Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Slip Sliding Away Into MMT - Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

"We are warned against sharing in her sins and in her punishment;—against being found, when the end comes, mere children of this world and of its great cities; with tastes, opinions, habits, such as are found in its cities; with a heart dependent on human society, and a reason moulded by it;—against finding ourselves at the last day, before our Judge, with all the low feelings, principles, and aims which the world encourages; with our thoughts wandering, wandering after vanities; with thoughts which rise no higher than the consideration of our own comforts, or our gains; an admiration of the splendour and the fashions of the world, an affectation of refinement, an habitual self-esteem, and an utter ignorance of the number and the heinousness of the sins which lie against us."

John Henry Newman, The City of Antichrist


"It would be no sin if statesmen learned enough of history to realize that no system which implies control of society by privilege seekers has ever ended in any other way than collapse."

William Dodd, US Ambassador to Germany, 1933


"I was in Moscow doing business when the rouble was dying after the collapse of the Soviet Empire [and with the collapse of that political force, the failure of the state dictated exchange rates for their currency].  It made a lasting impression."

Jesse 2010

A value-dictated, purely fiat, currency exists through force and fraud. As the fraud grows thin and obvious, the greater and more pervasive the force must become. If imports are needed, wars of aggression will follow to extend and maintain the 'sphere of influence', a euphemism for control. When force finally falters, the currency collapses. A value-dictated, purely fiat currency is not an innovation— it is among the oldest forms of tyranny.

MMT is the Scientology of economics.

Stocks failed in their rally attempt.  Tomorrow is another day.

Gold and silver managed to find their footing.  They'll need to hang in there.

Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Gold Chart Potential Cup and Handle

“Everything passes, only truth remains.”

Fyodor Dostoyevsky, The Brothers Karamazov

Crash Signatures

If you have been a long term reader here you know that I have something called a 'Crash Signature.'

One of the key components of this is a significant decline from a new all time high, that rallies substantially so that the fear subsides and most believe there is a return to 'normal' bubble conditions.

Unfortunately, IF this is a rally that fails, in that it fails to set a new high, but tops out and then falls sharply again, we have a higher potential of a crash in which confidence is shattered and a new lower low is set.

I have a correspondent in France who also does trend tracking such as this. While I have normally been using a composite model of several crashes from US market history (1929, 1974, 1987, 2001, 2008) he is concentrating lately on a comparison to the year of 1937.

It should be noted that the 'crash' of 1937 pales in comparison to the Crash of 1929. And it was largely caused by an egregious policy error by the Fed.

If you look at it carefully it does follow the 'crash signature.'

Here is the latest chart which he has sent to me. I think if we fail once again to take out 'The Wall' on my SP 500 chart, and drop to a lower low, there will be a higher than normal probability of a 'crash.'

Although I have to add that we are in the days of organized support, and mobilization of the entire country's money mechanisms, to support stock prices for the benefit of their primary constituents.

The next few months could be memorable.

David Cay Johnston on the Crony Capitalism, and Part 2 on Plans for Funding For Your Old Age

"A pension is not a 'gratuity.'  A pension is wages you could have taken in cash, but prudently and conservatively set aside for your old age.   It's your money.  If your employer, for every pay period, does not set aside and designate it to go into a pension plan, your employer is stealing from you. The way to get this is to require pay stubs to itemize the amount of money that has been contributed to your pension plan."

David Cay Johnston


“Capitalism is at risk of failing today not because we are running out of innovations, or because markets are failing to inspire private actions, but because we’ve lost sight of the operational failings of unfettered gluttony. We are neglecting a torrent of market failures in infrastructure, finance, and the environment. We are turning our backs on a grotesque worsening of income inequality and willfully continuing to slash social benefits. We are destroying the Earth as if we are indeed the last generation.”

Jeffrey Sachs


"We are coming apart as a society, and inequality is right at the core of that.  When the 90 percent are getting worse off and they’re trying to figure out what happened, they’re not people like me who get to spend four or five hours a day studying these things and then writing about them — they’re people who have to make a living and get through life.  And they’re going to be swayed by demagogues and filled with fear about the other, rather than bringing us together.

President Theodore Roosevelt said we shall all rise together or we shall all fall together, and we need to have an appreciation of that.

I think it would be easy for someone to arrive in the near future and really create forces that would lead to trouble in this country. And you see people who, they’re not the leaders to pull it off, but we have suggestions that the president should be killed, that he’s not an American, that Texas can secede, that states can ignore federal law, and these are things that don’t lack for antecedents in America history but they’re clearly on the rise.

In addition to that, we have this large, very well-funded news organization that is premised on misconstruing facts and telling lies, Faux News that is creating, in a large segment of the population — somewhere around one-fifth and one-fourth of it — belief in all sorts of things that are detrimental to our well-being.

So, no, I don’t see this happening tomorrow, but I have said for many years that if we don’t get a handle on this then one of these days our descendants are going to sit down in high-school history class and open a textbook that begins with the words: The United States of America was … and then it will dissect how our experiment in self-governance came apart."

David Cay Johnston, May 2014