Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Fearless, Into a Three Day Weekend - CrashTrak

 

"Bear market rallies, or 'relief rallies,' are sharp upward spikes in prices on the US equity markets.  They are fed by short covering.  Those who are short, or have positions based on the assumption that the stock market is going lower, are forced to buy stocks either from fear of losses, or because they are undercapitalized and overleveraged.  The leverage may be in terms of time (as in the case of stock options) or money (margin).

The bear market rally consists of a violent opening spike.  That spike will be up to the nearest strong overhead resistance as the short sellers panic.  Then the market will pull back, because there are no serious buyers yet to sustain the prices, and the early shorts have covered.  Also, insiders will begin to feed their dog stocks into the public markets.

The prices will pull back to the nearest support.  Once the bulls feel confident again, the buying will resume, this time more slowly as naive speculators begin to succumb to the 'good news.'  The highwater mark of the opening price spike will be a definite target for this secondary move higher.  Often the initial effort to find support fails, and the bullish sentiment will pull back and try to find stronger support from which to resume the price advance.

Very infrequently there is a 'failure to rally' and a failure to find support at a near support level.  Buyers (also known as 'the greater fool') are not to be found, and the dip buyers panic, and a freefall ensues.  This also can be quite breath-taking, as the insiders are selling not buying, and the small speculators are exhausted and starting to panic.  This is an uncommon event, but can be quite damaging if you are caught on the wrong side of it.  This is how we came up with the term 'chasing nickels on the freeway' to describe it.  Buying the dip in price in bull markets is easy money; buying the dip in bear markets is for gamblers.

The best way for most traders to play these markets is to stay out. The opportunity to be whipsawed is very high. Take a break. Go for a walk. The market will always be there. The greed of 'lost profits' pulls you back in, and then fear will take you out, on a stretcher if you are not careful. 

Controlling one's emotions in volatile markets is the primary challenge for experienced traders."

Jesse, Bear Market Rallies, 17 July 2008


US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day observance. 

Stocks were in rally mode today, what looked like a proper bear market rally.

Considering we have seven weeks of weakness and declines as we *finally* set that second low we have to say that it's about time.

Now let's see if bully can keep the squeeze going, or not.

With the general risk on atmosphere, the Dollar and VIX were lower.

The VIX is now back down to its 50 DMA which has marked a support level in the recent past.

Gold and silver were trying to break out this morning, but were smacked down lower in the general exuberance. 

Next week may be pivotal.

For the rest of the world, try to carry on with US guidance on Monday.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Flamboyant Deceits and a Spectacle of Vulgarities

 

"Undeniably great is the mystery of godliness:
He appeared in the flesh,
was vindicated by the Spirit,
was seen by angels,
was preached among the nations,
was believed on in the world,
was taken up in glory."

1 Timothy 3:16


"And there is no more powerful weapon against the devil’s wiles than kindly mercy and bounteous love, by which every sin is either escaped or vanquished.  This lofty power is not attained until that which is opposed to it has been overthrown.

What is more hostile to mercy and works of love than greed, which is the root of all evils?  Unless that vice is destroyed by lack of nourishment, it will grow in the heart as an evil weed taking root, until the heart springs up with the thorns and briars of vices rather than the seed of true goodness. 

Let us then resist this pestilence of evil and follow after love, without which no virtue can flourish, that by this path of love whereby Christ came down to us, we too may rise up with Him." 

St. Leo the Great, Meditation on the Ascension

"The light will be with you only a little while longer.  Walk while you have the light, so that the darkness does not overtake you.  For whoever walks in darkness does not know where they are going."

John 12:35


"The unsustainable will not be sustained.  And it ends in flamboyant deceits, and a spectacle of vulgarities."

Jesse


The economic data this morning was a bit weaker than expected. 

The markets took this as a 'risk on' signal, thinking that the weaker data would tend to temper the Fed's desires to shrink it's balance sheet and raise the benchmark rates more than what the markets expect.

So stocks rallied.

The Dollar declined a bit back down to the high 101 level.

The VIX decreased further, but still remains elevated.

Gold and silver were hit with this risk on sentiment but also as a follow on to the recent option expiration.

They did manage to take back most of their declines by the end of the day, shenanigans-wise.

I spent a quiet day watching lectures about the Civil war, most from the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library by Mark DePue, and taking care of Dolly who is recuperating from her surgery yesterday.

This reminds me so much of the in-home hospice I did for two years with the queen.  Living for and serving the ease and comfort of another, day by day.

Painful but peaceful, resigned to the good graces of God.

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Endless Wash and Rinse

 

"I will not mistrust him, Meg, though I shall feel myself weakening and on the verge of being overcome with fear.  I shall remember how Saint Peter at a blast of wind began to sink because of his lack of faith, and I shall do as he did: call upon Christ and pray to him for help.  And then I trust he shall place his holy hand on me and in the stormy seas hold me up from drowning...

And finally, Margaret, I know this well: that without my fault he will not let me be lost.   I shall, therefore, with good hope commit myself wholly to him.  And if he permits me to perish for my faults, then I shall serve as praise for his justice.  But in good faith, Meg, I trust that his tender pity shall keep my poor soul safe and make me commend his mercy. 

And, therefore, my own good daughter, do not let your mind be troubled over anything that shall happen to me in this world.  Nothing can come but what God wills.  And I am very sure that whatever that be, however bad it may seem, it shall indeed be the best." 

Thomas More, Letter to his daughter Margaret from Prison  

 

Just charts tonight. 

Dolly's prognosis is not good. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Shall We Stop This Bleeding? - A Shining City on a Hill

 

"It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue, and slander into truth, impotence into abstinence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into honor, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism, and sadism into justice.  Anybody could do it; it required no brains at all. It merely required no character."

Joseph Heller, Catch 22


"Many of our rich men have not been content with equal protection and equal benefits, but have besought us to make them richer by act of Congress.  By attempting to gratify their desires we have in the results of our legislation arrayed section against section, interest against interest, and man against man, in a fearful commotion which threatens to shake the foundations of our Union."

Andrew Jackson, Message to the Senate On the Veto of the Second Bank of the United States, 1832


"Each of you dwells in a cosmos of his own making, created out of his own fancies and desires.   You do not know the real world in which you live, and your thinking has no place in the real world except in so far as it is phenomena of mental aberration.  We know, and well we know by bitter experience, that no appeal for the right, for justice, for humanity, can ever touch you.”

Jack London, The Iron Heel


"I willingly believe that the damned are, in one sense, successful, rebels to the end; that the doors of hell are locked on the inside.   I do not mean that they may not wish to come out of hell, but they certainly do not will even the first preliminary stages of that self-abandonment through which alone the soul can reach any good.   They enjoy forever the horrible freedom they have demanded, and are therefore self-enslaved."

C. S. Lewis, The Problem of Pain

Stocks slumped badly today, purportedly on a warning from SNAP and the economic data from this morning, which fell a bit short on the PMI.

Unsurprisingly, they managed to take back quite a bit of their losses in the afternoon trade. 

The Dollar fell further, dropping into the 101 handle. 

Gold and silver rallied, and held most of it. 

Tomorrow is a not inconsequential option expiration for precious metals on the Comex. 

Dolly will be going in for surgery tomorrow, and her return will most likely happen at the end of the day. 

Old age is no joke, even for good little dogs. 

So unless something unexpected happens, there will likely be no commentary tomorrow night. 

Have a pleasant evening.