Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Risk On

 

Stocks went on a tear higher in the afternoon and went out near  the highs.

The VIX declined.

The Dollar lost the 91 handle.

Gold and silver fell a bit. 

It was a risk on day, all the way

Next week we will have the FOMC meeting.

There is the opportunity for a misstep, even a small change in words.

But the Fed is very market driven.

Gold and silver might have a bit of a tough week ahead, with the FOMC and the Comex option expiration

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Saving Private Equity

 

"The sense of responsibility in the financial community for the community as a whole is not small.  It is nearly nil.  Perhaps this is inherent.  In a community where the primary concern is making money, one of the necessary rules is to live and let live.  To speak out against madness may be to ruin those who have succumbed to it.  So the wise in Wall Street are nearly always silent.  The foolish thus have the field to themselves.  None rebukes them." 

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929

 

“There are two ways to be fooled.   One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” 

Søren Kierkegaard

 

“Foolishness is a more dangerous enemy of the good than malice.  One may protest against evil; it can be exposed and, if need be, prevented by use of force.   Evil always carries within itself the germ of its own subversion in that it leaves behind in human beings at least a sense of unease.   Against foolishness we are defenseless.   Neither protests nor the use of force accomplish anything here; reasons fall on deaf ears; facts that contradict one’s prejudgment simply need not be believed – in such moments the foolish person even becomes critical – and when facts are irrefutable they are just pushed aside as inconsequential, as incidental.” 

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Prisoner for God: Letters and Papers from Prison

 

Stocks did a sharp about face on the 'scoop' from Bloomberg today that Biden may be considering a sharp increase in the capital gains tax on millionaires.

Since Washington is in the back and forth negotiations on spending and revenue plans, the drama was probably a bit overdone.   But it does sell clicks and ad views.

Gold and silver retreated a bit from their decent highs and the dollar chopped sideways.

There will be a Comex option expiration on the precious metals next week.

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Tripping Along the Abyss

 

“Archegos’ meltdown had all the makings of a dangerous situation — largely unregulated hedge fund, opaque derivatives, trading in private dark pools, high leverage, and a trader who wriggled out of the SEC’s enforcement.”

Senator Elizabeth Warren

 

"Beware the leaven of the Pharisees, which is hollow hypocrisy.  There is nothing covered that shall not be revealed, and hidden, that shall not be made known.  Whatever has been said in the darkness shall be heard in the light: and what has been whispered behind closed doors shall be shouted from the roof tops."

Luke 12:1-3

 

The valuation debate du jour amongst the spokesmodels on neo-Bubblevision financial TV was whether, after a pullback, Bitcoin will rise to either $400,000 or $600,000. 

I mean, some guy said it.  All we did was endlessly repeat it without any counter-commentary.

Yeah, right.

It was risk off in the markets on an inflationary wave of expanding asset valuations today.

Gold and silver powered higher, which silver showing its hallmark volatility.

When it moves, it moves.

The dollar chopped sideways.

Stocks rallied into the close.

And no one can see it coming.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Control Frauds and Cryptic Valuations - A Market of Illusions

 

"Control frauds are seemingly legitimate entities controlled by persons that use them as a fraud weapon. A single control fraud can cause greater losses than all other forms of property crime combined.

Financial control frauds’ primary weapon is accounting.  Fraudulent lenders produce exceptional short-term “profits” through a four-part strategy: extreme growth (Ponzi), lending to uncreditworthy borrowers, extreme leverage, and minimal loss reserves. These exceptional profits defeat regulatory restrictions and turn private market discipline perverse. 

The finance sector is most criminogenic because of the absence of effective regulation and the ability to invest in assets that lack readily verifiable values.  Unless regulators deal effectively with the initial frauds their record profits will produce imitators. 

Mega bubbles produce financial crises." 

William K. Black, Recurrent, Intensifying Bubbles and Crises 

 

"Do not be deceived, God is not mocked; for whatever a man sows, that he will reap.  For whoever sows to the flesh will from the flesh reap corruption, but whoever sows to the Spirit will from the Spirit reap everlasting life.  And let us not grow weary while doing good, for in due time we shall reap if we do not lose heart." 

Galatians 6:7-9

 

When we look back on this period in time with the perspective of history, we will see markets dominated by control frauds and mispricing of risk that will seem painfully obvious.   Why do we not see this now?  Why did so few see it coming 2007, and in 2000? 

Perhaps because the money is too good, and our societal judgement is too corrupted, often willfully so.   

Still, bubbles have a surprising resiliency, as does evil in a hardened heart.  

And for the same reasons.

 

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