Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Game's Afoot - Gold Breaks 1350 - China Trade Looms

The Fed did as expected today.

While they did not cut interest rates, they did make the appropriately dovish sounding noises.

And dot plots, yada yada.

So gold and silver moved higher, stocks not so much, and the dollar dropped.

I had my eye on stocks in the afternoon since gold had obviously decided that 1350 was going down. 1350 is now support. Gold must hold 1340 to continue making the cup and handle active.

Target for the cup and handle is $1530.  The short term objective is $1370 as has been marked on the chart for some time.

There is a stock market option expiration on Friday.

Stocks are going to be watching the macro global economy, specifically through the lens of the US-China trade situation.

Let's see what the stock market does tomorrow after a night to think about things.  I did not make a move in stocks today.  The metals are a nice long to keep riding for now as long as they can make it through any backfilling and retests.

On the situation chart below scenarios 1 & 2 are now the most probable.  Can you tell which way I was leaning?   We still have to see what happens with China next weekend in Osaka.

The metals went out on the highs of the day, so we know pretty much what the market thought about it.

The usual suspects may attempt to try capping it again at some new level, perhaps a bit higher or lower from here.  Next resistance is at 1370 and then around 1400-1410.  I put my thoughts on the charts as always.

Grab some popcorn. This will be interesting to watch.

And throughout all this bear in mind what is most important, the three great gifts that give us life: repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - And Away We Go - Rate Cuts, Trade Talks, and an Option Expiration

The rest of this week and some of the next should be rather exciting, and volatile in the markets.

Tomorrow we have the much anticipated FOMC decision.

I tend to doubt that they will actually give the markets a rate cut tomorrow.

It is possible but not probable. And an actual cut might spook the markets.

Rather it is more likely we will see some sort of verbage like the ECB's Draghi gave the markets about being willing to feed them the rate cut sugar they crave.

This was enough to ignite the US risk markets today.

In addition there were seom 'encouraging' words about the G20 meeting and China trade talks. That really put a spark under bully.

The actual G20 meeting in Osaka is not until late next week, so there will be little more than speculative leaks until then perhaps.

The scenarios for the resolution of these big macro events is in a nice little chart right below.

Today was a taste of number 2.

As a reminder, there is also a stock option expiration on Friday.

I have been thinking of various ways of playing this, other than having a gold long trading position I have had for some time since the price of gold in dollars turned up and broke out of the descending triangle.

The bond and equity markets, along with several important indicators, are suggesting that there is a significant mismatch in the pricing of risks.

My money is on the bond markets. The equity market has become dominated by carnies, con men, and snake oil peddlers.

I have been watching youtube videos today, by a guy named Andrew Camarata, who is a 'property maintenance manager' in upstate NY near some places where we used to go, for used and antiquarian books in Woodstock, and a garlic festival in Saugerties.

He has an amazing array of equipment which he maintains himself.  He has skills, and I find his whole approach to things very similar to my own.  He would be a great friend and neighbor.

Need little, want less, love more.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts

Just charts tonight.

Dolly and I are taking a vacation day.

The markets are waiting for the FOMC decision on Wednesday.

Have a pleasant evening.

Physical Gold Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange and The New Silk Road

"Time is coming when markets search frantically for physical collateral to find that paper far exceeds underlying collateral for several metals and other resources.    I am warning that when markets fall in sustained negative response to bursting bubbles, widespread deleveraging will reveal insufficient hard collateral underlying traded asset-backed securities.  The words rehypothecation and hyper-rehypothecation may be rediscovered or remembered again, forgotten somehow during much of decade since the Great Financial Crisis."

Harald Malmgren


"Gold has 'worked' down from Alexander's time.  When something holds good for two thousand years I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory."  

Bernard M. Baruch

One might wonder why these countries are steadily acquiring such enormous inventories of gold bullion.

And they might even notice that since around 2008 the central banks of the world have become net buyers of gold, after many years of managed selling.

Gold is flowing from West to East, and into strong hands and official vaults as security against a changing monetary landscape.  And except for the occasional use of subtrefuge and force, it will not return to the public markets anywhere near to these current valuations.