12 November 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - How Long? Go Ask Alice


"To know and to serve God, of course, is why we're here, a clear truth, that, like the nose on your face, is near at hand and easily discernible but can make you dizzy if you try to focus on it hard. But a little faith will see you through.

What else will do except faith in such a cynical, corrupt time? When the country goes temporarily to the dogs, cats must learn to be circumspect, walk on fences, sleep in trees, and have faith that all this woofing is not the last word.

What is the last word, then? Gentleness is everywhere in daily life, a sign that faith rules through ordinary things: through cooking and small talk, through storytelling, making love, fishing, tending animals and sweet corn and flowers, through sports, music and books, raising kids — all the places where the gravy soaks in and grace shines through.

Even in a time of elephantine vanity and greed, one never has to look far to see the campfires of gentle people. Lacking any other purpose in life, it would be good enough to live for their sake."

Garrison Keillor

Gold and silver were hit by some of the usual sharp and short selling, but most of the gains were taken back by gold during the afternoon.  For silver, not so much.

As noted intraday in the NAV chart, the gold/silver ratio is  historically high at 75.

It was heartening that gold held the 1080 level despite the attempt to push the metals lower.

There were no bullion deliveries yesterday, and nothing of note occurred in the warehouses of The Bucket Shop.

Note that the USD DX index has fallen for two straight days.

There is some correlation between gold in dollars, and the Swiss franc and Euro in dollars as well.  I show that in the first chart below.

This does not always happen, but sometimes it does.  And I describe this as 'gold trading as a currency.'

This in itself is not a problem per se.  But it does ignore the hard reality that while the central banks may own a printing press, and are most assuredly not afraid to use it, they do not own a gold bullion machine over which they have the kind of discretion which they enjoy with fiat money.

And so we end up with a marketplace choked with leverage and backed by multiply hypothecated, papier-mâché  bullion.

Despite a good show and talk of 'tightening' and pricier risk, it looks like the Banks will be just engaged in the usual antics of the privileged, offshoring in a tag team  currency cage match of the major western currencies and their descent to the bottom of real values.

The reckless short selling, speculation, and derivatives pyramid created by the big trading desks that they encourage may come back to bite them, abyss-wise.

Let's see how that works out for their financial combine. Especially in light of increasing leverage in the face of the massive movement of bullion from West to East.  Record Gold Exports From the UK To China

Accountability.  It's not just for the little people, all the time.

At some point of extreme hubris and irrational excess, a banquet of consequence will be served.

Have a pleasant evening.






SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - The Quantum of the Soulless - Trickle Down Bubble


The economic data continued in weakly this morning, with an oversized number of newly unemployed, and a continuing unemployment number that was higher than expected.  Tra la.

There may be little doubt that the 'trickle down' stimulus that has been bloating the paper assets of the wealthiest few while no progress is being made by all the rest is going to lead to a break point in the current socio-economic equilibrium.  At least, this is what history has proven.

On the right is a chart that shows how the huge increase in corporate debt that has been facilitated by the Fed's easy money AND generous tax breaks, loopholes, and offshore tax havens for the biggest and the wealthiest corporations, has been largely deployed not to build for the future, or pay living wages, but rather to pump up the price of their stocks through buybacks that benefit insiders and the wealthiest few.

But such abuses of policy and regulation can go quite far.  And the further it goes, the more messy the reversion to the mean may be.

So what next for the stock bubble?

It was encouraging that the SP 500 futures stopped precisely on major support.  The NDX futures not so much.  They have not yet reached down to fill the 'gap' that is down around the 4650 mark.  The gap is narrow on the futures, but almost yawning on the cash market.

As for the SP 500, it *could* be forming up a W bottom or a cup and handle, depending on where it stops, and if it rebounds.  I will address that more explicitly if it happens.

But if it does, that is a tip off that the wiseguys have decided that there is room to ramp the stock indices much higher into the close of the year, for a proper yuletide pig fest, for themselves of course.

So let's be patient and see what happens.   I have taken the volatility long and index short off, as it met my short term criteria.  I may have to come back in reluctantly perhaps, but the market will let us know what is unfolding.

And the professional class wonders why the natives are restless.

Have a pleasant evening.





NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


The gold/silver ratio is at an historically high 75.

There were no changes made to address the growing negative cash position at Sprott Silver.  That is something I do not recall seeing before.

CEF is carrying a fairly deep discount, the rest not so much.  Central Gold Trust is benefiting from the Sprott takeover bid.



Central Bank 'Tightening' and Dire Choices - History Looking 'Rhyme-y'


History says, don't hope
On this side of the grave.
But then, once in a lifetime
The longed-for tidal wave
Of justice can rise up,
And hope and history rhyme.

Seamus Heaney

'Raising rates' and 'tightening' looks more like offshoring and a shift change at the central banks' print shop.

Game of Swaps.

And in the second chart, the history of empire is starting to look choiceless and  'rhyme-y.'

Hope and change.  Change was led down a blind alley and strangled, and hope is on a bus out of town.