Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Downward Spiral of Dumbness - FOMC and Non-Farm Payrolls Next Week

“I know not why any one but a schoolboy in his declamation should whine over the Commonwealth of Rome, which grew great only by the misery of the rest of mankind. The Romans, like others, as soon as they grew rich, grew corrupt; and in their corruption sold the lives and freedoms of themselves, and of one another.”

Samuel Johnson


"This empire, unlike any other in the history of the world, has been built primarily through economic manipulation, through cheating, through fraud, through seducing people into our way of life, through the economic hit men."

John Perkins


"A nation can be one or the other, a democracy or an imperialist, but it can’t be both. If it sticks to imperialism, it will, like the old Roman Republic, on which so much of our system was modeled, lose its democracy to a domestic dictatorship...Once you go down the path of empire, you inevitably start a process of overstretch, of tendencies toward bankruptcy, and, in the rest of the world, a tendency toward the uniting of people who are opposed to your imperialism simply on grounds that it’s yours, but maybe also on the grounds that you’re incompetent at it.

It is time to realize, however, that the real dangers to America today come not from the newly rich people of East Asia but from our own ideological rigidity, our deep-seated belief in our own propaganda."

Chalmers Johnson

Stocks were wobbly today but not dramatically so.

Gold and silver managed to take a little back from their recent losses as the Dollar backed off sharply from its intraday high.

There will be an FOMC meeting next week. There is about a 35% probability of a rate hike at this meeting. We will have to watch the early economic data in the week, especially the PCE, to see if that probability might move a bit.

And on Friday there will be the April Non-Farm Payrolls Report.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Here Come the Big Cap Tech Numbers - King Dollar

"Rising prices and collapsing confidence could portend that both inflation and slowing growth are looming, a sure recipe for stagflation."

Bloomberg, Markets Better Prepare For Stagflation


"Are you satisfied?"

James Butler Hickok, after the shootout with Davis Tutt 

If the US does fall into stagflation then it is clearly a time for systemic change in our decision and policy making, and the mass turnover of the old leadership and their elites.

Stagflation is a policy error de luxe, when not precipitated by a major exogenous supply shock like the oil embargo of the 1970s. Up until that point most economists did not even believe that stagflation was possible. 

It takes an extraordinary combination of almost purposefully bad decisions to create stagflation from within the policy choices of the economic system itself. Something like strangling economic demand by severely curbing income growth for the broad public while generously supplying easy money and selective asset inflation to the top one percent over a period of years might do it.

And it is a hell for the working public, that sees their income opportunities continue to stagnate while the prices of essentials continue to increase.

Alas, if there is stagflation I am sure the credibility trap will compel the propeller heads and their paymasters to find some scapegoat, or some elite friendly cause like a 'global trade war,' to carry the blame, rather than their own distorted, self-serving decision making.

I am posting the charts shortly after the close. I will most likely have to update them tomorrow.

Big cap tech is coming out after the bell, with Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel reporting their numbers. And the reaction so far in the stock futures has been 'enthusiastic' to say the least.

Gold and silver were off again today on further US Dollar strength. The lack of activity in the Comex gold warehouses, including Hong Kong, is remarkable.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Precious Metals Options Expiration - Le Voilà

Stocks were on another wild ride today, as earnings are coming in well thanks to the big tax cut for corporations, but going forward growth is hard to justify.

A lack of organic growth in the non-subsidized economy may be discouraging organic demand.

The upward redistribution of wealth continues to suck the very life out of the real economy.  Never was so much owed by so few to so many.

Gold and silver were off a bit on the expiration as the Dollar, or is it King Dollar, rallied back to a short term high.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Drawn to You - Comex Expiry Tomorrow

“In a room where people unanimously maintain a conspiracy of silence, one word of truth sounds like a pistol shot.”

Czesław Miłosz


"The world of finance is a mysterious world in which, incredible as the fact may appear, evaporation precedes liquidation. First the capital evaporates, and then the company goes into liquidation."

Joseph Conrad


“Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set him on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.”

Terry Pratchett

There is a profound, existential difference between the economy of the Devil and the economy of God.   It is not that we don't know the difference, as the rules have been laid down simply, frequently, and unequivocally.   It is just inconvenient to a certain type of perverse individualism.

The economy of God requires one to set aside themselves as the first priority, and their personal lust for money and power, and serve something greater— God and our fellows for His sake. 

This does not appeal to the underdeveloped or malformed who are not able to see beyond their own immediate needs, and those that beyond that, all things considered, would be as gods, and therefore will not serve.  Non serviam.

Stocks took a real tumble today.   Caterpillar announced its first quarter results which were quite good.  But on the conference call the CFO said that 'this is as good as it gets for 2018.'

And that sent US equities, which had been somewhat wobbly because of the climbing 10Yr yield, into a swoon.

The US Dollar fell off a bit from its recent highs, which helped to put a bid back under gold and silver.

As I have previously mentioned, the precious metals are trading primarily as an abstract instrument of value, like a fiat currency.   Little regard is being given to their nature as commodities.  This is more true for gold than for silver, because of the latter's significant industrial component.

Tomorrow will be the April Options Expiration for the precious metals on the Comex.

I expect the markets to continue to be volatile, moreso than the past twelve months or so.  This is because this Trump rally is built on an unsustainable foundation of lies and mispricings of risk.

At some point I believe that we will see a much more significant correction in stocks.  And then we will see what, and who, is left standing.

Have a pleasant evening.