Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - History Lesson

Wall Street's finest discuss forming a 'stock exchange' under a nearby buttonwood tree

Stocks today came in lower, as the euphoria of risk-offishness from yesterday wore off rather quickly, after the bell as a matter of fact, as some new era darlings laid an earnings egg.

And this morning the appetite for chasing bubbling assets with hot money was cooled even moreso by an intemperate statement (what a surprise) from Trump regarding his indifference to his fellows meeting with the Chinese in September to discuss a resolution to the ongoing trade war.

But fortunately once the Europeans went home to say hello to the wife and kids and have dinner, the denizens of Wall Street managed to walk the stock indices back up towards nearly unchanged, as they are often wont to do when they have the opportunity.

And the usual suspects among the advisors in the White House were reassuring that, again no surprise, Trump did not really mean to say when he in fact said, in writing.

And so we had a bit of a risk-aversion hiatus, and the usual safe havens like gold, the Dollar, and the bonds faded a bit, and stocks were bought.

But there is a definite lack of whole hearted confidence in any of this trading, and cynically mechanical, so that time of positions being held must be down to milliseconds rather than a more judicious few hours or so.

So what does this mean?

It implies that, at least for now, the markets in the US will remain exceptionally fluid, which is a nice way of saying skittish and prone to event driven volatility.

If this up-and-down roller coaster continues on for the remainder of the summer, I would not be surprised if it does not shake itself apart before the winter.

Those of you who recognized the subtitle above, History Lesson, was a nod to the famous science fiction story by Arthur C. Clarke ought to be congratulated.  And those select few who recall the moral of the story itself can very well accept it as an analogy for understanding the stock markets and economic models of today.

And those who do not are invited to watch a brief illustrative video included below.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant weekend.

History Lesson from DD on Vimeo.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Shadows Lengthen - Götterdämmerung

“But you can't make people listen.  They have to come round in their own time, wondering what happened and why the world blew up around them.”

Ray Bradbury, Fahrenheit 451


“The masses had reached the point where they would, at the same time, believe everything and nothing, think that everything was possible and that nothing was true.  Mass propaganda discovered that its audience was ready at all times to believe the worst, no matter how absurd, and did not particularly object to being deceived because it held every statement to be a lie anyhow.”

Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism


Totalitarian regimes energize their base and forge national unity by emphasizing an us vs. them mentality—  If only there weren't  [Jews, immigrants, Muslims, blacks, homosexuals] our country would achieve its intended prosperity."

Christopher Lebron, What Totalitarianism Looks Like

After the bell Uber put forward a massive loss, as was expected. But they also missed on the topline revenues which was far less excusable.

Uber missed. How poetic is that?

Stocks were in massive rally mode, as the recent realizations of mispriced risks were dismissed.

Fear was cast aside by greed. Wash and rinse.

The volatility surprises some.

How else could it be, when all standards and measurements of objectivity have been cast aside in an overwhelming tide of willfulness?

Whatever we say, goes.

Gold snapped back in the late afternoon, and retook the 1500 handle.

Silver held on to the 17 handle.

Mortgage refi activity is skyrocketing thanks to the recent plunge in interest rates.

This appears like a setup for a major, bone shattering correction.

 History would suggest the early fall, but last year it came in December.

Timing this sort of break in overconfidence and reckless disregard for risk is notoriously difficult, even in ordinary circumstances.

Nothing is certain in the time of madness and the raw love of power unleashed.

Trump himself says he is one thing, and then another, at complete opposites to each other. Without even the blink of an eye or the slightest hint of a blush.

It is a behaviour that is being widely imitated.  It is a sign of the times.

There is little accountability, the slightest of consequence if any, and certainly no shame.

It is not only profitable, it has become highly fashionable.  A mark of talent, a class distinction.

For they would be as gods, beyond good and evil.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Plunge Protection /on - The Precious Metals Break Out

"It begins with a highly complex financial system, whose very complexity makes it difficult for anyone to know what might be going wrong; by definition, the multiple parts of the financial system are linked, which means that trouble in one institution, city, or region can travel easily and quickly to others.

Buoyant growth in the economy makes the financials system more fragile, in part due to the demand for capital and in part due to the tendency of some institutions to take on more risk than is prudent.

Leaders in government and the financials sector implement policies that advertently or inadvertently increase the exposure to risk of crisis.

An economic shock hits the financials system. The mood of the market swings from optimism to pessimism, create a self-reinforcing downward spiral."

Robert Bruner and Sean Carr, The Panic of 1907

Stock market crashes are not often 'expected' by the very important people. But it seems to me that they are often richly deserved.

Gold and silver both broke out, somewhat decisively, today.

Gold took out 1490 like it was standing still, and went on to 1511, before finally settling back to close at 1496.

This has been an almost non-stop run higher since gold broke up from the coil of its symmetrical triangle. I have included a last look at the three alternative chart formations for this coiling action below.

Silver was a powerhouse this week, smacking through the resistance at $17 and holding it into the close.

Stocks were clobbered again today, giving up quite a bit of yesterday's relief rally.

After the European markets closed Wall Street, and its champions in DC no doubt, were able to turn the major stock indices around and even eked out a green close.

And there was joy among the spokemodels, as their faith in the market was once again renewed.

But there was a hint of cautious fear, even as they declared a 'capitulation bottom.'

If that was a capitulation bottom then I am Tom Bombadil. It may have been a bottom, or not, but it was a cold and passionless thing.

 Can US sovereign rates go nominally negative?   It is not such an absurd notion as it might have been even last month.

So what next?

What next indeed.

The underpinnings of these markets are weak and shaky, and will remain inclined to rise on technical trading, and fall sharply on raw reality.

And watch your twitter feed for news.

"A common feature of all these earlier troubles [panics such as 1907 and 1914] was that having happened they were over. The worst was reasonably recognizable as such.

The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning.

Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost.

The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. (Not only were a recorded 12,894,650 shares sold on 24 October; precisely the same number were bought.) The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall.

Even the man who waited out all of October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value drop to a third or a fourth of the purchase price in the next twenty-four months.

The Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable."

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Walking Dead - A Relief Rally

"I urge you, brothers and sisters, to be wary of those who cause divisions and undermine the faithful, in opposition to the teaching that you have learned.  Avoid them.   For such people do not serve our Lord, but their own appetites and desires.  And by clever words and flattery they deceive the hearts of many of the innocent and easily led."

Romans 16:17-18


"Dividers speak evil about things that are different, 'the other,' or that which they do not understand.  Like instinctive animals, they follow wherever their passions lead them, and so they bring about their destruction.   What sorrow awaits them.  For they follow in the footsteps of Cain, who killed his own brother.  Like Balaam, they deceive other people for money."

Jude 1:10


"Do you not know that to whom you give yourselves as servants, his servants you become, whether of a corruption unto death, or of a righteousness unto life?"

Romans 6:16


"I see dead people. Walking around like regular people. They don't see each other. They only see what they want to see. They don't know that they're dead."

Cole Sear, The Sixth Sense

Stocks bounced back a bit today, after slumping badly in the overnight as Trump named China as a currency manipulator.

But in the quiet hours they managed to turn the SP 500 futures higher, and today we saw a bit of a short squeeze.

Gold held its gains remarkably, even in the face of a stronger dollar.

In the news today we see that UBS is starting to charge storage fees for cash.  This speaks volumes about the direction of fiat money.

The case for gold gets stronger and stronger.

Also in the news is the steep decline in Chinese capital fleeing the mainland, and finding a haven in the real estate markets of Canada and the US.

Rick and Ilsa will always have Paris.  Those seeking boltholes for their hot money will always have London.   Perhaps even moreso now.  

Let's see how things go tomorrow.

The willful arrogance and blindness of the fortunate few is daunting, if not discouraging.

They are so lost and sad, these walking dead.  Requiescat in pace.

Get right, and sit tight.

Have a pleasant evening.