09 January 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Bumpy Road Ahead - Prepare for Shocks


I get the definite sense from the tape of the SP 500 futures trading that stocks are being slowly and carefully 'walked higher' from the recent lows.

This could be effective as long as the markets remain relatively quiet and no exogenous macro events intrude.

So from the bearish standpoint, now is a time to stand aside and wait for this to play itself out. It is not likely to be sustainable, but in the short run it is folly to fight the Plunge Protection Team.  They are, after all, playing against you with your own money.

An interesting mix of Wall Street denizens, from felons to High Frequency traders to mom and pop retail firms are looking to start a new stock exchange to rival the NYSE.  Here is what Wall Street On Parade has to say about it: Wall Street Felon and High Frequency Traders Announce Plan to Form Stock Exchange.

Gold and silver moved higher today on the back of a weaker Dollar. 

Trumpolini's address to the nation last night was toothless and odd.  He seems to be running a little short, on what exactly I am not quite sure.   His meeting with his equally unattractive political counterparts, Schumer and Pelosi, was exceptionally fruitless and juvenile.

Life imitates high school.

The Uber and Lyft IPOs seem to be stalled by the government shutdown.   There is a window for these pigs to attempt to fly, and it may be closing quickly if they do not hurry themselves along.

Brexit is a risk factor that seems to be underweighted for now. We'll know how that may play out in about eighty days or less.

I have a bad feeling about this year. Maybe it is just the after effects of this wretched cold, but I am concerned now in a way that I have not been before.

Have a pleasant evening.



08 January 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Risk On Again - Distractions from the Real Problems and Issues


"On April 3, Nina Dang, 24, found herself in a position like so many San Francisco bike riders — on the pavement with a broken arm.

A bystander saw her fall and called an ambulance. She was semi-lucid for that ride, awake but unable to answer basic questions about where she lived. Paramedics took her to the emergency room at Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital, where doctors X-rayed her arm and took a CT scan of her brain and spine. She left with her arm in a splint, on pain medication, and with a recommendation to follow up with an orthopedist.

A few months later, Dang got a bill for $24,074.50. Premera Blue Cross, her health insurer, would only cover $3,830.79 of that — an amount that it thought was fair for the services provided. That left Dang with $20,243.71 to pay, which the hospital threatened to send to collections in mid-December..."

Sarah Kliff,  A $20,243 bike crash: Zuckerberg hospital’s aggressive tactics leave patients with big bills


"Monopolies hurt the public and the republic alike; the job of policing that power must be taken seriously."

Elizabeth Warren


“I can strongly recommend Jonathan Tepper’s The Myth of Capitalism, opening our minds to see the steep decline in competition in America in recent years and the growing concentration of economic power in fewer and fewer hands, in oligarchies with similarities to those in Russia and China.”

Dr. Harald Malmgren

Within so many of the corporate dominant monopolies like Healthcare, Banking, Pharmaceuticals, some companies seem to be free to do just about whatever they can get away with.   Do we really need more examples of this at this late date?

Healthcare in the US is bordering on insane when it comes to billing practises and the lack of practical recourse or common sense, with Big Pharma running a close second.  But the Banks are not all that far behind, and despite some setbacks after the last financial crisis seem to be regaining ground.

I have met many, many dedicated professionals in the healthcare industry.  But like most participants they are just being swept along because they have little practical recourse or power. To speak up is to be punished, and severely.

And others just view it as the rules of the game, orders from above, and go about their jobs with dispassionate detachment.

For the most part what we are talking about here does not involve individual doctors and their family practices.   These tend to be fairly straightforward.  And it seems like a dying breed.

What we are talking about here is the monopoly healthcare complex, in which large corporations buy up hospitals and groups of specialist physicians' practices and form massive organizations with significant economic and political power.

The opportunity for abuse in such situations is a fact of human nature despite the Utopian fantasies which some adhere to about perfect competition without rules and regulations.  The result is not a balanced market economy, but oligarchies and monopolies.

A simple law that states that when a patient is brought into a hospital emergency room for treatment, their private insurance and the treatments must be provided at the network rates in their insurance policy, or at the prevailing rate for a Medicare patient, whichever is lower.  And any uncollectible services to be written off or compensated by government will be done at the Medicare rate and not at some fictionalized billing statement that is part of a negotiating game between corporate monopolies.

I believe that New York State has a law requiring ER Hospitals and doctors to accept private insurance for patients as if they are in-network.  This includes those 'consultations' which happen during a hospital stay by doctors who accept no insurance and who charge whatever they feel that they can get away with charging for some service, of which provider or price the patient is never informed beforehand.

Those prices are quite often ten times the going rate, based on the principle that the reimbursement by the insurance company will be about ten percent of the charge.  But you can see what happens when the hospital and insurance company don't come together as in the case above.

There are plenty of phony explanations and just plain falsehoods wrapped around this, the two prevailing that hospitals charge 10x what they expect to get, or the high prices are just there for 'gold plated' plans carried by executives.

As the story above shows, this is just not true. The abuses are there and they catch real people and turn them into statistics, every day.

This is no way to run a healthcare system. It is not, and no other major country does it this way.

The real solution is most likely some form of universal healthcare system, which has been implemented for years by every major developed nation but the US.   There is room for improvement as I have suggested above. This exists now to some extent in the medical devices and ancillary services, whereing pricing has been brought more into line by Medicare and other regulation. But it is just scratching at the surface.

Here is another example of why our prescription drugs cost so much. Trump said he was going to change this and allow the government to negotiate drug prices. What has happened to that?

This will not happen for the same reason that we are seeing no movement towards meaningful reform in Pharma or Banking. And you know exactly why, unless you have been living in a bubble or are willfully blinded by greed.

You may not think that this applies to you, or that this is not true.  But some day you might stumble into the hard truth of how things really are, suddenly become a statistic, and then you will know.  I sincerely hope that you do not.

I would also like to make it clear that Mark Zuckerberg does not own this hospital, or run it in any way to my knowledge. His name is associated with it because he gave them a $75 million donation, which is what billionaires do. They make huge donations to hospitals and universities to have their names attached to them. But it is not fair at all to judge him for their actions.

Stocks managed to extend their rally today despite some setbacks.

We will see what Trumpolini has to say about our 'crisis' at the southern border this evening, and the trade war, and probably whatever else crosses his mind. My only certainly is that it will not involve any meaningful reform in healthcare, finance, insurance, or pharmaceuticals.

Have a pleasant evening.


07 January 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Risk On - Epiphany


"I can strongly recommend Jonathan Tepper's The Myth of Capitalism, opening our minds to see the steep decline in competition in America in recent years and the growing concentration of economic power in fewer and fewer hands, in oligarchies with similarities to those in Russia and China."

Dr. Harald Malmgren


"The problem with movies and books is they make evil look glamorous, exciting, when it's no such thing.   It's boring and it's depressing and it's stupid.  Criminals are all after cheap thrills and easy money, and when they get them, all they want is more of the same, over and over. 

They're shallow, empty, boring people who couldn't give you five minutes of interesting conversation if you had the poor luck to be at a party full of them.  Maybe some can be monkey-clever, some of the time, but they aren't hardly ever smart."

Dean Koontz


"And each of you this morning in some way is building some kind of temple. The struggle is always there. It gets discouraging sometimes. It gets very disenchanting sometimes. Some of us are trying to build a temple of peace. We speak out against war, we protest, but it seems that your head is going against a concrete wall. It seems to mean nothing. And so often as you set out to build the temple of peace you are left lonesome; you are left discouraged; you are left bewildered.

Well, that is the story of life. And the thing that makes me happy is that I can hear a voice crying through the vista of time, saying: "It may not come today or it may not come tomorrow, but it is well that it is within thine heart. It’s well that you are trying." You may not see it. The dream may not be fulfilled, but it’s just good that you have a desire to bring it into reality. It’s well that it’s in thine heart.

Thank God this morning that we do have hearts to put something meaningful in...

And this brings me to the basic point of the text. In the final analysis, God does not judge us by the separate incidents or the separate mistakes that we make, but by the total bent of our lives. In the final analysis, God knows that his children are weak and they are frail. In the final analysis, what God requires is that your heart is right. Salvation isn’t reaching the destination of absolute morality, but it’s being in the process and on the right road."

Martin Luther King

It was 'risk on' today, although the risk impulse seemed a bit subdued at least compared to the rip snorting rally sparked by that wonder of a Jobs Report.

Stocks did finish off their highs, but managed to extend the rebound a little closer to the fifty percent Fibonacci retracement level.

Almost half the companies who have come out with revisions to fourth quarter results have lowered guidance.

The US Dollar slid a bit lower, and gold managed to regain some of the ground that it lost in the big risk on extravaganza last week.  Silver was flat.

Gold is holding on to what looks like a breakout from trend.  Let us see if this continues.

The bubbles in housing and financial assets seem to be a bit fragile.  Everywhere we are seeing the mood in the housing market growing cooler.

The number of unsustainable things are beginning to weigh on those titans of finance at the Central Banks.   As the fraud effect weakens, the amount of force required to maintain the illusion of a fiat economy must increase.

We will be getting less US economic data this week because of the continuing closure of certain portions of the government.   The impasse is largely driven by egos, and the polarization of the extremes in perspective between the two established political crime families.

And so we have a New Year, with much of the same.

Need little, want less, and love more.  For the Lord has created you, and redeemed you, because He desired you to be—  with a perfect knowledge of who you are as He made you. So abide in His love, and in the light, and do not allow the hate and the darkness of the world to claim you, and take you away.

That, in the end, is the only real tragedy.

Have a pleasant evening.












06 January 2019

Flows of Physical Gold and Silver In Trusts and Funds


Interestingly the recent trends have reversed.

Physical silver is now flowing out of the trusts and funds, while gold is coming back in, and rather quickly.