“Thus, it should be understood that when pro-US figures use the term, 'rules-based international order,' they are not referring to anything analogous to the rule of law. Quite the opposite, they are using Orwellian language to describe a system in which essentially no rules can be established and/or observed, given that the dominant state has the prerogative to violate and/or rewrite “rules” at its whim.” Aaron Good, American Exception
Obviously while they are some similarities, it will take a high volume break to the downside to make a predictive analysis of the equity markets of today match up with the key metrics from two major price breaks fromt he past valid.
And that is a big 'IF' although certainly not impossible.
Wall Street Journal, 20 October 2019, Financial Markets Face Fresh Wave of Political Uncertainty: ‘There’s Literally Nowhere to Hide’
Market 'crashes' are low probability events.
Many times are the setups. But it takes the right kind of 'trigger event' to set the ball rolling.z
It is nice to know what the signs of an incoming storm are, and where the nearest safe haven may be, offering a sound harbor and, even better, a warm and cozy bar with good food and drink on dry land.
"I thought of this upside down debt pyramid when I was at Citibank in the early ‘60s. I first gave talks on it inside the bank, trying to influence the bank because I saw too much borrowing short term and lending long term. It was just awful! I kept on warning the bank, but was just brushed aside.
When Nixon closed the gold window I said, 'This is my chance to get out,' so I took it. [laughing] It was a great move on my part because I could buy gold and gold mining shares when gold was F$50 an ounce or less. Now Citibank is on the problem list because it has so many bad assets."
The first image is purported to be the original which he used in the 1960's. On an overhead projector perhaps, remember those?
It seems to have obtained circulation in newsletter writers, investment types, especially those with an interest in gold.
It became much more widely circulated after Nixon closed the gold window on August 15, 1971.
It gained some controversy in the debate between inflation and deflation. The pundits thought it sound in describing an inflationary scenario.
But they balked at Exter's notion that during a deflation that the economy would work its way back down the pyramid as well. They thought that this would require a return to barter and a systemic collapse.
I think it is moot because of the improbability of a deflationary collapse as compared to an inflationary one while a system is coherent, especially in a system of fiat money.
Granted if we are in a post apocalyptic world, then all bets are off. In which case I would like to have lead, in the form of bullets, and medical supplies and water filters as much as gold. I don't plan on it as a primary outcome though. lol
"Do not be so harsh towards others, so that God will not be equally hard on you. By the standards with which you judge, so too will you be judged. And with the measures which you apply to others, so too will they be applied to you. Why do you look so hard for the failings of others, and completely ignore your own, much greater faults?"
Matthew 7:1-3
"If I speak in the tongues of all men and of angels, but do not have love, I am just a noisy gong or a clanking cymbal. And if I have prophetic powers, and understand all the mysteries and know all things, and if I have faith, even enough to move mountains, but do not have love, I am nothing. If I give away all my possessions, and if I suffer so that I may boast about it, but do not have love, I have gained nothing.
Love is patient; love is kind; love is not envious or boastful, or arrogant and hard. It does not insist on having its own way; it is not easily angered or resentful; it does not rejoice in the misfortunes of others, but rejoices always in the truth. It bears all things, believes all things, hopes all things, and endures all things. Love never ends."
1 Corinthians 13:1-8
A key event this weekend, among many geopolitical events I should add, will be the vote on the latest Brexit plan in the British parliament.
Stocks were wobbly again today. The Dow Industrials led the charge lower, fueled by Boeing and Johnson & Johnson.
The results that Netflix announced finally sunk in, and today it gave up all the games of the week.
Smells like teen spirit, all around.
Mike Mulvaney said some things yesterday, repeatedly and in public, that pretty much put the fork in the Trump Administration's narrative about a malign and cynical abuse of US foreign policy. The jackals themselves, led by Romney and McConnell, are beginning to circle the kill. I don't know how the die hard supporters are spinning this, but it's all over but the lying, and stonewalling, and the histrionics. And the lucrative G7 meeting given by a no-bid contract to Trump's troubled Doral golf resort.
And on the other hand, someone should tell Hillary to go forward with quiet dignity. Her continued rantings about being thwarted by Russian agents everywhere is getting to be too much, too sad to watch. The proud and verbally acute can never seem to accept responsibility and blame themselves for their own failings. And so they invent enemies and conspiracies.
How are the mighty fallen.
I think the markets are going to break, one way or the other, out of this consolidation pattern. It is not clear to me which direction that may be.
The patterns are ambiguous enough that I would rather lay back and let the markets inform us, rather than trying to predict which way it will go by imposing some system on it. Perhaps some others can do this. I cannot.
Although I am still fairly persuaded that we are going to get a major break in the market, near to or exceeding 20%, between now and next July. There are a number of reasons for this, but most of them revolve around the theme of appearance vs. reality.
The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery. And we are certainly not there yet, by a long shot.
The US is a thinly disguised oligarchy, and lying and cheating are not only rewarded, they have become fashionable as long as one does not get caught.
So what then are we to do?
As it says at the bottom of the page on this blog: "Let us surrender our past to His abundant forgiveness, and trust our future to His loving kindness and tender mercy. Let us allow ourselves to be fashioned according to His will, not for His sake, but for our own. Remember to feed the least of His creatures, the birds and the animals. And be mindful of the hearts of those you meet, encouraging them with a kindness and a smile."
Let us pray for those whose hearts are hardened against His grace and loving kindness by greed, fear, and pride, and the seductive illusion and crushing isolation of evil.
We pray that we all may experience the three great gifts of our Lord's suffering and triumph: repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness. And in so doing, may we obtain abundant life, and with it the peace that surpasses all understanding.
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