no business swimming with those sharks.

There was some intraday commentary about why it happened as it did here.  

I admit that it went much higher than I thought it would, but it was well worth a bet on the side. Sorry, but even in my old age I cannot resist the occasional wager, the call of the wild.   lol.

Much more importantly, the physical bullion supply situation, or what some have been calling 'the float,' seems to be approaching some sort of crossroads, or even the elusive denouement of the gold pool that many of us have been long awaiting.

Gold is a bit easier to understand for me.  The underpricing of gold and the stubbornly high demand from Asia is sucking the paper markets dry of their underlying bullion.  

Stated a bit flippantly but generally correctly, if you underprice something that people want, and they ignore your clumsy PR campaigns and assorted devices to convince them that they do not want it, they may empty your shelves of it.

I keep wondering why so many people are missing this, even among the 'pros.'   Many listen to 'experts' who are parroting whatever they are instructed.  That is how it too often is.

But I do think that that quite a few are being misguided by what they think that they know well.  These are the ones who were deeply into the paper trade, and proudly knowing all its jargon, its nooks and crannies.    They see the same old rubbish system they know so well still spinning along, but cannot begin to imagine that incredible changes are taking place in other parts of the world of which they know relatively little, and care very little as well.

So ignoring or deriding the great sea change in global monetary exchange that some call the currency war, they are fooled by the familiar.
"In times of change learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists."

Eric Hoffer
Silver has a tightness of its own, but it is manifesting differently.  The Bucket Shop is well supplied of silver, but that refuge for the bullion bullies, the central banks, are out of silver inventory altogether.  Judging from the Comex they do have JPM as their proxy, sitting on a silver hoard. But after that bulwark, there is little more behind it.  And the consumption is strong for silver in Asia.

The first chart below is one of the most important I can imagine for you to understand.   What it is basically telling us is that the demand for physical bullion from Asia has been overrunning the highly leveraged paper markets of NY and London, having taken all that the scrap and new mining outputs can produce.  And importantly the central banks themselves have turned to net buyers, and are attempting to secure their own sovereign supplies from the whirlpool of hypothecation.

This is resulting in abnormally high leverage in paper claims and a relative scarcity of gold for immediate delivery, as common sense would seem to suggest if we understand what is happening.  And it is.

Speaking of The Bucket Shop, there were very few deliveries tallied yesterday, and a slow bleed of bullion from the warehouses continues.   It looks like JPM is the dominant bullion player in physical silver.  Gold is piling up a bit in Comex Hong Kong.  Marshaling their forces for a big withdrawal most likely.

I am sometimes stunned by how many other sites refuse to even link to this sort of thing, even consider it, even mention it, and by how many are made so insecure at the thought of something different.   This information has been shut out of some of the finest venues, although they usually make up some lame excuse for it.  Or just ridicule it.

Most people do not want to leave their comfortable harbors of the familiar, and put out upon the troubled seas of thought.   That is what these kinds of generational change, the big turnings if you will, are all about.

So the option expiration is over.   Let's see what the follow through, if any, looks like into the weekend and next week.  I am not confident that the field is won, so let's play it a bit tightly for now.

Slowly, but surely, the times, they are a-changin'.

Have a pleasant evening.


Related:  Shrinking Supply of Physical Gold In London For World Demand
               Swiss Refiner: Physical Tightness Reflected in the Price of Gold 'Not At All'










SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Ave! Morituri te salutant


"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage. Intellectual myopia, often called stupidity, is no doubt a reason.

But the privileged also feel that their privileges, however egregious they may seem to others, are a solemn, basic, God-given right. The sensitivity of the poor to injustice is a trivial thing compared with that of the rich."

John Kenneth Galbraith

Stocks came in much lower this morning, roiled by the markets in Asia and Europe overnight.

And Wall Street is still throwing a hissy fit because Janet did not raise interest rates, and I think more importantly because so many other central banks are now cutting rates.

Contrary to popular beliefs promoted by your favorite mainstream media outlet, there is no sustainable economic recovery.

The oligarchs are taking the greatest share of income growth and Fed monetary stimulus for themselves, and their spending patterns tend to be focused in certain high end areas of consumption, and their investment patterns are often predominantly monopolistic and predatory.

And so we have broad wages stagnant, aggregate demand sluggish, but rents outpacing wages, and housing bubbles in the haunts of the moneyed.

This is not a sustainable situation, but I do not yet see what will change our path from it to something more beneficial and just and advantageous for the nation and the people as a whole.

The very rich and the privileged think that they are winning the race with their cleverness and hearts hardened by custom, but in reality they are running away from the fullness of life.  They are empty souls who seek to plug their emptiness with warehouses of material things,  acolytes of the abyss,  the walking dead.

And what is worse, the only real sadness, it that they are willfully blind, blinded to that love which is moving, even now, among us. And that is their best and perhaps only hope.

Winning...

Have a pleasant evening.







Option Expiration Day For Precious Metals on the Comex


On Tuesday I wrote:

"We are going to have an option expiration on the Comex on this Thursday the 24th. I am not expecting it to be a big event, since October is a light contract, with the real attention and action being concentrated in December.

However, there are over one thousand puts at the 1125 strike, so the cynical me might call that good support.

If I were trying to skin the specs and holders of options with shallower pockets, I would take gold down to about 1120ish, suck in more puts and scare the calls out, and then take the price up and skin all those put holders at expiry."

Jesse, Cafe Americain June 22

And so we saw gold push lower, and then rally higher sharply afterwards, especially today.

Fait accompli.

This might be overlooked in the recent posts about the potential shortage of bullion that appears to be occurring, centered on the physical market in London.

Higher prices may provide a cure, but they need to be stable higher prices to free up bullion held in strong hands.

Don't think for a minute that this is a 'square' market now.   The Bucket Shop is in a virtual bullion lockdown and the paper trade is alive and well.

They can expand leverage freely given the craven silence of the regulators and professional courtesy amongst the looting class.

But they cannot create more physical bullion, and therein lies their limits.


Nick Laird: The London Gold Float Is Running Unusually Low


The gold pool is expressing some interesting dynamics that appear to be winding towards a denouement of sorts.

The current trajectory could change if the price is allowed to rise to clear the market, or any number of other seemingly improbable events.

The silver market is also acting very oddly.  I have not gotten a real handle on that, other than soaring premiums for coins and a lack of serioius buying in the US compared to the rest of the world. Similar to gold in some ways, although the central banks have no stockpiles of silver with which to rescue the bullion banks, again.

It is funny but few seem to notice these things, or even care, for whatever reasons that people do not notice something until it is too late to do anything meaningful.

I think that sometimes we can become 'victims of the ordinary.'  When the same thing happens again and again, we expect the same thing to happen next, and any change from this pattern seems almost unimaginable.

"My main focus is to try to bring into context the size of the "London Float" out of the shadows and into the light of day. The London Float being the working supply of gold available to meet the markets daily needs.

One must treat this with the consideration that much of the known gold shown is already owned & not available to meet the markets needs - not unless the owner wants to sell. The presumption being that the Central Banks reserves are not available to the market. They do lease/swap but under their own intent and of late the trend has been to not lend in risky markets but rather to claw back physical into direct ownership.

The years around 2000 were when the Mine Hedge Book was most active with approx 3200 tonnes being lent into the markets by the Central Banks.  By 2007 much of the Hedge Book had been closed out & they were under 1000 tonnes falling under 100 tonnes by 2013. From 2011 gold repatriations of Central Bank reserves started & since then have only grown.

So one presumption from this study is that over time the stance of the Central Banks has been to reduce their lending and bring their gold closer to home. Hence the presumption that the gold held in the Bank of England is mostly all there, unencumbered and released from leasing and swaps. Obviously some will still be lent out but the presumption is that the tonnages lent out are far smaller than in the past...

The UK Imports approx 602 tonnes per year & exports approx 388 tonnes per year (since 1999) according to the EuroStats database (thanks kindly Koos). However with the recent gold demand from Asia these statistics have changed dramatically. Since the start of 2011 the UK has imported 2982 tonnes & exported 3998 tonnes with net exports of 1016 tonnes seeing exports double their normal average to 800 tonnes per year.

This leaves the London Vaults with a FLOAT of between 1361 tonnes and 200 tonnes with the probability that it is closer to the lower number.  If it is closer to 200 tonnes then London does have a problem as a FLOAT of this size is not enough to cover their flows for 4 months."

Read the entire analysis with charts at The London Float.


Related: Shrinking Supply of Available Gold In London For World Demand