29 October 2021

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Risk On! - Here At the Quiet Limit of the World

 

“The world says: 'You have needs— satisfy them.  You have as much right as the rich and the mighty. Don't hesitate to satisfy your needs; indeed, expand your needs and demand more.  This is the worldly doctrine of today.  And they believe that this is freedom.  The result for the rich is isolation and suicide, for the poor, envy and murder.”

Fyodor Dostoyevsky, The Brothers Karamazov

 

"It is always the soul that dies first, even if it's departure goes unnoticed.  And it always carries the body along with it.  Man is nourished by the invisible, man is nourished by that which is beyond the personal.  He dies from preferring the opposite." 

Jacques Lusseyran, Poetry at Buchenwald

 

"We who lived in concentration camps can remember the men who walked through the huts comforting others, giving away their last piece of bread.  They may have been few in number, but they offer sufficient proof that everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one's attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one's own way." 

Victor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning

 

Stock had a risk on rally today, and went out at the highs for the day.

The VIX fell on the good feelings of bullishness.

The Dollar also rallied hard, taking back the 94 handle.

Gold and silver got clocked hard, but gained back only a little.

The physical gold stocks in Hong Kong continue to look like a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Autumn has arrived in force now, with deep chills overnight.

Have a pleasant weekend.

28 October 2021

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Litany in Time of Madness and Bubbles

 

"Few things are more destructive to Christians than anger.  Anger causes us to lose our self-control and to say and do things we would otherwise never consider.   Anger, if allowed to remain, turns into bitterness that eats away at our hearts." 

Henry Blackaby

 

“There is nothing so threatening to systemic evil as those willing to stand against it, regardless of the consequences.” 

James W. Douglass

 

"He will perish for lack of self-restraint; and will be lost because of an abundance of foolishness." 

Proverbs 5:23

 

"The Fates are just: they give us but our own; Nemesis ripens what our hands have sown." 

John Greenleaf Whittier

 

“The essence of a speculative bubble is a sort of feedback, from price increases, to increased investor enthusiasm, to increased demand, and hence further price increases.  Major speculative bubbles, as I argued in Irrational Exuberance, are always supported by some superficially plausible popular theory that justifies them, and that is widely viewed as having sanction from some authority figures.  These may be called new-era theories.” 

Robert Shiller

 

The 3Q advanced GDP number came in light enough to make investors think that the Fed will not reduce its morphine money injections to the markets through their Banks anytime soon.

But it was not bad enough to discourage hopes for outsized corporate profits to make up for last year.

Gold and silver are still being held down firmly below key overhead resistance.

The drain on physical gold in Hong Kong is getting serious, again.

Time to scrape out the physical from the ETFs (again)?

The Dollar dropped in keeping with trader sentiment about Fed dovishness.

Hold on to your hats. 

Have a pleasant evening.

 

 

27 October 2021

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Refuge of the Way - Third Quarter GDP Tomorrow

 

"Who of you is wise and understanding?  Show it by your good life, and by works done in the humility that comes from wisdom.  But if you have bitter jealousy and selfish ambition in your hearts, do not boast about it or deny the truth.  Such ‘wisdom’ does not come down from heaven but is worldly, unspiritual, and demonic.  For where there is envy and selfish ambition, there will be disorder and every evil practice. The wisdom that comes from heaven is first of all pure; then peace-loving, considerate, humble, full of mercy and good fruit, objective and sincere. Those who sow in peace reap a harvest of righteousness."

James 3:13-18


Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly are ravenous wolves. You will know them by their fruits. Grapes are not gathered from thorn bushes, nor figs from thistles."

 Matthew 7:15


"Nor will love be seen coming from the hearts of those who are fallen into wickedness: they are the fruit of hate, deceit, greed, fear, pride, possession, and aggression.  And they will not only forsake love by washing their hands of it, they will eventually come to condemn it, and persecute it— and thereby condemn themselves.

For the people of God love is the touchstone of faith, the way to know if what we believe is with Him, or from something else; if we are walking with Him, or with something else; if the one who speaks is speaking for Him, or for something else; if we are keeping Him in our hearts, or something else; if we love Him, or ourselves, or something else. 

Love does not speak with hate or fear or derision, but with the fullness of existence which is joy and mercy.  Love is ridiculed and trampled upon by that which is in opposition to His creation. When you are in doubt or confusion about what is true and what is false, look for the light of love.  This is the hallmark of the spirit in the world." 

Jesse, Love Is the Refuge of the Way


Stocks reached for those new highs again today, and flopped back down into the red, or at best unchanged in the case of the big cap, new era tech stocks.

I suspect stocks are priced for perfection, and the GDP number tomorrow has them a bit edgy.

After all, the basis of this bull market bubble is a ponzi scheme fueled by easy money.

And when the music stops, there will be a rush to the exits.

Gold and silver were up a bit.

The Dollar was down a bit. 

From my perspective, the new Bitcoin ETF is analogous to shooting  gerbils out of a cannon during the last tech bubble.  

You know, the one before the housing bubble.

I wonder what we should call this latest bubble?  

Have a pleasant evening.


 

 

26 October 2021

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Complacency and Conscience

 

“Stupidity has a knack of getting its way; as we should see if we were not always so much wrapped up in ourselves.  In this respect our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words they were human: they did not believe in plagues."

Albert Camus, The Plague

 

"In the Incarnation the whole human race recovers the dignity of the image of God. Thereafter, any attack, even on the least of men, is an attack on Christ, who took on the form of man, and in his own Person restored the image of God in all. Through our relationship with the Incarnation, we recover our true humanity, and at the same time are delivered from that perverse individualism which is the consequence of sin, and recover our solidarity with all mankind." 

Dietrich Bonhoeffe, Letters and Papers from Prison

 

“Religion used to be the opium of the people.  To those suffering humiliation, pain, illness, and serfdom, religion promised the reward of an after life.  But now we are witnessing a transformation: a true opium of the people is the belief in nothingness after death, the huge solace, the huge comfort of thinking that for our betrayals, our greed, our cowardice, our murders, that we are not going to be judged.” 

 Czeslaw Milosz, The Discreet Charm of Nihilism 

 

“A man who lies to himself, and believes his own lies, becomes unable to recognize truth, either in himself or in anyone else, and he ends up losing respect for himself and for others.  When he has no respect for anyone, he can no longer love, and in him, he yields to his impulses, indulges in the lowest form of pleasure, and behaves in the end like an animal in satisfying his vices.   And it all comes from lying — to others and to yourself.” 

Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov

 

As I noted the other day, rather than call this a 'stock bubble' it would probably more correct and natural to call it a 'ponzi scheme.'

Bubbles tend to masquerade as acts of God, or the madness of crowds.

The only madness of the crowds recently has been to trust in the same old schemes from the usual gang of con men and their mouthpieces.

Stocks did a pop and flop.

One of these days that sort of flop is going to translate into a swan dive.

The SP 500 and a couple name stocks are doing all the heavy lifting.

I suspect that insiders are handing off their gains to mom and pop, and their institutions.

Capital is rushing heedlessly into opaque risks, and is readying itself to be consumed.

Gold and silver were hit hard and early, for no particular reason.

They recovered much of their losses into the close.

The Dollar chopped sideways.

Keep an eye out for the GDP print for the 3rd quarter on Thursday. 

Have a pleasant evening.