05 October 2020

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - An Ocean of Mercy

 

“Love endures everything, love is stronger than death, love fears nothing.   Help me, Lord, that my eyes may see all with mercy, so that I may never suspect or judge from appearances, but look deeper for what is good and beautiful in others' souls, and then come to their aid.  Truth wears a crown of thorns.   Let all my nothingness be drowned in the ocean of your mercy.”

Maria Faustyna Kowalska

 

"Blessed are the merciful, for they will obtain mercy."

Matthew 5:7

 

Stocks were in rally mode today, with the major indices going out on the highs. 

The main suspects was Trump's return to DC after his weekend stint in the hospital, but more likely the better than expected PMI data.

And perhaps even more significant was the movement in the long end of the yield curve, which signals to some that the Fed's great experience for growth through inflation is succeeding. 

The VIX rose today, along with gold and silver, so this was not so much a clear 'risk on' event. 

And the Dollar slumped a bit. 

So taken on in overall context, this may have been a flash of optimism about the economy. 

Let's see how well the flash carries through into the week. 

Gold and silver have not yet broken out. 

 Have a pleasant evening.

02 October 2020

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Is Gold In a Falling Wedge - Weakness in The RecoveryTM

"Jim, lad, there be consequences an' then there be consequences.  Devil take 'em all, says I, and pass aft the rum." 

Robert Louis Stevenson, Treasure Island

"Foolishness has a knack of getting its way; as we should see if we were not always so much wrapped up in ourselves.  In this respect our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; they did not believe in plagues." 

Albert Camus, The Plague

"Distrustful Sense with modest Caution speaks;  It still looks home, and short Excursions makes;   But rattling Nonsense in full Vollies breaks;   For Fools rush in where Angels fear to tread."

Alexander Pope, An Essay on Criticism 

"Nemesis, the goddess of retribution and vengeance, the punisher of pride and hubris, waits impatiently for her meeting with us." 

Chalmers Johnson 


Stocks flopped hard this morning, on the news and Trump et al. have tested positive for Covid-19. 

This served to distract from the disappointing miss in the Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

 Non-tech managed to take a little of those losses back, but still finished in the red. 

I don't think it is reasonable to expect frankness in the disclosures about the progress of the President's health, but I do wish him and everyone else who struggles with illness such as this well. 

Gold and silver shook off the traditional hit for the Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

Still, they need to surmount the overhead resistance before one can say that they are back on the bull market track. 

Let's see what next week brings. 

As an afterthought, I have added a chart formation I have been thinking about for gold.

It is a falling wedge.

If it is so, and it breaks up and out, the move could be rather impressive.

Have a pleasant weekend.

01 October 2020

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Salvation and Sorrow - Non-Farm Payrolls Tomorrow


"They have treated the suffering of my people carelessly, saying, ‘all is well’ when there is no safety.  They act shamefully, they commit terrible offenses; and yet they are not ashamed, and do not even know how to blush.  They shall be found among those who are fallen." 

Jeremiah 6:14-15 

 "The rich man replied, ‘If someone is sent to them from the dead, then they will repent of their sins and turn to God.’  But Abraham said, ‘If they won’t listen to Moses and the prophets, they will not be persuaded, even if someone rises from the dead.’” 

Luke 16:30-31 

"A true opium of the people is the belief in nothingness after death, the huge solace, the huge comfort of thinking that for our betrayals, our greed, our cowardice, our murders, that we are not going to be judged.” 

Czeslaw Milosz, The Discreet Charm of Nihilism 

"The selfishness of an age that has devoted itself to the mere cult of pleasure has tainted the whole human race with an error that makes all our acts more or less lies against God.  It is better to find God on the threshold of despair than to risk our lives in a complacency that has never felt the need of forgiveness.   

Despair is the absolute extreme of self-love.  It is reached when a person deliberately turns his back on all help from anyone else in order to taste the rotten luxury of knowing himself to be lost.   It is therefore of supreme importance that we consent to live not for ourselves but for others." 

Thomas Merton 

 “Each day we are becoming a creature of splendid glory, or one of unthinkable horror.” 

 C. S. Lewis

 

Stocks rallied again today, led higher by big cap techs, with some surprising strength in the broader midcaps thanks to some speculations.

Gold and silver were higher, coming off a bit from the peak of their rallies.

Gold and silver both have some serious overhead resistance overhead before I might feel good about putting up a more substantial short term trading position.

Let's see how the metals and stocks fare after tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls report.

We are in a time of hysteria  and excess emotionalism, more than usual, as I cautioned years ago in my long term forecast.

We may reach a crescendo in this over the next 12 months or so.  The big changes occur slowly, then all at once.

The Dollar edged a bit lower.

If Brexit takes a toll on the Pound, the Dollar Index may benefit.  But the Euro remains the highest weight in the index by far.

We love our lies, and find our comfort in them.   And so we serve them, cherish them.  Complacent fools, fooling ourselves to death.

"If they won’t listen to Moses and the prophets, they will not be persuaded, even if someone rises from the dead.’”

Have a pleasant evening.

 

30 September 2020

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - I Am a Camera

 

"The inability to identify with others was unquestionably the most important psychological condition for the fact that something like Auschwitz could have occurred in the midst of more or less civilized and innocent people." 

Theodor Adorno 

 

"I am a camera, with its shutter open.  Someday, all of this will be developed, printed, fixed."

Christopher Isherwood

 

"I urge you, brothers and sisters, to be wary of those who cause divisions and undermine the faithful, in opposition to the teaching that you have learned.  Shun them.  For such people do not serve our Lord, but their own appetites.  And by clever words and flattery they deceive the hearts of the innocent and naive."

Romans 16:17-18 

 

It was a surprisingly volatile day in the stock markets, as equities came off their overnight lows, rallied strong through unchanged to lofty highs, but then, alas, faded back towards much more modest gains in the afternoon.

It was a big pop and unproductive flop.  

Note the action on the charts, how it ranged between the two Fibonacci retracement levels.

Gold and silver were also volatile, but both finished lower.  Silver more markedly so.

And so it was too with the Dollar, which had a nother ranging day, but finished slightly lower.

Lacking other guidance and direction, the markets may look to the Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

Although we ought to be mindful that behind the short term headline number will be looming job losses as the stimulaus programs run out, and large corporations release many thousands of employees.

Have a pleasant evening.