01 August 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Götterdämmerung - Non-Farm Payrolls Report For July This Friday


William Blake, The Number of the Beast
"Rome has grown so much from its humble beginnings that it is now overwhelmed by its greatness."

Titus Livius


"What we have freed ourselves of, however, is any genuine consciousness of how we might look to others on this globe. Most Americans are probably unaware of how Washington exercises its global hegemony, since so much of this activity takes place either in relative secrecy or under comforting rubrics.

Many may, as a start, find it hard to believe that our place in the world even adds up to an empire. But only when we come to see our country as both profiting from and trapped within the structures of an empire of its own making will it be possible for us to explain many elements of the world that otherwise perplex us."

Chalmers Johnson


"We are imperial, and we are in decline."

Lawrence Wilkerson

There was an entry earlier today here showing the trading ranges this year in gold and silver, and the stunning decline in the US Dollar Index.

The markets are winding for a move.   I am not sure about stocks, but a large decline this fall would not be a surprise.

Greenspan says that stocks are not excessively valued, but that there is a bubble in bonds.   Uh-huh.

If there is a bubble in bonds and it deflates, stocks will be crushed.

Risk is so mispriced in so many ways that is it almost astonishing.

As for gold and silver, the capping this year is obvious.

Let's see if they can maintain it.  They will, until they cannot.

As noted below on the economic calendar, there will be a Non-Farm Payrolls Report on this Friday.

And then we will see a reckoning of risks.

And no one could have seen it coming.

Have a pleasant evening.





Precious Metals Year-To-Date Trading Ranges, And Stunning Decline in the Dollar Index


“If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense.   Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn't.   And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn't be.   And what it wouldn't be, it would.   You see?”

Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass

The Year-To-Date trading range in gold is particularly well-defined, from about 1200 to 1300.

Silver has a less well-defined range, with a secondary declining trend.

The Dollar has just done a swan dive as measured in the DX index.

I would suggest that a breakout in gold will be characterized by a sustained price move above 1300 that manages to hold its ground and advance to take out 1350.

For silver a break above 18.50 would be constructive, although the silver bulls might take *some* encouragement from a successful challenge of the intermediate downtrend which is now around 17.50.

I suspect that the decrease in the value of the Dollar involves a policy move intended to make US exports more competitive, meaning no disrespect to the euro which has been in a corresponding rally based on what, their zombie banking system, or dysfunctional political/economic construct?

Or perhaps it is the reaction of the world to the wild and wacky reign of The Mad Hatter.






31 July 2017

On the Road To Damascus: Faith and Sanctity In Corrupt and Cynical Times


Michelangelo, Paul On the Road to Damascus
“To know and to serve God, of course, is why we’re here, a clear truth, that, like the nose on your face, is near at hand and easily discernible but can make you dizzy if you try to focus on it hard.  But a little faith will see you through.

What else will do except faith in such a cynical, corrupt time?  When the country goes temporarily to the dogs, cats must learn to be circumspect, walk on fences, sleep in trees, and have faith that all this woofing is not the last word.

What is the last word, then?   Gentleness is everywhere in daily life, a sign that faith rules through ordinary things: through cooking and small talk, through storytelling, making love, fishing, tending animals and sweet corn and flowers, through sports, music and books, raising kids — all the places where the gravy soaks in, and grace shines through.   Even in a time of elephantine vanity and greed, one never has to look far to see the campfires of gentle people...

What keeps my faith cheerful is the extreme persistence of gentleness and humour. Lacking any other purpose in life, it would be good enough to live for their sake."

Garrison Keillor

In Hoc Anno Domini
By Vermont C. Royster
December 24, 1949

When Saul of Tarsus set out on his journey to Damascus the whole of the known world lay in bondage. There was one state, and it was Rome. There was one master for it all, and he was Tiberius Caesar.

Everywhere there was civil order, for the arm of the Roman law was long. Everywhere there was stability, in government and in society, for the centurions saw that it was so.

But everywhere there was something else, too. There was oppression -- for those who were not the friends of Tiberius Caesar. There was the tax gatherer to take the grain from the fields and the flax from the spindle to feed the legions or to fill the hungry treasury from which divine Caesar gave largess to the people. There was the impressor to find recruits for the circuses. There were executioners to quiet those whom the Emperor proscribed. What was a man for but to serve Caesar?

There was the persecution of men who dared think differently, who heard strange voices or read strange manuscripts. There was enslavement of men whose tribes came not from Rome, disdain for those who did not have the familiar visage. And most of all, there was everywhere a contempt for human life. What, to the strong, was one man more or less in a crowded world?

Then, of a sudden, there was a light in the world, and a man from Galilee saying, Render unto Caesar the things which are Caesar's and unto God the things that are God's.

And the voice from Galilee, which would defy Caesar, offered a new Kingdom in which each man could walk upright and bow to none but his God. Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me. And he sent this gospel of the Kingdom of Man into the uttermost ends of the earth.

So the light came into the world and the men who lived in darkness were afraid, and they tried to lower a curtain so that man would still believe salvation lay with the leaders.

But it came to pass for a while in divers places that the truth did set man free, although the men of darkness were offended and they tried to put out the light. The voice said, Haste ye. Walk while you have the light, lest darkness come upon you, for he that walketh in darkness knoweth not whither he goeth.

Along the road to Damascus the light shone brightly. But afterward Paul of Tarsus, too, was sore afraid.  He feared that other Caesars, other prophets, might one day persuade men that man was nothing save a servant unto them, that men might yield up their birthright from God for pottage and walk no more in freedom.

Then might it come to pass that darkness would settle again over the lands and there would be a burning of books and men would think only of what they should eat and what they should wear, and would give heed only to new Caesars and to false prophets.  Then might it come to pass that men would not look upward to see even a winter's star in the East, and once more, there would be no light at all in the darkness.

And so Paul, the apostle of the Son of Man, spoke to his brethren, the Galatians, the words he would have us remember afterward in each of the years of his Lord:

Stand fast therefore in the liberty with which Christ has made us free, and be not entangled again with the yoke of bondage.

"Caesar was swimming in blood.    Rome and the whole pagan world was mad.  But those who had had enough of transgression and madness, those who were trampled upon, those whose lives were misery and oppression, all the weighed down, all the sad, all the unfortunate, came to hear the wonderful tidings of God, who out of love for men had given Himself to be crucified and redeem their sins.

When they found a God whom they could love, they had found that which the society of the time could not give any one—  happiness and love."

Henryk Sienkiewicz, Quo Vadis: In the Time of Nero





30 July 2017

Weekend Reading - The Leaven of the Pharisees


"Beware the leaven of the Pharisees, which is a pious, hollow hypocrisy."

Luke 12:1


“Woe to you, scribes and Pharisees— hypocrites!   For you are like whitewashed tombs which appear beautiful, but inside are full of dead men’s bones and all uncleanness. You outwardly appear righteous, but inside you are full of hypocrisy and lawlessness."

Matthew 23:27-28


"Why do you dwell on the splinter in your brother's eye, while failing to see the plank in your own?"

Luke 6:41

Ironically enough and as I have previously noted, I find myself more concerned these days not with those among my acquaintances that are unbelievers, although I do remember them all in my prayers. Each must find their own way in God's good time.

Rather, my concern is with my believing friends who, in their zeal for righteousness, fall prey into the trap of judging all others, and harshly.   Indeed, the destructiveness of their judgement extends not only to those whom they perceive to be in the most rigorous sense sinful, but to all others who differ from them, in almost any way, even to the most trivial details of rituals and observances.

And they justify the harsh distortion of their judgement not as a sin against the Spirit, but as a superior zeal for reform, purer than all others.    And finally it extends as a general anger to their own fellows, their own brothers and sisters, and to the very body of Christ on earth.

This is the leaven of the Pharisees. And the only safeguard against it is love. Not a love of the rituals and 'the Sabbath,' but of those imperfect creatures like themselves for whom the Sabbath was given.

The first sin is pride, and there is no form of it that is more toxic and destructive than a spiritual pride, contemptuous of the Spirit and all of its workings on the earth, which is love.   For pride comes to despise love as a weakness, and turns on it, and hardens the heart and the mind against it.

If you have less love and less forgiveness in your heart, and more harsh words and judgments, with a pessimistic and dour outlook even to the abundant graces and mercies of God and his messengers, I tell you truly that you may be in more peril than you can imagine.    You have been blinded to your own danger through the distraction of condemning others.

Look to your own sinfulness first, and beg God to show you all of your sins now, so fully and completely that you fall down in repentance, and have no time for judging others as you see them.

Judgement of others is a way of deflecting and avoiding a recognition of our own sinful nature.  It can be intoxicating to set oneself up as the Lord, and to pass out judgement without mercy and understanding.   But it is the way of darkness and death.

You were not put on this earth to judge others.  And so as you judge, so shall you be judged

"Surely, there is at this day a confederacy of evil, marshalling its hosts from all parts of the world, organizing itself, taking its measures, enclosing the Church of Christ as in a net, and preparing the way for a general Apostasy from it. Whether this very Apostasy is to give birth to Antichrist, or whether he is still to be delayed, as he has already been delayed so long, we cannot know; but at any rate this Apostasy, and all its tokens and instruments, are of the Evil One, and savour of death.

Far be it from any of us to be of those simple ones who are taken in that snare which is circling around us! Far be it from us to be seduced with the fair promises in which Satan is sure to hide his poison!

Do you think he is so unskilful in his craft, as to ask you openly and plainly to join him in his warfare against the Truth? No; he offers you baits to tempt you. He promises you civil liberty; he promises you equality; he promises you trade and wealth; he promises you a remission of taxes; he promises you reform.

This is the way in which he conceals from you the kind of work to which he is putting you; he tempts you to rail against your rulers and superiors; he does so himself, and induces you to imitate him; or he promises you illumination, he offers you knowledge, science, philosophy, enlargement of mind.

He scoffs at times gone by; he scoffs at every institution which reveres them. He prompts you what to say, and then listens to you, and praises you, and encourages you. He bids you mount aloft. He shows you how to become as gods.

Then he laughs and jokes with you, and gets intimate with you; he takes your hand, and gets his fingers between yours, and grasps them, and then you are his."

J.H.Newman, The Times of AntiChrist, 1890